Monday, August 27, 2012

New Polls: Akin Down Ten

Two polls – one by Rasmussen, the other by Mason-Dixon – showed Sen. Claire McCaskill opening a wide gap on Congressman Todd Akin following the firestorm over his comments on rape and pregnancy.

Rasmussen had McCaskill up 48%-38%.  And the Mason-Dixon poll had McCaskill leading 50%-41%.

Democrats usually grumble about Rasmussen as a Republican-leaning polling firm (just as Republicans publicly discounted Public Policy Polling), but the Mason-Dixon findings appear to confirm that McCaskill is now the favorite.  The conspiracy theory for Rasmussen showing Akin down was additional pressure for him to shut the whole thing down.

There’s been no shortage of polls.  (Here’s another someone sent me.  But I’ve never heard of Gravis Marketing, and I couldn’t find there methodogy. Enjoy!)

Forecast

A lot can and will happen in the next ten weeks.  And I hope I’m not being blinded by current events.  However I do find it hard to imagine Akin winning back moderates, and Independents despite his apologies.  Claire “No Naps” McCaskill may not want to be called the favorite, but in my mind she definitely is now.  A line-up switch by GOP would obviously be cause for re-evaluation.

And

The polls disagree on the state of the presidential race.  Rasmussen finds it neck-and-neck with Obama at 47% and Romney at 46%. Mason-Dixon puts Romney up 50%-43%.

Noranda and Labor Strife?

In a new sub-plot within the Utilities Wars, folks are talking about the possibility of labor strife hitting Noranda.  Heartland News ran a segment on it a few days ago.  See it here.  According to the TV reporter, August 31 is the drop dead date on the stare-down between labor and management.

One observer wonders if this was somehow related to pro tem Rob Mayer’s early session rhetoric about “right to work.”   “Was it Noranda quietly pushing senator Mayer for right to work, knowing this contract was pending?  RTW, if passed, would have become law on Aug 28 with this contract expiring on Aug 31.  That would have fundamentally change this negotiation and Noranda’s bottom line (postitive for the company and negative for employees).”

House 87 Do Over

Last week, with a hope to resolve the primary between Reps. Stacey Newman and Susan Carlson, a circuit court ruled that a new election was in order.  It will take place September 24.  I expect this to be a lower turnout election.  The only people who will show up are those who never ever miss an election, and those who are engaged and hooked by the campaigns through voter contact.

In other words, this becomes a field duel now.

Rumorville: Lager for Floor Leader?

Is Sen. Brad Lager sending up trial balloons for a possible leadership bid in the Republican Senate Caucus?

Writes one source, “All the senators are kind of laughing it off.  I don’t know if Lager is putting out feelers, or if it is pure speculation feeding on itself.  No senator that I have spoken with has mentioned Lager calling them.”

Where is Tim Jones?

Answer from a press release: “SPEAKER-ELECT TIM JONES STANDING STRONG FOR PEOPLE OF MISSOURI AT NATIONAL CONVENTION  (EUREKA, MO) - Over the course of the next week, Tim Jones will be at the Republican National Convention in Tampa Bay, Florida, fighting for the common sense conservative positions and values Missourians hold dear.”

The convention – delayed by a looming tropical storm – really gets going tomorrow.  I’ll try to have some bits on it if anything of state consequence occurs.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Richard S Brownlee III, Rodney Gray, Tami Holliday, Peter Levi, Susan Moore, and Michael Moorefield deleted KC Arts Group.

$5K+ Contributions

MO Drive Fund - $40,000 from Drive Committee.

Teamsters 245 PAF - $10,000 from Drive Committee.

Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $10,000 from O’Brien Law Firm P.C.

Missourians for Health and Education - $10,000 from Gilmore & Bell.

Unite Here Tip Missouri State and Local Fund - $10,000 from Unite Here.

Credit Union Political Action Committee of Missouri - $10,000 from Community America Credit Union.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Friends of Todd Richardson.

Citizens for Ed Emery - $25,000 from Ethelmae Humphreys.

CWA District 6 – Political Education Committee - $17,851 from CWA COPE.

Scott Sifton for Senate - $25,000 from MO Senate Democratic Campaign Committee.

Bank of America Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Bank of America Corporation State and Federal PAC.

Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $25,000 from Robb & Robb LLC.

Missourians for Koster - $15,000 from Reliant Care Management Company LLC.

Missourians for Koster - $5,005  from Jeffrey Hartnett.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 frm BNSF Railway Company.

Freedom of Road Riders PAC - $7,350 from Matt Hill.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Tom Flanigan, Scott Swain (42), Jefferson Thomas and Super-aide Kit Crancer.

MOScout News

The secretary of state should be publishing the candidate list for the November general elections tomorrow.  I am finishing up the “General Election” book, about 300 pages of race-by-race analysis of every state House and state Senate race.   My plan is to have it done by Friday – something to argue about over the grill nest weekend.