Tuesday, October 23, 2012

American Viewpoint: Kinder Leads

Pushing back against the Public Policy Polling poll released Sunday night, one observer briefed on a recent American Viewpoint poll (conducted October 16-18, likely voters, including cell phones, with a margin of error of 3.5%) shared its highlights.



Romney 52%, Obama 43%, 3% don’t know.


Lieutenant Governor

Kinder 44%, Montee 34%, 6% don’t know, 15% undecided.


About the Crosstabs

“Kinder far stronger among men and amazingly competitive among women, given the issues of the past year. Also indicates Kinder’s long public opposition to ObamaCare continues to be helpful to his case, as GOP parlays Obama’s unpopularity in Missouri…. Look for Montee to be linked at the hip and shoulder to Obama for the next two weeks because of her prominent role as his 2008 Missouri campaign spokeswoman and her failings in auditing Obama stimulus money, which were also issues in her 2010 loss.”



House Leadership Races

Consensus still favors Rep. John Diehl over Rep. Mike Leara for floor leader.


Rep. Jason Smith is thought to be in front for the speaker pro tem spot.  Rep. Denny Hoskins is a close second, according to one source.  But Smith’s secret weapon is his tenure.  He’s a senior and therefore won’t tie up the spot for four years.


And it’s too close to call right now between Reps. Mike Cierpoit and Dave Hinson for the assistant floor position.



Caucus Calendars

House Republicans will meet November 7, the day after Election Day, to vote on its leadership.


Senate Republicans will meet the next day, on November 8.  They will caucus again in mid-November to start crafting their legislative agenda.



HRCC Targets Expanded

The House Republican Campaign Committee has upped their budget and increased their target list.


HRCC will be involved in fifty races this cycle.  In some, it may be as little as doing a poll to make sure that the incumbent is safe.  In others, it may be a five-piece mail program.


Evidence of the enlarged budget can be seen in new $5K+ checks coming in even at the two-week mark.  Rep. John Diehl sent $100K recently to HRCC, and today there’s $50K from Steve Tilley’s old campaign war-chest.


The bigger budget means that HRCC will likely attempt to reach for some stretch districts.  The theory for House Republicans is that winning or losing these races in a redistricting year can have eight-year implications.  That is, if you win these districts this year, it’s easier to defend them over the next decade than try to unseat a Democratic incumbent.


One Republican says that St. Louis County is a place they’re looking to expand the map.  But St. Louis County is a sloppy mess, politically speaking.  In the same place you might have Mitt Romney up ten point and Todd Akin meanwhile down nine points.  It’s not a clean wave.


That means that despite the bluster of picking up new Democrats seats – Jeanne Kirkton and Genise Monticello are mentioned – they’re just as likely to have to defend Rick Stream and Cloria Brown if Akin shrapnel sprays their direction.



Senate 25

It’s personal for Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson.  Or at least that’s the way the Terry SwingerDoug Libla race looks.  Emerson’s cut a TV commercial for Libla.  One person from Emerson’s camp is calling that “a first.”


Emerson normally plays nice with conservative Democrats, but rumor is that the roots of her differences with Swinger run back to the recent redistricting tangle where Swinger was uncooperative.




The Labor-Management Council of Greater Kansas City came out with its endorsements on ballot issues: Yes on Prop A; Yes on Prop B; and No on Constitutional Amendment 3.



A Todd Akin aide oddly tweeted that if Claire McCaskill were a dog she’d be a “bullshitsu.”  Read it here.  I mean it’s just unbelievable.  The candidate manages to stay on message for the debate and then the next week the aide flies off.  Dude, tie her to Obama and talk about jobs.  You have the rest of your life to be clever.



Shane Schoeller continues his Show-Me Voter ID Tour.   Memo to Schoeller camp: It looks like “naming rights” after your guy takes $400,000 from the president of the Show-Me Institute to call your next campaign trip a Show-Me Tour.



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


James Harris added Bommarito Auto Group.



$5K+ Contributions

Vote Steve Mitchell - $10,000 from Steve Mitchell.

Schoeller for Missouri - $5,005 from Citizens for Timothy W. Jones.

Chase Higinbotham for Circuit Judge - $5,800 from Michelle Higinbotham.

Citizens for Our Library and Our Community - $50,000 from Civic Progress Action  Committee.

MO Democratic State Committee - $10,000 from National Rural Electric Cooperative Association.

Freedom PAC - $40,000 from QC Holdings Inc.

Committee to Elect Jeff Roorda - $5,577 from UFCW 655.

Lyda Krewson for Alderman - $6,937 from Mike Owens for State Representative.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Students First.

Laclede Political Action Committee - $10,000 from Laclede Gas Company.

Laclede Political Action Committee - $40,000 from Laclede Gas Company.

Citizens for Bill Hickle - $6,800 from Phelps County Republican Central Committee.

Bank of America Missouri Political Action Committee - $35,000 from Bank of America Corporation State and Federal PAC.

Missourians for Dokes - $8,000 from Clarkson Jewelers.

Missourians for Health and Education – $10,000 from Commerce Bancshares Inc.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $50,000 from Friends of Tilley.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $7,121 from Realtors Political Action Committee – MO.

Jackson County Democratic Coalition - $6,000 from Integrity In Law Enforcement.




Happy birthdays to former Reps. Rebecca McClanahan (61) and Bryan Pratt (40).




To the family of former state senator Irene Treppler who passed away Sunday morning.