Tuesday, August 14, 2012

Leara To Challenge Diehl?

Rumor has it that Rep. Mike Leara will announce – as early as today – that he is challenging Rep. John Diehl for majority floor leader.


Leara has been expected to seek the speaker pro tem position, but apparently has had a change of heart.


Stay tuned….



Tilley Resigns

Yesterday Steve Tilley resigned his state representative seat.  Excerpts from his resignation letter are below.  It announces a new chapter in his life, one which will include “consulting” on both public policy issues and campaigns.


News reports said that Noranda signed up as one of his first clients.


As a former speaker, Tilley will offer his clients a unique set of qualifications.  He has first-hand knowledge of the rules of the House, an unparalleled understanding of the current composition and disposition of the House Republican Caucus, and political campaign experience.


Also – don’t forget – he controls a campaign committee with $1.1 million in the bank.


While it’s expected he will register as lobbyist, the sense I get is that he plans to do more “issue quarterbacking” than walking the halls day in, day out.


What it Means For Veto

The practical impact on House Republicans is negligible.  While the timing – before next month’s veto session which would have been the most natural end point before his term expries in January – was surprising, the move itself feels like old news.  It’s been well-rumored for months now that Tilley would be headed toward the government relations industry.


House Republicans may move Tim Jones into an interim speaker slot and even have early elections for the floor leader position to account for the vacancy.


Tilley’s absence will mean one less Republican vote on the overrides.  However both the auto-tax and the contraceptive coverage bill are expected to have enough to votes to override.



Tilley’s Resignation Letter

Dear Friend


I hope everyone is enjoying their summer and it was great to see you all at summer caucus last week. I am writing to inform you of my decision to resign my Speakership effective 11:59 p.m. on Monday, August the 13th, 2012. This is not a decision I came to lightly. However, after prayerful consideration, and discussion with my friends and family this is the right course for my daughters and I…


Over the past eight years I sometimes put the interest of the Caucus and The House ahead of my family, however my decision to resign early is a decision that I made with my daughters and puts my family first. I will continue to practice optometry, but as all of you know I enjoy campaigns and public policy and will be consulting on both.


I choose to leave early because I did not want to be a paid consultant while serving as the Speaker of the House. I have discussed this with our Speaker Pro-Tem Shane Schoeller, and our Speaker-Elect Tim Jones . They have been very gracious and I am grateful for their friendship…


While I may no longer be a member of the House, I will not be far away.  Do not hesitate to ask me for help, guidance, assistance, or fellowship. While I welcome leaving many aspects of being a State Representative, and the Speaker, I will certainly miss the friendships that have developed over my tenure.



Steven Tilley




SurveyUSA has a new poll.  Like ours, it also has the presidential race in Missouri as a one-point race; and it also has Governor Jay Nixon up about a dozen points.


We differ on the US Senate race.  They have Todd Akin leading Sen. Claire McCaskill by 11 points.  We have it neck-and-neck.


See it here.



A Peek Inside the Primary Vote

Republican Primary

603,120 Republican primary votes (US Senate), much higher than the 420,000 projection I and others were using. The increase is due to the vigorous Senate race, plus two hotly contested down ballot races – SOS, and LG.


St. Louis Region

St. Louis and St. Charles accounted for 21% of the Republican primary vote.  (I had expected 23% of the vote from this region).


Sen. Scott Rupp won this area.  He took 46.2% in St. Louis County and 69.2% in his home St. Charles County, against Rep. Shane Schoeller’s 39% and 22.4%, and Sen. Bill Stouffer’s 14.7% and 8.3%.


Southwest Missouri

The Southwest Counties pillared by the cities of Jasper and Springfield accounted for 16%. (I expected a little more, 17.5%, from this region).


Just as Rupp won the east, Schoeller won the southwest.  Schoeller took Jasper with 41.6% and Greene County with 56.7%


Akin ran stronger here than expected winning both Jasper (41.2%) and Greene County (39.3%).

Bill Randles ran evenish with Dave Spence in Jasper (34.9% to 40.7%)


And Brad Lager also beat Peter Kinder in this area of the state, winning Jasper 43% to 41.5% and winning Greene County 48.2% to 37.7%.



Democratic Primary

291,972 Democratic primary votes (LG), a little lower than the 300,000 projection I was using.  That can be attributed to no top of the ticket race.


St. Louis Region

St. Louis City and St. Louis County accounted for 37% of the Democratic primary vote.  This is a little higher than expected.  Things went as expected, except that Bill Haas took 2nd in St. Louis County, running 30 points behind Susan Montee.


Kansas City/Jackson County

Kansas City and Jackson County only produced 12.7% of the vote, a little lower than expected, but with St. Louis, the two urban coasts hit their usual 50% of the Democratic primary vote.

Tweets of the Day

Kevin Gunn ‏@kevindgunn: Look$ like $peaker Tilley i$ re$igning from the Hou$e to $pend more time with his kid$.


Jeff Mazur ‏@jmaz: Often didn't agree with him (e.g. Rush Bust) but always found @TeamTilley to be a willing listener and a keeper of his word. Wish him well.



Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:


Kim Greenberg added Amylin Pharmaceutuicals Inc.



$5K+ Contributions

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from David Johnson.

Stand Up Missouri - $7,500 from World Acceptance Corporation.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $5,100 from  Friends of Andrew Koenig.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $5,150 from Ruzicka for State Representative.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $5,500 from Friends of Kevin Elmer.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $11,200 from Friends of Michael Bernskoetter.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $12,000 from Chuck 4 State Rep.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $13,210 from Committee to Elect Dr. Frederick.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $17,500 from Citizens to Elect Don Gosen.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $18,487 from Citizens for Ryan Silvey.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $20,800 from Friends of Rick Stream.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. - $22,500 from Committee to Elect Tom Flanigan

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc. – $25,500 from Citizens for Riddle.


Cash Commentary

These are the contributions form caucus members to HRCC which powered their summer caucus to raise over $600K.




Happy birthday to former Sen. John Loudon (45) and Nancy Cross.