Monday, April 2, 2012
Senate Battleground Districts
Today under the Special Reports is a detailed look at six competitive Senate districts this cycle: Senate 1, 3, 17, 19, 21, 25. All of these are held by Republicans now. An early projection is for Dems to pick up two of these seats.
When added with the new Senate 7, that would bring the Democratic caucus from 8 today to 11 in January 2013, still one vote shy of the amount needed to sustain a gubernatorial veto.
And in the 2014 cycle they will “give back” the gain from Senate 7, as the new Senate 10 comes up for election.
And
I plan to get out a House Battleground Districts report later this week. Both of these reports are looking at districts where the two political parties are likely to be putting their resources. After the April fundraising reports are out, I will look more closely at races – both Senate and House – where the primaries are important.
April Quarter Estimates
I have a romantic fondness for the good old fashioned whisper number. But alas instead here are some crude estimates of how statewide elected did during the last three months. (We’ll get the real numbers in two weeks.) For each I’ve surfed the Missouri Ethics Commission website for reports of large contributions. There are two databases: those over $5K, and those over $500. The latter is no longer reportable by law, but some candidates appear to be continuing to report numbers voluntarily. (An asterisks below indicates that the candidate does not appear to be reporting amounts of $5K or less).
By taking their January cash on-hand number and looking at their expenditures from that quarter as well, (making some minor adjustments where reasonable), I arrive at an estimated cash on-hand for this quarter.
Governor
Jay Nixon reported $1,536,072 through MEC reports. Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $6.1 million.
Dave Spence reported $542,134 through MEC reports. Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $2.6 million.
Lieutenant Governor Dems
Susan Montee reported $84,490 through MEC reports. Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $175,000.
Judy Baker reported $42,500 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $120,000.
Sara Lampe reported $2,000 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $13,000.
Fred Kratky reported $0 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $40,000.
Lieutenant Governor GOP
Peter Kinder reported $79,500 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $1.25 million.
Brad Lager reported $100,000 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $870,000.
Attorney General
Chris Koster reported $865,480 through MEC reports. Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $1.9 million.
Ed Martin reported $71,500 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $300,000.
Secretary of State
Jason Kander reported $135,001 through MEC reports. Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $500,000.
Scott Rupp reported $18,250 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $175,000.
Shane Schoeller reported $46,500 through MEC reports. Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $200,000.
Bill Stouffer reported $30,000 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $280,000.
Treasurer
Clint Zweifel reported $70,256 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $900,000.
Cole McNary reported $3,000 through MEC reports.* Estimated April Cash On-Hand: $95,000.
If
If these numbers are in the ballpark, there will be some consequences:
Dave Spence may write a new check to bring the money gap closer so as to ensure that RGA sees him as worth a large end-of-cycle investment.
Incumbent Peter Kinder and Sen. Brad Lager – their balance of power unchanged – are nearing a point of no return in their game of chicken. Four months until Primary Day.
Rep. Sara Lampe will no longer be considered a legitimate LG candidate.
The Ed Martin for AG team may hit the panic button when they realize just how far behind they are in fundraising, leading to email blasts and twitters full of hyperbole.
There will still be no break-out Republican secretary of state candidate, while primary-less Rep. Jason Kander’s cash stash will loom larger.
There will be fresh questions of Rep. Cole McNary’s viability as a candidate, making future fundraising even harder.
New Candidates / Withdrawals
Filing closed on Friday.
House 93
Bob Burns entered this race to run as a Democrat. This is the district which Rep. Scott Sifton exited to run for Senate 1. Joe Montecillo is also a Democrat in the race. He is the ex-husband of Rep. Genise Montecillo, and Burns’ entry appears designed to encourage him to drop out. Burns is a former staffer to Sen. Claire McCaskill. He ran for state representative in 2006, losing to Jim Lembke (52-48).
House 3
Mayor Richard Detweiler dropped out of this race, leaving former state representative Rebecca McClanahan as the only Democrat.
FERAF Opposes New ESP Amendment
From the press release: “The Fair Energy Rate Action Fund (FERAF) announced its opposition to new legislation in Missouri that would allow utilities that are awarded a rate increase to retroactively charge consumers that higher rate for the time it takes to conduct a rate case. This new retroactive double rate increase would apply to electric, gas and water consumers and would increase Missourians' utility bills by tens of millions of dollars each year.”
In Commerce Committee last week, Chair Brad Lager’s attempt to find some compromise on the Early Site Permit issue between the utilities and their customer ran into a snag. There was a new amendment which – as I understand it – allows a second “true-up” during the rate hearing process. In other words, higher rates, faster.
I know I’m cynical here, but it seems like both sides are looking for a reason to disagree.
Bits
Word is that Rep. Jake Hummel and John Rizzo will be taking the reins of the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford raised over $20,000 in her last quarter. From the Facebook page: “We did it! More than $20,000 has been raised for Oxford for Senate since I publicly announced I was running on March 15 and formed my committee on March 16…”
Rep. Jay Barnes will hear a bill mandating DESE to buy software to detect “anomalous test results,” i.e. cheating. It’s been alleged that some school districts have been fudging their standardized tests. See Barnes’ committee agenda Here. (Meets today at Noon)
Jetton Can’t Shake the Bug
Former speaker Rod Jetton is making his comeback. He’ll be doing a subscription-based political news service… sound familiar? It’s called Political Bug, and one thing that’s different is the price-tag. Jetton is charging $10,000/year for his insights. And he offers a “concierge service” which runs $25K. Read Jake Wagman’s story on it Here.
Lobbyists’ Principals Changes
From the Pelopidas website:
Sherry L Doctorian deleted Ceridian Corporation.
$5K+ Contributions
Citizens for Safe Courts and Kids - $15,000 from St. Louis County Economic Council.
Citizens for Safe Courts and Kids - $15,000 from St. Louis County Port Authority.
Citizens for Safe Courts and Kids - $10,000 from Industrial Development Authority of the County St. Louis.
Citizens for Safe Courts and Kids - $10,000 from Business Finance Corporation of St. Louis County.
Citizens for Safe Courts and Kids – $7,500 from Monsanto Company.
Citizens for Victor Hurlbert - $5,100 from Hurlbert CPA LLC.
Doug Libla for Senate - $100,000 from Eagle Investment Corporation.
Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Lloyd Ivey.
KCS Rail PAC - $10,000 from Kansas City Southern.
Spence for Governor - $5,000 from Harold Wiese.
Spence for Governor - $5,000 from John Gentry.
Spence for Governor - $10,000 from Drury Development Corp.
Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $25,000 from Missouri Senate Campaign Committee.
Clint Zweifel for Missouri - $10,000 from Kenneth McClain
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Kansas City Power and Light Company.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from Gori, Julian & Associates PC.
Lembke for Senate - $25,000 from Dempsey for Senate.
Lembke for Senate - $25,000 from Schmitt for Senate.
Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from United Food & Commerical Workers Local #655 Elect Political Fund.
Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Lithoflex Corp.
Missourians for Koster - $25,000 from Stueve Sigel Hanson LLP.
Normandy Township Regular Democratic Club - $9,165 from Karen Pierre.
Our Children, Our Future - $25,000 from Boehringer Ingelheim.
Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from Lewis, Rice & Fingersh LC.
Yes for Cares - $15,000 from Cottleville Professional Firefighters.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $500,000 from Democratic Governors Association.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from IBEW Educational Committee.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Nicholas Karakas.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Thomas Green.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $10,000 from Lisa Wendt.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $12,500 from Shaffer Lombardo Shurin.
Jay Nixon for Missouri – $25,000 from Ken McClain.
Judy Baker for Missouri - $10,000 from Judith Baker.
Slay for Mayor - $25,000 from Simmons Browder Gianaris Angelides Barnerd.
Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from Centene Management Company.
Citizens for Talbert - $5,000 from William Talbert.
Kander for Missouri - $5,000 from Sosland Companies Inc.
Kander for Missouri - $5,000 from Kenneth McCalin.
Schoeller for Missouri - $5,000 from Citizens for Timothy Jones.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Lathrop & Gage LLP.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Fred Palmer.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Lynn Britton.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Lloyd Carmichael.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Marie Carmichael.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Schulz & Summers Engineering Inc.
Jay Nixon for Missouri - $5,000 from Microsoft Corporation Political Action Committee.
Birthdays
Happy birthday ACLU’s John Chasnoff.
And congratulations to the mighty Jason Rosenbaum on his marriage to Lauren Todd over the weekend.