Monday October 29, 2012

Mason-Dixon Poll

Over the weekend the Post-Dispatch and the Star released their joint poll of the statewide elections.  See it here.

 

It’s become a minor sport to knock the poll that the Post does every cycle.  In the summer it had Todd Akin running third in the Republican US Senate primary.  Four years ago it had Jeff Harris leading the Democratic attorney general primary.  Thus Republican cheered the tightening races while Dems thought the results smelled about two or three points too far right…

 

 

President – Romney 54%, Obama 41%.

US Senate -  McCaskill 45%, Akin 43%.

Governor – Nixon 48%, Spence 42%.

Lieutenant Governor – Kinder 46%, Montee 41%.

Secretary of State – Schoeller 43%, Kander 40%.

Treasurer – Zweifel 42%, McNary 39%.

Attorney General – Koster 51%, Martin 37%.

 

Court Plan Amendement – Yes 21%, No 56%.

Local Control – Yes 50%, No 28%.

Tobacco Tax – Yes 52%, No 40%.

Healthcare Exchange Prohibition – Yes 57%, No 27%.

 

 

Akin, McCaskill Use Poll for Fundraising

Both Todd Akin and Claire McCaskill used the poll in their latest fundraising appeal.  McCaskill was imploring her allies to give because the race might be closer than they think.  (And closer than she thinks; note the “eat my hat” pledge).  More impressive than rhetorical bravado though was the fact that McCaskill sent Susan Montee $25,000 late last week.
Claire Uses Poll

I don't think I buy this poll showing us up only two points on Todd Akin. If that poll's right, I'll eat my hat. But there's more at stake here: if that poll's right, we could very well end up losing this race.

 

We know elections in Missouri are always close. I'm working as hard as I can, making sure this race doesn't slip away. Are you with me?

 

Will you make a $5 donation to help us reach our $1 million October fundraising goal and have the resources to finish strong?

 

Todd Uses Poll

Today the Akin Campaign highlighted a new poll conducted by KMOV-TV, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, and the Kansas City Star shows the race between Todd Akin and Claire McCaskill in a statistical dead heat.

 

"Missourians know that while she might not talk like it in Missouri, in Washington,

DC Claire McCaskill votes like a big government liberal," said Rick Tyler, senior

adviser to the campaign.

 

 

Rex Profile in WSJ

The Wall Street Journal ran an interview/profile with Rex Sinquefield over the week.  See it here.

 

Not much new information, except for the closing line which implies that he has vast riches still illiquid, and that it might change in the future.  It’s the sort of thought that could send chills down the spines of some Missourians this Halloween…

 

"When Dimensional gets sold," he says, "that's when I'll really be able to give money away."

 

 

Money Notes

Looking at the large checks below, here are a few observations:

 

HRCC Targets

House 90 - $38K to Rep. Rick Stream against Deb Lavender.

House 94 - $10K to Rep. Cloria Brown against Vicki Englund.

House 114 - $38K to Becky Ruth against TJ McKenna.

 

HDCC Targets

House 3 - $13K to Rep. Tom Shively against Lendell Shumake.

House 15 - $13K to Jon Carpenter against Kevin Corlew.

House 20 - $13K to John Mayfield against Rep. Brent Lasater.

House 70 - $12K to Bill Otto against Eugene Dokes.

House 132 - $6K to Charlie Norr against Rep. Melissa Leach.

House 135 - $13K to Casey Clark against Rep. Lincoln Hough.

 

 

Nixon Sucking Labor $$$ From Other Dems?

Labor organizations continue to send five-figure checks to Jay Nixon’s campaign almost daily.  One wonders what the bank accounts of the other state wide Dems would look like if Nixon wasn’t sucking most of the labor money up.  But you can hardly blame labor for placing so many chips on Nixon.  He is the stopper in the governor’s mansion that can keep paycheck protection, right to work and other labor-toxic measures from becoming law.

 

 

Freedom Gets Checks

Freedom is still the place to go to give your ballot issue the spotlight in the KC African American community.  Checks from A Safer Missouri ($17,500) and Brighter Future ($50,000) made their way over the weekend.

 

Also, on Friday The Missouri Ethics Commission fined Freedom $175,000 for multiple campaign finance violations.  See the consent order here.

 

 

Adams, Woodruff Hit With MEC Fine

Dating back to their 2010 Senate 14 campaign, former University City mayor Joe Adams, consultant David Woodruff and their treasurer Gloria Nickerson were fined $82,000 for multiple campaign finance violations.  See the consent order here.

 

 

Numbers Guy on MO Paradox

Returning once again to the “Missouri Paradox,” that is why Democrats are dominating statewide offices while Republicans are dominating the state House and state Senate.

 

From my “Numbers Guy” 

I agree that money (and being in the majority to raise money), status quo maps, weak statewide Republican candidates and the extra effort in the last weeks of the campaign are all factors in this paradox.  Some definitely more than others: money is significantly more important than say what a candidate does 3 weeks before the end of the election.  But in my opinion, the answer is unquestionably centered in the partisan distribution of voters throughout the state.

 

Look at the top of the ticket for candidates seeking to represent Missouri in 2008 (Governor) and 2010 (US Senate).  In both of those races, the 5 most populated voting authorities (St. Louis City, St. Louis County, St. Charles County, Jackson County, and Kansas City represented between 40-42% of the total votes cast.   In both of those years the Democrat profoundly won, by 10 points in 2010 and 36 points in 2008, those areas.

 

The point is that these heavily populated areas, especially the cities, are going for Democrats up to 84% while in the other counties they are only going for democrats between 30-45%.  Thus, while Democrats get elected to statewide office with regularity, it is because their voting base is the entire state which is basically split 50/50.  On the state senate and representative level, with smaller districts, Democrats in St. Louis city are running in 90% Democratic districts while candidates in say Franklin County are running in 45% Democratic districts.  That 6% deficit (from a 51% win) is incredibly difficult to overcome, so Republicans win a majority in the legislative seats, but don't compete as well at the state level.

 

I am confident it is the most significant factor explaining how Republicans have the majorities in the legislature while Democrats have the statewide offices.  If the state’s population was redistributed to produce partisan uniformity, every district would be a 50/50 district.

 

See his spreadsheet in the Special Reports section here.

 

 

$5K+ Contributions

Citizens fir Casey Clark - $6,720 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Friends for Fallert - $10,000 from Democratic Senatorial Committee.

House Republican Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Drury Displays Inc.

Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $300,000 from The Missouri Bar.

Citizens to Elect Charlie Norr - $5,708 from House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Mayfield for Missouri - $6,512 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Mary Nichols for State Rep - $5,074 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

MO House Democratic Campaign Committee - $9,500 from Committee to Elect Richard McCane.

MO House Democratic Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Jake Hummel Campaign Fund.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $15,000 from Comprehensive Health Systems.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $50,000 from LPC Inc.

Committee to Elect Jeff Roorda - $7,428 from UFCW Local 655.

Missouri’s Future - $10,000 from Holman Schiavone LLC.

MO Republican Party - $200,000 from HRCC Inc.

Scott Sifton - $38,793 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

MO House Democratic Campaign Committee - $8,250 from Friends of Steve Hodges.

MO Petroleum Marketers + Convenience Store Assoc PAC - $7,774 from U-Gas Inc.

Scott Sifton for Senate - $5,500 from Planned Parenthood Votes.

Romine for Senate - $15,000 from Missouri Republican Party.

Montee for Missouri - $25,000 from McCaskill for Missouri.

Committee to Elect Bill Otto - $6,777 from Missouri Democratic Campaign Committee.

Committee to Elect Jon Carpenter - $6,405 from Missouri Democratic Campaign Committee.

Schoeller for Missouri - $100,000 from David Humphreys.

Citizens for Shively - $6,486 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee

Missourians for Ed Martin - $100,000 from David Humphreys.

Scott Sifton for Senate - $8,793 from Planned Parenthood Votes.

Missourians for Equal Opportunity - $414,000 from Missourians for Responsible Government.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $5,100 from Citizens to Elect Rocky Miller.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Roy Pfautch.

Citizens for Stephen Webber - $8,334 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Missouri’s Future - $10,000 from Robb & Robb LLC.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $20,000 from Missouri Health Care Association PAC.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $60,000 from Carpenters’ Legislative Improvement Committee.

Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Myrna Blair.

Jay Nixon for Missouri – $20,000 from Plumbers & Pipefitters Local 562 Voluntary Political Fund.

Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Hoisting Engineers Local 513 Political & Educational Fund.

Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Andrew O’Brien.

Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Thomas McDonnell.

Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Union Pacific Railroad Company.

Spence for Governor - $1,000,000 from David Spence.

Mayfield for Missouri - $6,512 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Friends of Cloria Brown - $9,914 from House Republican Campaign Committee Inc.

Committee to Elect Beck Ruth - $14,204 from House Republican Campaign Committee.

Committee to Elect Beck Ruth - $24,150 from House Republican Campaign Committee.

Romine for Senate - $14,569 from Missouri Republican Party.

Romine for Senate - $12,461 from Missouri Republican Party.

Romine for Senate - $16,877 from Missouri Republican Party.

Citizens for Shively - $6,486 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Schoeller for Missouri - $200,000 from RSLC Missouri PAC.

Citizens for Casey Clark - $6,720 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Friends of Rick Stream - $37,969 from HRCC.

Freedom Incorporated - $17,500 from A Safer Missouri.

Freedom Incorporated - $50,000 from Show Me a Brighter Future.

Committee to Elect Jon Carpenter - $6,405 from Missouri House Democratic Campaign Committee.

Committee to Elect Bill Otto - $6,777 from Missouri Democratic Campaign Committee.

 

 

Birthdays

Happy birthday to KCPL’s Cara Hoover.