Friday, September 7, 2012

30 Day Reports

The “cheat sheet” has been updated.  It is here.


There are now pages with all the financials from the 30 Day Reports for all the contested state House, state Senate and statewide races.


Next week I will have forecast revisions on state House and state Senate races, as well as my initial handicapping for the statewide races.


Statewide Races


Jay Nixon raised $981,935; spent $1,776,936; and has $6,304,788.

Dave Spence raised $1,537,700; spent $336,182; and has $1,446,510.


This is less important than other races because Nixon has more than enough to get his message out, and Spence is augmenting his fundraising from his personal wealth.  Each will be able to explain to the voters their case, but Nixon is clearly in a strong position.


Lieutenant Governor

Peter Kinder raised $146,075; received a loan of $40,000 from Tilley-aligned Missouri Leadership Committee; and finished with $18,260 on-hand.

Susan Montee raised $64,052 and has $185,200 on-hand.


Not great quarters from either candidate, but it’s a little shocking to see Kinder’s account so close to scratch with two months until the General Election.


Secretary of State

Shane Schoeller raised $324,797; spent $143,197; and has $284,794.

Jason Kander raised $145,667; spent $49,643; and has $956,036.


Kander retains a very large cash lead.  As for Schoeller, Rex Sinquefield totally saved his quarter.  Sinquefield contributed $250K to Schoeller this quarter.  Without that, Schoeller would have been sitting on $38K.


Attorney General

Ed Martin raised $41,884; spent $83,749; and has $193,597

Chris Koster raised $115,778; spent $121,526; and has $2,454,689



Cole McNary $28,825 raised; $23,793 spent; and $48,890 on-hand

Clint Zweifel raised $99,115; spent $30,892 and has $1,175,833 on-hand.


McNary took one of the smallest checks that Sinquefield has maybe ever written: $5,000.  Not even the extra $5 that makes his normal $5,005 contribution.



30 Day Reports Paint a Dire Picture for Republicans

Stepping back just a bit, these reports casts the state-wide Republicans as a party in some kind of disarray.  It is perhaps one of the weakest line-ups in memory.  Look at it:


US Senate – an apparently mortally wounded Todd Akin refuses to lie down and cede his position to any of a dozen alternatives, any of whom who could conceivably cut down the incumbent Claire McCaskill.


Governor – untested political neophyte Dave Spence is learning the game of politics in his first campaign, against a veteran politician with a deep bank account.


Lieutenant Governor – Peter Kinder was forced into a retreat from the gubernatorial race.  Two months out and he has $18K in the bank.


Secretary of State – Shane Schoeller is a state representative who barely edged out his competitors in the primary and – as mentioned above – would have almost as little as Kinder without the help of a single big check.


Attorney General – Ed Martin is always controversial.  He lives and runs very comfortably on the far right wing of the party. But there’s no indication his brand of Republicanism can win statewide – with less than one-tenth of the resources that his Democratic incumbent has.


Treasurer – another state representative with barely any money for voter contact.  Cole McNary has one twenty-fifth of Clint Zweifel’s cash on-hand, and lacks the incumbents name ID.



It’s unlikely, but Dems have a long-shot chance to sweep.



August State Revenue

From OA’s press release: “State Budget Director Linda Luebbering announced today that 2013 fiscal year-to-date net general revenue collections increased 6.6 percent compared to 2012, from $1.09 billion last year to $1.16 billion this year.


“Net general revenue collections for August 2012 increased by 2.8 percent compared to those for August 2011, from $634.8 million to $652.6 million.”


Interesting to note continued weakness in individual income tax collections… “decreased 1.2 percent for the year, from $773.8 million last year to $764.4 million this year… increased 0.7 percent for the month.”



Kehoe Writes Again

Sen. Mike Kehoe penned a fresh missive defending his auto tax bill against Governor Jay Nixon’s assault:


Once again it is necessary to correct errors, half-truths, and out-right misinformation relating to House Bill 1329…


As I noted in my previous letter, my strong convictions on the importance of HB1329 comes down to one word:  JOBS.  To drive away a staggering 14,000 transactions by the stroke of his veto pen, and then to have the temerity to use those numbers as a rationale for sustaining the very source that has caused the exodus from Missouri businesses, is ridiculous... 


HB1329 contains the following language (SS HCS HB1329, 144.072, lines13-15) relating to retroactively collecting taxes:  “*This act is remedial and retroactive, and applies to all transactions involving motor vehicles, trailers, boats, and outboard motors to the maximum extent permissible by law*.”  Note those last seven words: *TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMISSIBLE BY LAW*.  If it is illegal to collect taxes retroactively, and if HB1329 authorizes doing so only to the extent that it is allowed by law, then the governor and his Department of Revenue have no authority, nor any obligation, to send out tax-due notices or collect taxes retroactively.  This means that if the veto of HB1329 is overridden, there will not be any tax-due notices sent out unless the governor decides to do so.  As usual, Missourians pay the price in lost revenues and shed jobs for these political games…



$5K+ Contributions

Scott Sifton for Senate - $10,000 from Simmon Browder Gianaris Angelides & Barnerd LLC.

MADA Dealers Interested in Government - $50,000 from Missouri Automobile Dealers Association.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $50,000 from LPC Inc.

Committee to Elect Dr. Dan Brown for the 149th - $14,000 from Dr. Dan Brown for Senate.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Bank of America PAC

Southeast Missouri Central Labor Council Political Action Committee - $6,825 from Golf Tournament Fundraiser.




Happy birthday to former state Rep. Kathlyn Fares.


Saturday: Former Rep. John Quinn (62).


Sunday: former Speaker Rod Jetton (45), former Sens. Jack Goodman (39) and Delbert Scott (63), and lobbyist Jorgen Schlemeier (47, I think).