Monday, December 5, 2011

Court Starts Detente

I’ve received word that various supreme court justices are reaching out to legislators. One source counts at least three advances to try “to make nice… Fairly obvious to me that Thursday – or latest early Friday – they sat down and realized they have a problem. Smart to be self-aware. Wish would have happen sooner. But I almost think contacting this soon may backfire…”



Leg To Look at Revamping Redistricting Process

Meanwhile, last week I outlined three probable areas of attempted legislative action next session – non-partisan court plan, reorganization of circuit court system, and appropriations scrutiny.


A fourth is emerging.  Some in the legislature now want to deal with the court’s involvement in redistricting matters in the future.  I’ve heard from two legislators.  One was talking about a relatively weak proposal – toughing sunshine laws so future appellate commissions would have to abide by them.


The other wants a more muscular approach.  According to that legislator, since the appellate commission so bungled this map, the case will be made that the general assembly itself should draw lines in the future if the commissions fail.


That would obviously be terrible for the minority party.  However Dems may be so demoralized by the map that they figure it couldn’t be worse.  (It could, folks.  It could.)



Map Aftershocks

Through House Republican Eyes

The map is okay.  It is a huge hassle, requiring a lot of “work outs” between conflicted members.  Because their many incumbents have radical changes in territory, they’ll have to raise more money to introduce themselves to a lot of voters.  But that’s never been a back-breaker for the GOP.  It is putting their team work ethos to the test, but they’re confident when they come out the other side, they’ll still have control.


Through House Dem Eyes

Even if Democratic put together a series of strong cycles, this map has them maxing out as a permanent minority around 74-75 seats.  Meanwhile they’re a ton of anger at the courts.  They feel like after being an ally of the judiciary for years, they’ve been thrown under the bus.  When House Dems felt last session like Governor Jay Nixon was taking them for granted, they were shy about tossing a punch in his direction.  The courts could get the same treatment this session.



Getting more attention… the unconstitutional split of Johnson County.  AP’s David Lieb does a nice job.  Read it Here.   Of interest in that article: Sen. David Pearce running hard for re-election in Senate 31.  Pull quote: “‘Ninety-five percent of my district is new,’ Pearce said…”



Work Outs, Rumors Etc

One disclaimer: when I write people are moving, for those who are entering their final term, they may or may not actually move.  The sanction is apparently being barred from running again, so those at the end of their political career may “plan” to move, but ultimately not move.  This applies to both Republicans and Democrats.


Potential Work Out in House 2

Reps. Casey Guernsey (from the former 3rd) and Glen Klippenstein (from the former 5th) are determining who will run for House and who will have the other’s support to run in 2014 for Brad Lager’s Senate 14 district.


McClanahan Again?

In House 4, Rep. Craig Redmon might face former Rep. Rebecca McClanahan.  The new district has some of McClanahan’s old 2nd district base.  The Republican voting index is 55.6%. That’s not easy for McClanahan, but it’s actually a few points little better than her previous district.


Work Out with Anders and McDonald

Rep. Ira Anders will stay in the new House 21 and Rep. Tom McDonald will move to the new House 28 where the Raytown establishment is prepared to welcome him with a full slate of endorsements.


Strong Bets

In the new 25th (akin to Rep. Jason Kander’s old 44th) Jeremy Lafaver is the favorite, though he may have a primary from recent law school grad Chris Miller.  And in House 27, Bonnaye Mims is out front.  She’s vice-chair of the Jackson County Democratic Committee.


Holsman-McManus Work Out

Rep. Kevin McManus will stay in the new House 36 and Rep. Jason Holsman moves to the new House 37.


House 43 Question Mark

No clear resolution yet in the new House 43 which has Reps. John Cauthorn and Jay Houghton paired together.  The district is more favorable to Cauthorn if it comes to a throw-down.


Senate Runs Open House Seats in Mid-MO

Democratic Rep. Mary Still is exploring a possible run for Senate 19 against Sen. Kurt Schaefer. She was in Branson, Springfield and KC last Thursday, Friday and Saturday meeting with people.  Senate 19 is a 52.6% Democratic voting index now.  That’ll open up House 45 which is more Democratic than Still’s old House 25.


And Republican Rep. Jeanie Riddle is expected to run for Senate 7.  That opens her House 49 which is now a safe Republican seat.


Caleb and Chris Work Out?

Republican Rep. Caleb Jones and Democratic Rep. Chris Kelly were placed in the same House 50.  The district definitely favors the Republican, but word is that the two have a strong relationship and are exploring a possible work out.


Hoskins to Move?

Rep. Denny Hoskin’s House 121 district morphed like so many into something unrecognizable.  He’s now in House 51 and it is solidly Democratic.  Perhaps Hoskins will move a stone’s throw down the road into House 54 where there’s no incumbent and the district tilts Republican?


Brown in House 57

It sounds like Rep. Wanda Brown will be the Republican candidate in the new House 57 as Rep. Scott Largent sets his sights for Senate 31.


Zerr Picks Up GOP Ground

Rep. Anne Zerr in St. Charles was in a 50-50 toss-up district, but the new numbers of her new House 65 leans Republican.


No Easy Way Out in House 67

In the new House 67, Reps. Sylvester Taylor and Steve Webb are land-locked.  One Dem worries it has the potential to be a real “fistfight” for survival.  There’s more geography from Webb’s old district, but Taylor’s population base of Blackjack is in the southern part of the new district.


Carter – May – Nasheed Work Out

Rep. Chris Carter will stay in the new House 76; Rep. Karla May will move to the new House 77; and Rep. Jamiliah Nasheed is expected to seek to unseat Sen. Robin Wright Jones in Senate 5.


Tishaura for Treasurer

Rep. Tishaura Jones is exploring a bid for St. Louis city treasurer.  One source says it’s partially to adjust her life so that she’s no away from her son during session.  Martin Casas will run for her seat.


Pace May Move

Reps. Clem Smith and Sharon Pace were both placed in House 85.  The district is mostly Smith’s old House 71.  One source thinks Pace may move and primary Rep. Churie Spreng (new House 74).  I’ll have to look up demographic information on that primary as race (Spreng is white; Pace is black) will affect the outcome.


No Clarity on House 87 Yet

Reps. Susan Carlson and Stacy Newman are both in the news House 87.  It’s unclear if either could be convinced to move.  But if one is willing to jump into St. Louis city, there’s a plum district (House 84) which represents the Central West End and Forest Park.


Schupp Path Clear

Newly elected Tracy McCreery will move out Rep. Jill Schupp’s new House 88 and into House 71 where she will run.  Schupp meanwhile could be a potent challenger to Sen. John Lamping in Senate 24 in 2014.


Montecello Sifton Work Out

Rep. Genise Montecello will stay in the new 92nd and Rep. Scott Sifton will move to the new House 93.  Both are Democratic districts.


Fuhr Retiring?

In House 97 where Reps. Gary Fuhr and John McCaherty were paired, it’s said that Fuhr will cede the seat to McCaherty.  Says one source, “(Fuhr) will probably stay involved in some capacity.  Unlike some he doesn’t need the job, did it just to serve.”


House 100 Puzzle Resolved

Reps. Sue Allen, Don Gosen and Andrew Koenig were all put into this new district.  Gosen is said to moving to the new House 101.  And although the district is about 50% Koenig’s old district and 5% Allen’s, Koenig has two nearby districts while Allen in land-locked to the north.  So word is that Koenig will be a team player and move.


Bahr - Funderburk Work Out

Rep. Kurt Bahr will run in the new House 102 and Rep. Doug Funderburk will run in the new House 103. Both are strong Republican districts.


Daves “Close” to Work Out

Reps. Dave Hinson and Dave Schatz are said to be close to working out their residency conflict in House 119.  Perhaps one will move into adjacent House 120 or 61?


Burley – Long Work Out Coming

Reps. Eric Burlison and Thomas Long have been paired in House 133, a Springfield district.  Although there isn’t an agreement yet, it’s said that the two have committed to not run against each other and are trying to figure who will move.  Likely one jumps over to open House 134.



Last week I reported that Democratic Rep. Ben Harris and Republican Rep. Paul Fitzwater were paired into a single district.  WRONG.  Fitz is actually in House 144, and it’s a district which suits him.  It takes him from a Democratic-leaning district to a Republican-leaning district.


Hodges-Holly War Coming

In House 149 it’ll be incumbent Democratic Rep. Steve Hodges against Republican Holly Rehder.  The voting index of the new district is a toss-up 50.2%, though Dems think it’s a match-up Hodges should win.


The Bills Work It Out

Rep. Bill Lant will run in House 159 and Rep. Bill Rieboldt will run in House 160.


Flanigan – Davis Work Out

Rep. Tom Flanigan will run in the new House 163 and Rep. Charlie Davis is moving to the new House 162.



Quip of the Week

Lobbyist: “The realtors should be happy with all the legislators moving from one district to another.  Never thought judges would be able to help the state's economy.”



Talboy for PSC

The Association of Utility workers (about 14,000 strong) has sent a letter to the governor’s office endorsing Minority Leader Mike Talboy for the Public Service Commission.  No word on where Nixon is on that appointment.



Two Million Reasons Not to Run for Gov

Word began circulating late last week that Ed Martin was pulling back the reins on a possible gubernatorial campaign.  Earlier he had openly flirted with the idea on Mark Reardon’s KMOX radio show.  According to one observer, the change came after Dave Spence sent his down-payment on the campaign to the Missouri Ethics Commission.  This source says that Martin “was ready to jump and had press statements prepared” but the $2 million check was cause for pause.



Two Reasons to Volunteer

Cynthia Davis asking for volunteers to walk in a parade this weekend, writes, “we would love to have you join us as we celebrate Jesus being the reason for the season and Cynthia Davis for Lt. Governor.”



K12 in NYTimes

NYTime’s Gail Collins wrote about virtual schools in the her column over the weekend.  Read it Here.


The Meat: “K12 Inc. is a big private online education business. It was founded by a former Goldman Sachs banker and by William Bennett, the Republican writer and talk-show host, with an infusion of cash from the former disgraced junk-bond king Mike Milken. Its teachers generally work from their homes, communicating with their students by e-mail or phone. (At one point in Arizona, essays of students attending an online academy run by K12 were outsourced to India for correction. K12 says the program was a pilot and was discontinued.)


“The company’s opponents in Tennessee are particularly bitter about the fact that when K12 came in, the state’s own online educational program went out. ‘It won numerous awards, the children were successful, and last session they made a decision to junk it, because K12 Inc. made a decision to lobby the Legislature to pass the Virtual School Act,’ said (Tennessee state senator Andy) Berke.”


K12 in MO

Registered K12 lobbyists: Flotron & McIntosh’s Franc Flotron, Richard McIntosh, Doyle Childers, and David McCracken.



eMailbag: Blunt for Veep

“Here is my early prediction (and it will drive Ds in Missouri nuts): Mitt Romney nominated, picks Roy Blunt as running mate. Border-state Blunt knows how to work the crazies while keeping the establishment Republicans in the tent.”



Lobbyist Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Jessica Land added The Giddens Group.

Nancy Giddens, Shannon Cooper and Jessica Land added American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists, Arnold and Associates

Joel Denney added Missouri National Guard Association.

Katharine Finley, Madeline Harned, David Hollander, Sydney Miller, Alexandra Miller, Patricia Poe, Gavin Pringle, and Abigail Thomas added Associated Students of the University of Missouri.

W T Dawson deleted ACGM.



$5K+ Contributions

Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund - $5,840 from Laborers’ Supplemental Dues Fund.