Monday, July 16, 2012

Kinder on the Attack

On the radio today, Peter Kinder has ads attacking Sen. Brad Lager’s personal gain from Obamacare because he works for the Cerner Corporation.  This is a follow-on to last week when conservative talk radio hosts took Lager to task for the relationship.


The federal healthcare law is a hot button issue for Republicans and Kinder is attempting to score big with it.



Trotter: Clay Dissed His Wife, Party, Constituents

Russ Carnahan’s camp forwarded old-school PR flack Gentry Trotter’s slam piece on Lacy Clay which recalls Clay’s divorce.


Pull Quote:  “If you publicly disrespect your wife, then you are capable of disrespecting your constituents, and Mr. Clay has in so many dishonorable ways screwed over his Democratic Party, and his no-shows over the years on critical votes are well-documented. Does character have anything to do with the essence of political leadership, you bet, your behind it does.”


Read it here.  It only gets nastier from here….



July Quarters

Here we go…  Everything is due by the close of business today, so feel free to follow me (@missouriscout on Twitter) as I may tweet some bits today.  Otherwise there’ll be a rundown of the important numbers here tomorrow.  Here’s what is in or is “whispered” right now.


US Senate

PoliticMO reports that John Brunner burned through $2.7 million during the last three months, almost entirely his own cash.  Congressman Todd Akin raised $280K and has $1.4 million on-hand.  Read it here.


Meanwhile the whisper number for Sarah Steelman is $242K raised and $560K on-hand.


And…if you add in Sarah Steelman’s SuperPAC, that puts her total cash number closer to $1 million. According to its FEC report, the “Now or Never PAC” only raised $75,500 during the last three months.  That came from a $50K contribution from Maxine Steelman, $25K from Missouri Leadership Committee (treasurer is Tom Burcham, closeclose ally of Speaker Steve Tilley), and $500 from the law firm of Graves, Bartle, Marcus & Garrett.  Cash on-hand: $441,150.



Steelman’s camp says they’re feeling good that Brunner, despite spending nearly $5 million to date, has yet to seal the deal.  Steelman camp talk – “seven men and one female on the ballot…”, “only rural candidate” – implies that if Brunner can’t open a commanding lead, the election day landscape is naturally tilted in her favor.



State Senate

Senate 3 (Engler termed)

In Republican primary, Terry Varner raised $5,691; spent $4,329; has $1,161 on-hand.  Gary Romine raised $48,190; spent $28,770; has $129,427 on-hand.  MOScout forecast has Romine winning this primary (confidence level: high).  This reinforces that expectation.


In Senate 13

Gina Walsh raised $38,216; spent $70,539; and has $94,539 on-hand.  No report yet from her Democratic primary competitor Redditt Hudson.


Senate 27

Rep. Wayne Wallingford raised $109,250; spent $24,887; and has $143,820 on-hand.  No report yet from his Republican primary competitor Rep. Ellen Brandom.


Senate 31

Ed Emery raised $150,039; spent $66,595; and has $83,655 on-hand. Not much there except for $50K from David Humphreys, $50K from Ethelmae Humphreys, and $40K from Rex’s MO Club for Growth.  No report yet from his Republican primary competitor Rep. Scott Largent.


Senate 33

Mike Cunningham raised $159,550; spent $20,003; and has $141,429 on-hand.  That $159K includes a $100K loan to himself, as well as $25K from Sen. Jay Wasson’s committee.  Beyond that, not much else there.


Rep. Don Wells raised $6,985; spent $14,948; and has $71,762 on-hand.


No report yet from Rep. Ward Franz.



State House

In House 6 GOP primary, Ron Gillett raised $23,090; spent $21,630; and has $2,459 on-hand.  Tim Remole raised $10,627; spent $6,860; and has $3,766 on-hand.


In House 15 Dem primary, Jon Carpenter raised $5,075; spent $2,347; has $12,575 on-hand.  Carol Suter raised $2,615; spent $1,167; and has $9,802 on-hand.


In House 58 GOP primary, there is likely a change of forecast coming.  Former state representative Steve Henderson did a nothing quarter, raising and spending $668.   Former school teacher David Wood, had the best quarter: $4,015 raised, $8,617 spent; and $5,284 on-hand.  And James Bryant, a bait-and-tackle shop owner, raised $3,656, spent $3,487, and has $619 on-hand.


In House 122 GOP primary, Steve Lynch raised $14,815; spent $9,215; and has $5,843 on-hand.

Waynesville City Council member Twyla Cordry raised $3,000; spent $4,847; and has $580 on-hand. Former Waynesville mayor Cliff Hammock raised $7,075; spent $7,096; and has $5 on-hand.


In House 124 GOP primary, Rocky Miller raised $14,975; spent $20,178; and has $18,839 on-hand.  Carolyn Loraine raised $8,775; spent $656; and has $15,493 on-hand.


In House 146 GOP primary, incumbent Donna Lichtenegger raised $15,985; spent $7,059; and has $15,299 on-hand.  Her opponent Gerald Adams raised $12,022; spent $6,050; and has $5,971 on-hand.




In Senate 5, Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford benefits from a third-party expenditure from Missourians Against Higher Utility Rates.  The mailer, hitting houses in Senate 5, has a cover page that reads: “With Ameren draining our hard-earned paychecks…”



Speaker-elect Tim Jones raised $109K, and has $404K on-hand.



Whisper number for Rep. Jason Kander is $225K raised this quarter…



$5K+ Contributions

Pulaski County Republican Central Committee - $5,032 from Pulaski County Republican Central Committee.

Supporters of Health Research and Treatments - $16,750 from Friends of Tilley.

Missourians for Responsible Lending - $14,886 from Missouri Jobs with Justice.

Give Missourians a Raise - $15,646 from Missouri Jobs with Justice.

Freedom PAC - $54,409 from Herzog Contracting Corp.

McGhee for Senate - $10,000 from Missouri Club for Growth.

Missourians for Conservatives Values PAC - $100,000 from Better Government for Missouri.




Happy birthdays to Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford (58), and St. Louis On the Air’s Don Marsh (74)



MOScout News

MOScout forecasts for statewide, state senate and state house races will be updated this week.  Where a forecast is changed and/or where confidence levels have changed, it will be noted in the Daily Updates and changed on the “cheat sheet” found in the Special Report section.