Q&A #1: What’s the House Line Now?
Short answer: Dems +6
Between the favorable political environment for Missouri Democrats, and the already stretched Republican supermajority, this is looking like the year that Dems finally take back some House seats.
Dems have their biggest opportunities in the suburbs. A bird’s eye view of the state House races shows Dems picking up two in St. Louis County – maybe one in North County and one in South County; two in Jefferson County – which given last week’s poll is a real possibility; two in Kansas City suburbs, for example the Corlew district would be ripe pickings if he left it and went to the Senate. And two from other pockets in the state, maybe one in Columbia and one in Springfield (the Helms district) or St. Joe (where Higdon is termed).
That’s a +8 scenario. However the expectation is that Republicans organizing experience, plus a considerable financial advantage will temper some of these gains. Says one Dem: “Upholding a Governors veto drove a lot of the financial investment in Dems the last couple years, cause even in a super minority one vote could matter when the threshold was 2/3. With a veto not being an issue the next couple years… investment in Dem legislative races is going to be a lot lower than folks are used to…”
So I’m using a +6 line right now. Filing closes next week….
Hancock: Everyone’s Investigating Mission Continues
Jason Hancock reports that the rumors are apparently all true… everyone – the St. Louis Circuit Attorney, the Missouri Attorney General, and the House Special Investigative Committee – is investigating how it is that the Greitens campaign came to possess the Mission Continues donor list without their permission. See it here.
Pull Quote: Experts in nonprofit law previously told The Star that if someone took the list from the charity without permission and used it for personal or political purposes, that could be considered theft or embezzlement… The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported last month that Greitens’ former assistant sent The Mission Continues donor list to Laub and another campaign staffer two months earlier than what the governor said in his settlement with the ethics commission.
Governor’s Team Strikes Back
Pot-Dispatch has the story (see it here)… The governor's trial is currently set for May 14 before Circuit Judge Rex Burlison, but Greitens plans to ask for the trial to be moved up to April 3… Greitens' defense team also plans to waive his right to a jury trial in favor of having a judge hear and rule on the case. Burlison has said he plans to keep the case in his courtroom.
The developments in the case came during a Monday morning status hearing on evidence, scheduling and upcoming motions. The defense also said it plans to file a motion to dismiss the case, alleging prosecutors misled the grand jury in providing instructions of law… Meanwhile, Greitens filed a motion Sunday night seeking the disqualification of a Harvard law professor hired to help prosecute an invasion of privacy case against the governor.
State representative Cloria Brown passed away after battling cancer. See the Post-Dispatch article here.
Cloria Brown did not gloat when she unseated Democratic state Rep. Vicki Lorenz Englund eight years ago. Rep. Brown, after all, knew what it was like to lose. Rep. Brown first ran for the south St. Louis County-based seat in 2008, losing to Englund. The two would face each other four more times, with Englund coming up short in every other race besides their 2012 match. “I do remember the first time we saw each other after my first loss,” Englund said Monday, recalling back to 2010. “We both hugged each other and cried.”
Rep. Brown, who represented a swath of south St. Louis County on and off since 2010, died Sunday (March 18, 2018) from cancer. She was 75.
“Cloria was a very hard worker,” Englund said. “She knocked on doors like crazy.”
During her time in the Missouri House, Rep. Brown introduced measures to ban texting while driving; supported a statewide prescription drug monitoring program; and pushed to shed light on sex trafficking.
“Cloria leaves a lasting legacy,” Senate Majority Leader Mike Kehoe…
Governor Greitens appointed Kenneth Lovelace, of Palmyra, to the State Soil and Water Districts Commission; Luke LeGrand, of Cape Girardeau, as the student representative of the Southeast Missouri State University Board of Regents; William Miller, of Sullivan, as the student representative of the Missouri State University Board of Governors; Michael McClaskey, of Castle Pines, Colo., to the Truman State University Board of Governors as an out-of-state member; Stephen Kenny, of Neosho, to the Missouri Real Estate Commission; and Dana Lopez, of Ozark, to the Missouri State Foster Care and Adoption Board.
Freedom Inc Fined
Freedom Incorporated was fined $8,125 by the Missouri Ethics Commission for several violations including failing “to file Direct Expenditure Reports for 741 expenditures totaling $139,383.82 on at least twenty-one campaign finance disclosure reports.” See it here.
Pursuant to Supreme Court of Missouri Rule 10.28(d), the 22nd Circuit Judicial Commission releases the following information relating to applicants for the circuit judge vacancy created by the resignation of Robert Dierker… Nathan A. Arunski, Deborah M. Bird, Michael A. Brockland, David A. Bruns, Steven J. Capizzi, Mary Pat Carl, Francisco J. Carretero, Nicole Colbert-Botchway, Michael J. Colona, Matthew J. Devoti, Mary C. Entrup, Micah D. Hall, Bridget L. Halquist, Heather J. Hays, Craig K. Higgins, Heather Highland, William Hogan, Teneil Kellerman, Jessica W. Kennedy, James Leightner, Michael P. Mahon, Jennifer Matthew, Susan McGraugh, Matthew C. Melton, Patrick L. Mickey, Patrick J. Monahan, Timothy G. O’Connell, Barbara T. Peebles, Lynne R. Perkins, Deborah L. Price, Calea Stovall-Reid, Larry D. Thomason, Jr., Matthew B. Vianello, Joseph P. Whyte, and Rochelle M. Woodiest.
Josh Hawley will be in DC tomorrow raising money. See the invite here.
eMailbag on MOScout Poll
The Dems should be spending the whole week recruiting candidates. You can’t beat something with nothing.
New Candidate Filings
Matt Heltz filed to run in House 121 as a Democrat.
Robert Smith filed to run in House 152 as a Democrat.
Angela Thomas filed to run in House 160 as a Democrat.
Dennis Lee Clinton (Democrat) withdrew from House 135.
Sonny Wilson (Republican) withdrew from House 102.
Still no one has filed in House 74. This is Rep. Cora Walker’s seat. Some folks think she will be filing for Senate 14; others that she will run for re-election.
Rick Mellon formed a candidate committee (Rick Mellon For State Representative) to run for House 39 as a Democrat.
Jeff Porter formed a candidate committee (Patrons For Jeff Porter) to run for House 42 as a Republican.
Tony Smith formed a candidate committee (Citizens To Elect Tony Smith) to run for House 140 as a Democrat.
Sarah Hickle formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Sarah Hinkle) to run for House 162 as a Democrat.
David Woody formed a candidate committee (Vote David Woody) to run for Clinton County Clerk Clinton as a Republican.
Tracey Perry formed a candidate committee (Tracey Perry For County Council) to run for Jefferson County Council, District 5 as a Republican.
Ethan Giertz formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Ethan Giertz) to run for Auditor Jasper County Auditor as a Republican.
Friends Of The St Louis Zoo was formed. It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Kathryn Jayne Drennen. And its deputy treasurer is Patrick Lynn.
Joanna Grossman and Jessica Almy added The Good Food Institute Inc.
Jordan Goldberg added National Institute for Reproductive Health.
Rachel Merlo added Google LLC And Its Affiliates.
John Schillo added Lundbeck LLC.
Eugene Yoscovits added Quicken Loans.
Kathering Casas deleted SAS Institute Inc.
Friends of the St Louis Zoo - $100,000 from St Louis Zoo Association.
Freedom Incorporated - $35,000 from Heavy Construction Association.
New Approach Missouri - $5,100 from Mitchell Hospitality LTD.