Monday, December 19, 2011

Riddle for Senate

Rep. Jeanie Riddle will announce today that she is officially running for the new Senate 7.  Senate 7 is the new Mid-Missouri district.  It’s defined by Callaway and Audrain Counties on the western side, Ralls on the north, Montgomery on the south and Lincoln on the east.


It’s said that she’s lined up endorsements from Sens. Dan Brown, Mike Kehoe and Brian Munzlinger. That would give her three of the four senators whose current districts comprise the new 7th.  No word on Sen. Scott Rupp.  His Senate 2 district contains fast-growing Lincoln County.


Riddle also has won the support of former state representative Steve Hobbs, who had been considered a possible opponent.



Diehl for Floor Leader

Rep. John Diehl has started working on his floor leader bid, and looks to be the clear choice right now.  I’ve heard no other names floated.


In addition to helping recruit House candidates in the expected battleground region of Jefferson County, he’s been raising money.  He had about $160K on-hand last quarter.  That’ll likely rise to $250K by the end of this quarter. (As a side note, my number cruncher says that Diehl’s new district, House 89, has the highest median household income in the state… $117,471. Yowza!)


Diehl has reached out and garnered support from the four corners of the state in order prevent his leadership bid from becoming a regional contest.



MOScout Poll: It’s a Jobs Election in Missouri

We polled again last week.  Here are the findings:


Missouri Priorities

An overwhelming majority of voters think that there needs to be attention focused on improving economic conditions. Of voters sampled, 57% said the most important problem in Missouri was unemployment and jobs. Unemployment and jobs towered over the other three options of government spending (19%), education (13%) and health care (11%) combined. Clearly, any candidate looking to sharpen his or her campaign messaging for 2012 will have to provide voters with a promise of improving the economy. It will be interesting to see if any of the proposed ballot initiatives also try to tap into this angst as a reason to vote for or against a certain position.


Favorability - Governor Jay Nixon

With a recently named opponent – one he wasn’t expecting – Jay Nixon has begun gearing up his campaign for 2012. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of voters in the survey rated Jay Nixon favorably, while 41% rated him unfavorably. That gives Nixon a “net positive” rating of 18% - fairly strong in this purple-colored state. Voters in all gender and age brackets give Nixon a net positive rating. He gets a big boost from Democrats, but even Republicans rate him slightly more favorable than unfavorable. The only demographic where Nixon’s unfavorable outweigh favorable was among Independent voters.


Trust for Economic Issues

With the failure of the recent special session of the legislature in mind, a question was crafted to see who voters trusted to create jobs and handle the state’s economy. It asked voters to choose between the Democratic Governor and the Republican Legislature. Voters split almost evenly and fell well within the margin of error with 51% favoring the Democratic Governor and 49% favoring the Republican Legislature. While this equal split was seen across the age breakout, women tended to favor the Governor and men tended to favor the Legislature. Predictably, in the partisan demographics Democrats strongly supported the Governor, and Republicans strongly supported the Legislature.  Independents favored the Republican Legislature (58%) to the Democratic Governor (42%).



Actual Top Lines

What is the most important problem facing the State of Missouri right now, unemployment and jobs, government spending, education or health care?


Unemployment and Jobs - 57.1

Government Spending - 18.9

Education - 12.8

Health Care - 11.2


Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Governor Jay Nixon?

Favorable - 58.9

Unfavorable - 41.1


Who do you trust to be better at creating jobs and handling the state’s economy, the Republican Legislature or the Democratic Governor?

Republican Legislature - 49.4

Democratic Governor - 50.6


Poll was conducted December 13. 541 likely voters. +/- 4.2%



Jeanette in Senate 5?

Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford is said to be considering the Senate 5 race.  Sen. Robin Wright Jones is running for reelection, and Rep. Jamiliah Nasheed has all but announced for the seat too.


Oxford has been approached by House colleagues as well as social justice advocates, and has decided to give herself a month or so to discern whether it’s something she feels called to pursue.


The general rule of these matters is that the more folks who get in the more likely it is that more people get in.  One would think that a field of Wright Jones, Nasheed and Oxford would be tempting for a south-side conservative Democrat (in the Rep. Jake Hummel mold for example).



Largent Nailing Down Senate 31

Tipster: “Look for Rep. Scott Largent to announce an endorsement from Sens. David Pearce and Mike Parson this week… The powers that be are going all in to ensure that Largent has momentum and the resources to hopefully keep other candidates out.”




Sen. Jane Cunningham’s Facebook law gets some press in the NY TimesSee it Here.  (No quote from the senator though).



Lobbyists’ Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Burton, Liese, Foley added OneMain Financial Inc., Hershewe Law Firm, and deleted Montgomery City Growth Inc., ING North America Insurance Corporation, The Doe Run Resources Coporation, and Citifinancial Services Inc.

Ronald Gladney added Missouri Homecare Union.

Robert J. Guinness added Lake St. Louis Fire Protection District.

Derek S. Leffert added 109 Group.

Polsinelli Shughart deleted The Wind Coalition

Jared Paul Vessell added Infrazone Technology Inc, and NPursuit Technology.

Chris Roepe added Roepe LLC



$5K+ Contributions

Civic Progress Action Committee - $7,400 from Energizer Holdings Inc.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Gregory Boyce.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $15,000 from Smithfield Foods Inc.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Polsinelli Shughart PC.

Progress in Video Electronics-PAC – $5,105 from Lemon’s Coin Machines Inc.

Missourians for Koster - $15,000 from Andrew O’ Brien.

Citizens to Elect Kurt Schaefer - $5,001 from Citizens for Jay Wasson.

Citizens for Diehl - $25,000 from Rex and Jeanne Sinquefield.

Citizens to Elect Rocky Miller - $5,001 from Daryl and Nicklyn Foster.

Kander for Missouri - $5,001 from Zevan & Davidson Law Firm.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $25,000 from Ken McClain.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Larus Corporation.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Peabody Investments Corporation.




Happy birthday to Catalyst’s Greg Porter.