Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Auto Tax Override

It’s unclear whether the House will even attempt an override on the bill today.

Speaker Tim Jones (he’ll be voted into that position today), like his predecessor Steve Tilley, appears loathe to put members of his caucus into a situation where they have to take tough votes for something that won’t pass.  Though having voted for it regular session, it hard to see how much more damage comes from repeating the vote now.

It probably depends on where their vote counts stands.  And there are various vote counts out there.

The consensus position seems to be that there are 18 Democratic votes for the bill.  But another observer insists that when push comes to shove, there’d be a few more, say 21 or maybe even 22, that would vote for the measure because of what they’ve been hearin from their local municipalities.

On the Republican side, an earlier vote count had 88 Republican votes, but that may have come under some pressure easing to the 84 or 85 area.

The magic number to override is 109.

It does appear that Governor’s Jay Nixon appointment of Ray Weter to the job of commission of Christian County, and Steve Tilley’s resignation have increased the degree of difficulty for the override.

And

One observer who has dealt with Nixon over the years thinks it’s a mistake for the House to back down after the direct mail pieces.  According to his view, they’re just making life harder for themselves if they don’t push back on Nixon’s bullying tactic.

Today in the Halls

The expectation is that we’re looking a single-day veto session.  But there still is potential for some drama.

Will we catch Rep. Ryan Silvey checking out Senate office space?

Is Rep. Mike Leara’s insurgent challenge to Rep. John Diehl gaining any traction?

Rep. Doug Funderburk for Utilities Chair?  Rep. Steve Cookson for Education Chair?  Any of these rumors have legs?

Will either Sen-elect Jamilah Nasheed or Sen. Maria Chappelle Nadal make any peace offerings?

Will Sen. Jason Crowell break down in tears on the floor and admit, “I love you all.  I really do….”?

Environment Brightens for Dems

On September 7, 2008 – four years ago - Rasmussen’s generic congressional poll had Democrats ahead of Republicans 45% to 37% foreshadowing a terrible year for Republicans.

On September 12, 2010 – two years ago – Rasmussen’s generic congressional poll had Republicans leading Democrats 47% to 38% foreshadowing a disastrous for Democrats.

Right now we’re in a toss-up situation…

8/26/2012 – Dem 42%; GOP 42%

9/2/2012 – Dem 42%; GOP 43%

9/9/2012 – Dem 44%; GOP 42%

Republicans in Missouri seem to still exude a certain confidence.  And it is possible that Missouri has tilted rightward, but I wonder if their optimism isn’t misplaced, especially considering their battered statewide slate.  We’ll see….

The Coming Dean of the Senate?

From the Facebook of Sen. Scott Rupp: “I attended the retirement ceremony of my fellow senators that will not be returning next years. That means at the age of 38 I am now the State Senator with the most seniority in Missouri. That is just down right weird. Good think I lost all that hair so I can look the part.”

Akin Watch

Go to the peerless John Combest and see, all the Todd Akin stories are still about how he should or won’t drop out of the race.

As Richard Callow tweeted: “MO Farm Bureau announcing its continuing endorsement of Akin is another good day for McCaskill. #revisitthecontroversy”

Bits

KC Star’s Barb Shelly zings Jay Nixon as a governor without a party with presidential aspirations.  Read it here.  Pull Quote: “The governor did attend the Democratic National Convention last week. Other delegates said he was quite friendly, in his folksy kind of way, but seemed more interested in kibitzing with delegates from places like Iowa than with fellow Missourians.”

Jefferson City News Tribune hiring: “Do you have a serious love for fashion, travel and homes? Do you have a desire to tell engaging stories about issues facing women and their families?”  See it here.

Lobbyist Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Pamela Fichter deleted Missouri Right to Life.

$5K+Contributions

Schoeller for Missouri - $10,000 from Lucas Cattle Company.

Schoeller for Missouri - $10,000 from CNS Corporation.

MO Democratic State Committee - $20,000 from Jay Nixon for Missouri.

Montee for Missouri - $10,000 from I.B.E.W Educational Committee.

Missourians for Fair and Impartial Courts Committee - $10,000 from Gray Ritter & Graham P.C.

CWA District 6- Political Education Committee - $15,807 from CWA COPE.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Dollar, Burns & Becker L.C.