Monday, October 22, 2012


Senate 1 Poll: Sifton Leads

A poll that was leaked to me over the weekend shows Rep. Scott Sifton leads Sen. Jim Lembke in Senate 1.    However the partisan make-up of the poll appears to inflate the Democratic nature of the district and may therefore exaggerate Sifton’s lead.


The deets: 400 respondents, October 11-14.


Sifton leads Lembke 32% - 27%.


Sifton also lacked the unfavorables that plague Lembke.  Sifton’s favorables were at 32% with only 9% unfavorable.  Lembke’s favorable were also at 32%, but with 27% unfavorable.


Interestingly, the poll tested on the abortion issue, thought by some to be a weak spot for the pro-choice Sifton in the district with a substantial Catholic Democratic population.  But 56% were pro-choice, believing abortions should be “legal in all cases (26%)”  or “legal in most cases (30).”   On the pro-life side 19% said abortion should be “illegal in most cases”  and 16% “illegal in all cases,” adding up to 35%.


The partisan breakdown of the respondents was 44% Democrat; 24% Republican; and 31% Independent.



Public Policy Polling: Shifts in Statewide Races

Public Policy Polling released its latest Missouri poll last night.  See it here.



Romney 52% - Obama 46%


Real Clear Politics’ blend of polls has Romney +10%.  Rasmussen’s Oct 17 poll also has 10 point Romney advantage 53-43.




McCaskill 46% - Akin 40% - Libertarian Dine 6%


Poll also says if Dine supporters end up going for a major party candidate, they choose Akin 2:1 over McCaskill.  Rasmussen has McCaskill 48 – Akin 40.



Nixon 51% - Spence 40%


This a narrowing from 19 points spread at the start of the month.


Lieutenant Governor

Montee 43% - Kinder 43%


Montee’s unopposed time on TV is given credit for this shift.


Attorney General

Koster 48% - Martin 38%


Double digit lead for Koster.



Gov’s Approvals

PPP has Nixon’s approval at 47%, disapprove at 34% with 18% unsure.  Rasmussen has Nixon’s approval still firm at 60% (23% strongly approve; 37% somewhat approve).



Looking Toward January

Looking at next session, the expectation is that future pro tem Tom Dempsey will dump the dual-track committees which existed under Rob Mayer’s tenure.


During the last two years an education bill had seemingly equal chances of going to David Pearce’s Education Committee or Jane Cunningham’s General Laws; a utilities bill might end up in Brad Lager’s Commerce Committee or Jason Crowell’s Emerging Issues Committee; an economic development bill could have been shunted to Chuck Purgason’s Fiscal Oversight Committee or Eric Schmitt’s Economic Development Committee.


This system evolved due to Mayer’s divided vote victory as well as his sometimes troublesome habit of un-deciding and re-deciding decisions.


Next year’s bill tracking on the Senate side should be more linear.




Looks like Peter Kinder will finally launch his TV ads on Friday – ten days out.  See KSDK contract here.    One observer: The schedule suggests most of the news is sold out. He's also buying some Prime Time that is pricey and very likely to result in his spots being zapped by people watching on DVR's.



NYTimes reports that Stan Herzog gave $1 million to a Romney SuperPAC.  Read it here.



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Richard S Brownlee III, Rodney Gray, Tami Holliday, Susan Moore, Michael Moorefield added The University of Kansas Hospital Authority; and deleted The University of Kansas Medical Center, Missouri Sports Hall of Fame, Friends of Arrow Rock, Missouri Cable Telecommunications Association, Tradwind Energy LLC and Mediacom Communications.


Mark J Bruns, Gary Burton, Neal English, Jim Foley, Andy Foley, Don Soph, Chris Liese and Dawn Heidbreder added Missouri American Water



$5K+ Contributions

Citizens for Casey Clark - $7,500 from Safer Families for Missouri.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $7,121 from Realtors Political Action Committee-MO.

MO Republican Party - $40,000 from Lembke for Senate.

MO Republican Party - $15,000 from Romine for Senate.

MO Republican Party - $50,000 from Americo Services Inc.

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $10,000 from Dempsey for Senate.

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $19,685 from Realtors PAC-Missouri.

Romine for Senate - $7,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.

Missourians for Ed Martin - $90,000 from Republican State Committee.

Citizens to Elect Paul Curtman - $13,098 from House Republican Committee.

Montee for Missouri - $10,000 from Langdon & Emison.

Lembke for Senate - $10,000 from Citizens for Ed Emery.

Citizens for Good - $6,506 from House Republican Campaign Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $25,000 from Friends of Cloria Brown.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $1Citizens for McCasherty.

House Republican Campaign Committee – $22,000 from Anne Zerr for State Representative.

House Republican Campaign Committee – $12,500 from Schnuck Markets Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $100,000 from Citizens for Diehl.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $7,000 from Citizens for Marsha Haefner.

House Republican Campaign Committee – $50,000 from Citizens for Timothy Jones.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Ann Wagner for Congress.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from American Federation of Teachers COPE.

Citizens for Jeff Hoelscher - $10,031 from RPAC-MO.

CWA District 6 – Political Education Committee - $68,000 from CWA COPE.

Friends of Special Kids - $10,000 from Durham School Services LP.

CP of Missouri - $14,000 from Elect Cynthia Davis.

Friends of Robert Cornejo - $28,474 from House Republican Campaign Committee.

Vote Schnaare Committee - $5,500 from Stanley Schnaare.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $5,100 from People for Solon.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Advance America.

Clint Zweifel for Missouri - $10,000 from Hoisting Enginners Local 513 Political & Educational Fund.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $100,000 from Democratic Governors Association – Missouri.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Simmons, Browder, Gianaris Angelides & Barnerd LLC.

Scott Sifton for Senate - $15,000 from Democratic Senatorial Committee.




Happy birthdays to Rep. Chris Kelly (66) and House candidate Caleb Rowden (the big 3-0).