Thursday, November 1, 2012


Ed Martin Says It’s Close, Post is “An Arm” of MO Dems

In an email blast this morning:



With just five days left, I wanted to touch base with you regarding the campaign. In the last 24 hours, a new poll now shows Ed Martin within three points. These results are due to the hard work and dedication of all of the volunteers in the state who have tirelessly helped the campaign.


To the liberal left's credit, they have done their best to discredit our campaign's efforts and have used misleading polling by the St. Louis Post Dispatch, an arm of the Democratic party, to attempt to halt our momentum. Despite these feeble attempts to stunt our momentum, in the last few weeks, our campaign has hit its stride….



Online Money Magic for McCaskill

From last night’s email blast:



I'll keep this brief: we're only $14,319 away from breaking our one-month fundraising record, and it couldn't come at a more important moment in this race…



Why Network

Last night before trick or treating, I caught the newscast here in St. Louis.  All the ads for the entire hour (national then local) were political.  Q: Who’s winning?  A: TV stations.


What was most interesting to me was the Senate 1 ads.  Scott Sifton against Jim Lembke.  There was one pro-Lembke ad; and two ani-Lembke ads (paid for by trial attorney’s Missouri’s Future committee).


Given the district they’re running in, it seems a waste to buy network time.  They’re buying a huge audience outside the senate district.  A cable TV buy could be much more surgical and efficient.  And in fact the initial Missouri’s Future ad buy appeared to be on cable.


So why network?  The answer may be that network (especially network news) remains the most effective way to reach the most reliable voters: seniors.   And it make sure you get that critical audience, you pay whatever you have to.



NRSC Funneling Money Through State Committee to Akin?

National Journal reports that a cash infusion will help bolster Congressman Todd Akin’s ad budget into the final weekend.   See it here.


Pull Quote:  “GOP Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin and the state party are making a joint ad buy in the neighborhood of $700,000 for the closing days of the race -- a huge buy compared to the congressman's previous small October buys.


“The cost of the buy is greater than what Akin held in his campaign account at the end of last month. Akin finished September with just $533,000 in the bank. And as of Oct. 17, the Missouri Republican party only reported $375,000 in its campaign account. The National Republican Senatorial Committee declined to comment on the ad buy, but the state party's ability to finance the bigger buy could have come from a cash infusion from the NRSC.


“If the NRSC spent money to fund the advertisement, it would be a reversal for the committee, which pulled out of the Missouri Senate race after Akin's controversial August comments on ‘legitimate rape’ rarely causing pregnancy.”



New Ads

Republican incumbent Reps. Noel Torpey and Brent Lasater are running a joint TV spot.  See it here.  The two are running in solid Democratic districts.



The St. Louis Beacon reports a last minute ad buy by the Now or Never PAC which – funded by Rex Sinquefield and David Humphreys – had supported Sarah Steelman in the primary.  See the ad here.



And a new “ad” from Akin.  It’s an “ad” because despite their press release there’s no way this is ever actually going to be shown on a television.  Reasons: they don’t have the money to buy a minute commercial; it’s a snoozer of an ad; any commercials they run has to have an attack portion to make up ground; and the audio quality is off.  Better to call it a web video.   See it here.



Prop B goes harder after “big tobacco” showing cigar chomping exec congratulating themselves on their negative ad.  See it here.




Blogger Randy Turner has Al Jazeera’s coverage of the McCaskill-Akin race.  See it here. Spoiler: no bombshells.



Prop R is on the ballot in St. Louis City.   Some Republicans wonder if it’s just another nail in the coffin in which they’re already lying.    Writes one: “As a minority political group, it will kill us for the remainder of my lifetime anyway.”



Jones On The Air

Speaker Tim Jones has scheduled a number of appearances on 97.1 FM in St. Louis, Fox radio.


Today - Thursday, November 1- 4:00 to 6:00pm – The Dave Glover Show "Election Preview"

Saturday, November 3 - 8:15am – The Randy Tobler Show - Discussing ballot propositions.

Tuesday, November 6 - 7:00 to 9:00pm – Election Coverage and Early Results with Jamie Allman.



Tweet of the Day

Doug Galloway ‏@douggalloway  “MO political junkies are asking the Q: Next Tuesday, will #mosos website perform better than the primary election? Let's hope so...”



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Heath C Clarkston and Harry Gallagher deleted Trans Union LLC.





Senate Dems Campaign Committee Picking Wrong Battles?

The continued flow of Democratic money to Reps. Joe Fallert (running in Senate 3) and Terry Swinger (running in Senate 25) cheers Republicans who think they have those districts banked.



$5K+ Contributions

Friends of Mitch Richards - $47,034 from House Republican Campaign Committee.

Friends for Fallert - $10,000 from Democratic Senatorial Committee.

Friends to Elect Cole McNary – $50,000 from Ina Tornallyay.

Citizens for Vicki Lorenz Englund - $6,165 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $25,000 from Sam Fox.

Friends for Fallert - $11,644 from Missouri Democratic State Committee.

Citizens for Swinger - $10,000 from Democratic Senatorial Committee.

Citizens to Elect John Wright - $35,000 from Rollins Capital LLC.

Missouri Health Care Association PAC - $10,000 from Delmar Gardens Management Services.

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $10,000 from Dempsey for Senate.

Freedom PAC - $12,300 from Missouri Petroleum Marketers & Convenience Store Association.

MO Democratic State Committee - $25,000 from Sanders for Jackson County.

MO Democratic State Committee - $35,000 from Jay Nixon for Missouri.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from C.O.G. Leasing Company.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from HCW Development Company LLC.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Callahan for Missouri.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $7,500 from CWA District 6 Political Education Committee.

Friends of Melissa Leach - $14,446 from HRCC Inc.

Doug Libla for Senate - $10,000 from Dempsey for Senate.

Doug Libla for Senate - $7,000 from Dempsey for Senate.