Tuesday, December 4, 2012

After Emerson, Where We Are

Here’s the list of people who have been mentioned in one fashion or another.

 

Top Tier

Peter Kinder, Lieutenant Governor.

Lloyd Smith, Republican Party ED.

Sarah Steelman, Former Treasurer.

 

It’s said that Kinder and Smith wouldn’t vie against each other, and there are some who think that Smith might not want to go to DC.  But as the statements (below) indicate, everyone appears to be keeping their options open.

 

Up and Comers

Jason Smith, State Representative.

Todd Richardson, State Representative.

 

Jason Smith has been the most aggressive so far; but Richardson  is also in the hunt.

 

Senators

Kevin Engler, State Senator.

Dan Brown, State Senator.

 

There’s no indication that Dan Brown is seriously looking at it, and Engler probably would have an easier time winning this if it would a multi-candidate primary (like say in 2014).

 

Long Shots

Clint Tracy, County Commissioner.

John Jordan, Sheriff.

Wayne Wallingford, State Senator-elect.

Scott Lipke, Former State Representative.

Jason Crowell, Former State Senator.

 

Crowell, like Engler, would have a better chance in a primary in 2014.  It’s said that James Harris is pushing Wallingford to get into the contest.  The Long Shots have little to lose by floating their names, but there’s not any momentum behind these names.

 

 

The Statements Parade

Peter Kinder: “I am certainly giving careful thought and consideration to this opportunity to represent the 8th District in Congress… It would be an honor to serve in Congress.  While I weigh this decision, I am mindful of the fact I was just re-elected Lieutenant Governor and must consider the people's trust in me to serve in that capacity for the State of Missouri. While it would be an honor to serve, this is a committee decision, and over the coming weeks I will be communicating directly to the members to gauge support for my potential candidacy…”

 

Lloyd Smith: “For nearly three decades, I worked on behalf of the 8th Congressional District while serving as the Chief of Staff to both Bill and Jo Ann Emerson. During that time, I was blessed to be able to get to know the people of the district and the issues of importance to the families of Southeast Missouri… Since Jo Ann announced her retirement, I have received numerous supportive messages from those I know and respect across the district encouraging me to seek the Republican Party’s nomination for Congress. I am humbled by this unsolicited support and will carefully consider this opportunity to continue serving the people of the 8th District…”

 

Jason Crowell: “My phone has been ringing non-stop since early this morning.  I have been called by constituents, activists, colleagues, voters and friends from all over Southern Missouri urging me to enter this race.  I have not had a chance to discuss this most recent of developments over with my wife and family.  At this time I have no idea about my future plans… While I am a loyal Republican many times I found myself at odds with what the special interests and particular party leaders expected me to do and always chose my constituents over politics.  I will continue to discuss how I might best help advance a common sense conservative agenda with my wife and family and Republicans in Southern Missouri….”

 

 

Did Jason Smith Get A Heads Up?

One House Republican believes that Rep. Jason Smith – who came charging out of the gates today – may have been tipped off.  Smith, this source says, dined alone with Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson last Thursday.

 

 

Be Glad You’re Not This Guy: Eddy Justice

Eddy Justice is the chair of the Republicans’ 8th Congressional District Committee which will work through this process next year.  I counted 93 members, who may all have experienced a slight inflation of the ego in the last 24 hours.

 

Eddy Justice statement: “The 8th Congressional District of Missouri has been very fortunate to have been represented by Jo Ann Emerson in Congress all these years.  We are very appreciative to her for her service and will miss her as she moves on to other ventures… The US Constitution and Missouri State Statute are very specific in how we move forward.  The 8th Congressional District Republican Committee, comprised of the chair and vice chair of each County Republican Committee and the chair and vice chair of each Legislative Republican Committee, is working diligently to make sure the process progresses in a smooth and timely manner. The 8th Congressional District has a high standard for what we expect from our Congressperson and it is our desire to make sure we nominate someone who is willing and able to live up to that standard.”

 

 

The LG Spot

One widely discussed aspect to the potential dominoes with Emerson’s seat would be the possibility that Peter Kinder would abdicate the lieutenant governors’ seat, offering the opportunity for Nixon to appoint a Democrat.

 

I heard two theories about who Nixon would appoint in such a case, both were constructed with a potential 2016 presidential bid in mind.  One said that he would appoint a LG who he trusted to run the state in his long absences, a John Watson for example, a trusted confidante.   The other thought he would go bold for effect – the first minority etc.  But as one said “it wouldn’t be anyone who would threaten Chris Koster’s future.”

 

There’s some question about whether the governor actually has the power to appoint a replacement.  The constitution says, “The governor shall fill all vacancies in public offices unless otherwise provided by law…”  And although there’s a statute which says he doesn’t appoint LG, it doesn’t provide for a contrary mechanism.

 

If this scenario came to pass, Republican might challenge in court.  The guess is that the governor’s power to appoint prevails, but we’ll cross that bridge if we cross that bridge….

 

 

Revolving Door

From Politico’s Influence: “Emerson is the latest lawmaker to quit for the lobbying and government influence world. And while this kind of migration has long been the way of Washington, lawmakers signing on with lobbying powerhouses while still representing constituents in an elected capacity is particularly unseemly, some government watchdogs say. ‘It's disappointing ... the revolving door is already a problem with lawmakers who aren't announcing their plans before leaving,’ Blair Bowie of the U.S. Public Interest Research Group tells PI. ‘This could really undermine citizens' confidence in government.’

 

“By law, Emerson herself cannot directly lobby her congressional colleagues for a year after leaving office, although nothing's stopping her from serving in an executive and leadership capacity as she will. The National Rural Electric Cooperative Association is a massive lobby, having spent at least $2.9 million on federally reportable lobbying efforts each year since 2003, federal records show. While much of its lobbying strength is in-house, the association has worked with several lobbying firms this year to advocate on a variety of energy- and environmental-related bills and issues, including Combast, Sell and Associates; Davis & Hartman; Porterfield & Lowenthal; Reed Smith and the Seward  Square Group, congressional disclosures show.”

 

 

Remole Fine

From Rep.-elect Tim Remole’s Facebook:  On November 28th, while on the Freshmen Legislator Orientation Tour in Springfield, Tim became sick with stroke-like symptoms. He was promptly taken to a local hospital to be observed overnight. He was released the following day after the doctors determined from multiple tests that he is healthy and doing well. Thank you to all those who were concerned and prayed for his health. He will be heading home and joining his colleagues on the freshmen legislators orientation tour again next week.

 

 

eMailbag: Omission on 8-CD List

Lobbyist: “Add Trent Summers to the list of folks looking at a run in the 8th.  He has deep ties in the district working for Ashcroft and Gov. Blunt.  His uncle was Bond's district guy in the area for years and has a rolodex of Republicans as big as round bale. And his wife counts the votes in Cape Co., which can't hurt... Might be a long shot but he is persistent, well positioned, and as hard a worker as anyone I've seen on the list so far…”

 

 

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

 

Bob Baker added Bob Baker.

Mark J Bruns , Chris Liese added Isle of Capri – Cape Girardeau.

Steven R Carroll added Missouri American Water.

Neal English added Innovative Tax Solutions.

Phil LeVota added Missouri Association of Trial Attorneys, Midwest Mediation & Consulting, The City of Independence Missouri, Metropolitan Community Colleges.

Richard I. Martin added Husch Blackwell LLP.

Rhonda K Beul deleted Missouri Family Health Council Inc.

Gregory S. Gaffke deleted CenturyLink

L Kent Gaines and Richard McIntosh deleted Luxco.

John Gillispie deleted University of Missouri.

Brian Hoesly deleted Pyramis Global Advisors Holding Corp.

Gary R. Kremer deleted The State Historical Society of Missouri.

Nancy K Lewis deleted Kingdom of Callaway Chamber of Commerce.

Chris Liese deleted H&R Block Management LLC, and Hershewe Law Firm.

Chris McGeown deleted Fidelity Investments Institutional Services Company Inc.

Stephanie White-Thorn deleted Missouri Attorney General’s Office.

 

 

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