Thursday, August 23, 2012

This Week in Akin

So Todd Akin proves he can more pressure than anyone currently in Missouri politics.  It’s been Crowellesque, this display of disregard for what other politicians think.

Where from here?  The consensus is that he gets a reprieve as the spotlight turns to the Republican National Convention.  But if the abortion issues continues to incite fervor, he might remain a topic of conversation.

In the meantime, he’s raising peanuts, begging to try to hit his $100,000 mark.  The next set of polls will be critical.  I will be surprised if Akin isn’t in trouble when those polls hit.  He may hold on to most Republicans, but he’ll get shredded by Independents.

This is the establishment’s hope: little money and a drop in the polls.  Then they’ll swoop in and try once more to tempt him, maybe dangling the presidency of some tiny Christian college somewhere…

 
Claire McCaskill will raise money and wait too for September 25.  She doesn’t want to spend money if he’s not the one, and she doesn’t want to hurt him in the polls too early.  If this is right, then the last six weeks of this campaign are going to be a holy unleashing of gazillions in pent-up money.  Other statewide candidates may want to try to get out ahead of the tsunami.  We’ll see.

Akin Bits

On Akin’s Biology Beliefs

NYTimes’ Gail Collins writes about theory of the delighted womb.   Read it here.

Akin Makes Letterman

Last night’s Top Ten List: “How You Know Your Congressman is an Idiot.”

Akin was the punch-line at #1.  Read it here.

What Say You?

Pressure mounts on the other Republican statewide candidate to explain where they are on the issue of the day (Todd Akin, with him or agin him).  Read it here and here.

1998: Blamin’ Akin

“This is not the first time Todd Akin has sunk the Republican ticket.  In 1998, there was a casino ballot initiative because of a lawsuit filed that would have prohibited casinos from operating anywhere but the river.  Casinos spent millions to drive out voters

“Approximately 1,500 - 1,800 votes in close House races would have brought Republicans control of the State House of Representatives then.  People involved with the House Majority Fund back then all blamed Akin’s goofy lawsuit and the accompanying ballot initiative for getting all the casino money dumped against R candidates.”

Ketcher Asks Veto Session Question

On Twitter: Brad Ketcher‏ @BradKetcher: “Wonder if Mo GOP will lose interest in overriding Gov Nixon's veto of anti-contraception bill in wake of Akin?  Bet so.”

Answer:  It is just not in their super majority DNA to back down.  The override goes on.

Inside the Akin Apology TV Buy

St. Louis Market network buy - $85,067 – runs through August 27. See KSDK invoice here.

Kansas City Market network buy - $70,416 – runs through August 27.  See WDAF invoice here.

New Media, Old Media

The Akin affair really seemed to validate old media.  It was an old fashioned television interview which got the party started.  And although twitter and social media helped create the groundswell and ignited the outrage, in terms of providing information, they were mostly unreliable.

The national blogs were consistently breathless and inaccurate, with anonymous sources claiming to know what advisers close to Akin were thinking.  Meanwhile here in Missouri, politicos were willing to say the truth: we don’t know what he’s thinking, who he’s talking to; he’s not really one of us.

It also helps that there was very little action with enormous amount of speculation.  The daily paper was able to accurately convey the breakdown of support and the drama of the situation without the dozens of false starts that was the hallmark of the minute-by-minute coverage.

And a Non-Akin Bit

Three qualified to run as Independents in November: Jim Nash in House 2 (against incumbent Casey Guernsey); Eddie Osborne in House 54 (against incumbent Denny Hoskins); and Jack “Skip” Johnson (against incumbent Steve Cookson).

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Mark S Bryant added Swope Community Enterprises.

James R Moody added Diamond Game.

John E Bardgett Jr deleted Touchpoint Autism Services Inc. and St. Louis Public Schools.

Erika Leonard deleted Touchpoint Autism Services Inc.

Brian Millner and Kim Tuttle deleted Toughpoint Autism Services Inc. and Lounge Concepts.

John R Parris deleted John Britton Associates and Lounge Concepts.

$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Dempsey for Senate.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Roy Pfautch.

Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $25,000 from The Simon Law Firm.

The Committee to Elect Michael Shuler - $6,017 from John Nelson.

Missourians for health and Education - $10,000 from Husch Blackwell LLP.

Missourians for Health and Education - $10,000 from Polsinelli Shughart.

Citizens for Talbert - $5,005 from Chariton County Democratic Central Committee.

Spence for Governor – $10,000 from Menlo Smith.

Spence for Governor – $50,000 from William Holekamp.

Spence for Governor – $50,000 from Robert Obrien.

Spence for Governor – $15,703 from RGA Missouri PAC.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Swing State Media’s Neal Swanson.

Friday: International Institute’s Anna Crosslin (62).

Sunday: Bob Holden, Rep. Anne Zerr (58), Gary Burton (67), and former Rep. Ray Salva (65).