Tuesday, July 17, 2012

July Numbers

The July fundraising numbers ($ raised in quarter, $ spent in quarter, $ cash on-hand) for everyone in a primary can be found in the ever-evolving “Cheat Sheet” excel spreadsheet in Special Reports.  See it here.


In the forecast section of the spreadsheet, you’ll find some yellow highlights.  This is where my forecast is “under review.”  I’ll be making changes (or not) on them for tomorrow.


Below are some observations and highlights.  I apologize for the scattershot nature of the report; it’s hard to digest so much at once.  There’ll probably be follow-on tomorrow as well.



As a reminder, anything that can be downloaded may be shared with your clients, colleague etc.  But again, please do not share access to the website itself.  This is important to me.  If your organization needs an additional password, let me know.





Nixon had another monster quarter.  No surprise.  Spence is augmenting his budget with his own cash.  No surprise.


Lieutenant Governor

Kinder had a better quarter than I expected, raising $252K.  He was still outstripped by Lager who raised $968K.  But Lager’s had to go first and heavier on television as he plays catch-up. As a result he’s spent more, and the two finished the quarter in the same cash on-hand ballpark.  Kinder had $1.1 million on-hand; Lager had $1.3 million.


On the Democratic side, things shook out in the order expected: Montee ($93K raised; $133K on-hand; Baker ($47K raised, $76K; Kratky ($30K raised, $69K on-hand); Lampe ($29K raised, $37K on-hand).


Secretary of State

Powered by the $150K check from Rex Sinquefield, Schoeller won this quarter, raising $280K ($301K on-hand); Rupp ($88K raised, $176K on-hand) and Stouffer ($76K raised, $237K on-hand) trailed.


The cash advantage puts the ball in Schoeller’s court.  But it’s not an overwhelming amount that insures state-wide victory. He has to make sure he deploys it correctly and efficiently.  Similarly, Rupp and Stouffer have to strategize how they can use their limited resources to turn out their bases and work their way to a 40% vote, and hope for a favorable split.



Senate Races

Senate 1 – Sifton stomped Schoemehl


Senate 3 – This one is done. Romine blows Varner out of water.


Senate 5 – No strong quarters.  Wright Jones beats expectations by raising $14K.  That shows how low the expectations had fallen.  Nasheed’s $23K raised hobbled by ballot uncertainty.  Will the money show up now?


Senate 7 – Holsman 2:1 cash on-hand advantage down the stretch.


Senate 13 – Walsh 12:1 cash on-hand advantage.


Senate 17 – Silvey looking safe; his Dem opponent raised $5K.


Senate 19 – Schaefer raised $104K, has $460K on-hand; Still raised $50K, has $142K on-hand.


Senate 21 – Pearce has nice cash lead, but his allies fear rumors of more big checks to McGhee down the stretch.  They’re not letting up.


Senate 27 – Brandom has $100K cash on-hand lead.  Still a close race.


Senate 29 – Sater burying opponents.
Senate 31 – Largent behind on money, killing the ground game.  Still favorite here.


Senate 33 – Franz a bit ahead on money and doing well on organization.



The New Game in Town

Earlier this week, I listed a $100,000 check in the “$5K+ Contributions.”  It was from Better Government for Missouri, a brand new non-profit.  In fact Better Government filed its paperwork with the secretary of state office on the same day as the check.  It’s as if the non-profit was created just as a conduit for the donors…


The check went to Missourians for Conservative Values PAC.  While, I can attempt to follow the money from Conservative Values PAC, I’ll never know where it came from.  The creation of non-profits to hide the source of political contributions is “the new game in town.”


It’s been used again and again by Missourians for Responsible Government, a non-profit which has funneled lots of dough into the payday loan ballot battle.


When contribution limits were removed, part of the promise was transparency.  With that promise crumbling, perhaps it’s time to revisit the issue.



Stream Behind Closed Doors

Getting into the psyche of incoming House Budget Chair Rick Stream, here’s one observer’s take: “I’d say he can get pretty passionate behind closed doors. I think he will surprise people. The biggest knock I’ve heard from others about him is that they think he will be easily pushed around. I don't think that will be the case.”



Noranda Plays in Ameren’s Backyard

In Senate 5, Noranda sent $5K to Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford.  It’s the home district to Ameren, leading, Damon Jones, the son of incumbent Sen. Robin Wright Jones to Facebook some snark: “Noranda, looking for friends with crowell leaving. A would be state sen. will not support 1 of the metro's largest employers & sponsors?”



Kinder Ad

LG Peter Kinder today starts a television version of yesterday’s radio ad, attacking Brad Lager’s relationship to Cerner and Cerner’s relationship to Obamcare.  It looks like this is the Kinder line of attack for the foreseeable future.



Where’s Roy?

Roy Temple – advisor to Crystal Williams in Senate 7 and Judy Baker in the LG race – doesn’t show up on either report.  I was curious what his going rate was.  Maybe just pro bono advise?



Buying the Shield

Former Post-Dispatch reporter Jake Wagman’s nascent Shield Political Research is an opposition research firm.  This quarter Wagman found at least two clients according to MEC reports.  Mayor Francis Slay paid Shield $2,500.  And Rep. Jamilah Nasheed, running in Senate 5, paid Shield $1,500.



Roorda Rises?

Former state representative Jeff Roorda raised $21K, and has $52K on-hand.  Without a primary and no serious opposition in November, one wonders if he will start spreading his money around and make a move for a leadership position in November.  In a term-limited environment, legislators with experience are a valued commodity.  Plus his Jeff County roots would help Dems as they attempt to broaden their appeal beyond the urban areas.



Clay on Carnahan

From Lacy Clay’s Facebook Page

“I want to take back the House, and Democrats need to win back 25 seats. A Democrat with a chance to win in one district who runs against a sitting Democrat in another district isn't helping the Democrats win back the House.  Russ Carnahan's selfish actions are helping to ensure Republicans keep control of the House. Russ Carnahan misled national Democratic Party leaders, and so they put him on a special list. Russ got an enormous amount of financial help from people who thought he would use it to run against a Republican. But Russ misled everyone. Russ is only interested in Russ. Click this link to my web site for more information, and for more Differences between us.”




US Senate: Is Congressman Todd Akin the sleeper in the race?  His people are hard-core and he’s sitting on $1.5 million with three weeks left…



Jonesy Tourney: Already has 42 foursomes (168 golfers) signed up (don’t worry golfers, they’ll have 27 holes to work with) making it perhaps the largest legislative tourney in state.  Monday, Country Club at  Legends in Eureka.  Breakfasts served at 8am.



SOS: “Stouffer may surprise people today when they find out he didn't really have to pay

for all those billboards and Schoeller has burned through a lot of cash. It is way closer than anyone would have ever thought.”



Gina Walsh added a slew of education endorsements: Missouri National Education Association (MNEA), Missouri State Teachers Association (MSTA), and School Administrators (MSAPAC).



LG: “Lager may have peaked a month ago.” Cerner hit hurts.
See Me: Koster’s office quadrupled its advertising budget in a year?  See it here




Lobbyists Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Gamble & Schlemeier deleted Stowers Institute for Medical Research.



Registration Exegesis

It’s said that there’s no change in relationship here, but that the Gamble & Schlemeier contract is just moving to a different entity.



$5K+ Contributions

Fitzpatrick for House - $12,000 from Scott Fitzpatrick.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Citizens for Diehl.

Progress KC Committee - $30,000 from Heavy Constructors Industry.

Progress KC Committee - $10,000 from J.E. Dunn Construction.

Citizens for Ed Emery - $50,000 from Sarah Atkins.

Schoemehl for State Senate - $5,500 from Thomas P. and Ruby H. O'Driskoll Revocable Living Trust.

Missourians for Responsible Lending - $5,923 from Communities Creating Opportunity.

Give Missourians a Raise - $5,923 from Communities Creating Opportunity.

Clint Zweifel for Missouri - $20,000 from Simmons Browder Gianaris Angelides & Barnerd LLC.

Kander for Missouri - $20,000 from Simmons Browder Gianaris Angelides & Barnerd LLC.

Montee for Missouri - $20,000 from Simmons Browder Gianaris Angelides & Barnerd LLC.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $6,000 from UGas Inc.

Missourians for Health and Education - $9,000 from American Cancer Society, Cancer Action Network.

MO House Democratic Campaign Committee - $15,000 from Committee to Elect Jake Hummel.




Happy birthdays to Richard Callow and David Klarich.