Monday, July 18, 2011

Fundraising Rundown

Senate

This quarter revealed very clearly that Sarah Steelman’s campaign is not senatorial material.  Her quarter which hasn’t posted as of this morning (Senate reports are less immediate than the Congressional reports), shows only $200,000 raised.  That’s $1,200,000 less than Sen. Claire McCaskill raised. 

But the deeper problem for Steelman was that she spent more than she brought in.  In other words she went backwards during the last three months.  Compounding her embarrassing quarter was Steelman’s explanation that her campaign is “doing things differently.”  That’s sent howls through the political twitterverse.

Her malaise led one Republican to suggest to me that she may ultimately cast her ambitions lower into the state treasurer or secretary of state races.

Meanwhile business man John Brunner is said to be in seclusion with his briefing books.  The average quarter of Todd Akin (and failing Steelman quarter) give Team Brunner some breathing room before they roll-out.  He’s making sure he has educated himself on the federal issues (both domestic and foreign) before he starts making the rounds.

And

One rumor is that Brunner is pursing Andy Blunt, hoping to lasso the undefeated campaign manager to head his senate campaign.

Governor

Jay Nixon outraised Peter Kinder.  Both camps spinned the results.  The bottom-line: Kinder will have enough money to get his message out when the campaign hits full tilt next summer.

But… if Nixon can continue to outpace Kinder, his team could have the ability to start advertisements early and attempt to define Kinder and race early.  That could be important.

My assumption is that the Republicans who have sustained Nixon’s high approvals eventually come home to Kinder.  But it’s possible that with additional resources Nixon may be able to define Kinder in a way which staunches some of that eventual giveback.

Lieutenant Governor

Speaker Steve Tilley has established himself with the cleanest path of any statewide non-incumbent.  He’s successfully frozen out any other Republicans, and the Democrats whose names are mentioned have yet to muster credible money or endorsements.  For example, former state senator Wes Shoemeyer appears to be taking himself off the radar with a nada quarter ($0 raised, $14k on the bank).

Attorney General

AG Chris Koster sent a fresh $406k into the bank this quarter bringing his total to a cool million.  Like Tilley that number stands tall to ward away the would-be challengers.  Additionally I haven’t heard any more talk of a primary challenge which ran hot his healthcare betrayal of the base.

Secretary of State

Robin Carnahan did little more than Shoemyer (above).  Her fundraising total was $76.15.  You may wonder who sends in a check for $76.15.  No one.  It was the interest earned on her account balance, which stands at $210,781.

That bank account was touted by supporters making the point that on the Republican side, we’re still waiting for folks to start their engines.

Treasurer

Clint Zweifel raised $213,155, and now has $534,188 on-hand.  That’s not in the monster Koster or Tilley territory.  But Zweifel digs it out every quarter.  And compared to where he’s started four years ago, he’s light years ahead in terms of both relationships and money.  (In July 2007 he had $34k in the bank.)

Meanwhile the one rumored potential Republican opponent, Sen. Brad Lager didn’t show any activity: $0 raised, $51,685 on-hand.

2nd Congressional

Ed Martin got slapped down.  His quarter was simply weak.  Martin’s press release focuses on the number of contributors, and offers an explanation that between his two campaign committees (the prior senate campaign and the current congressional campaign)  he exceeded $110,00.  Still the bottom line is that he went from $158k on-hand to $245k on-hand.  That’s a net $87k quarter, which compares very unfavorably to Ann Wagner’s $520k quarter.  

And Jeff Roe’s Axiom dutifully sent out an analysis showing that Wagner had more individual donors a demonstration of spinning too hard, as it doesn’t account for the low-dollar un-itemized contributions.

Other Quarters of Note

Leadership and Possible Leadership Candidates

Leader Tim Jones raised $85,960 and has $168,399 on-hand.

Rep. John Diehl raised $37,420 and has $121,566 on-hand.

Assistant Floor Leader Jeanie Riddle raised $19,880 and has $22,571 on-hand.

Caucus Secretary Sue Allen raised $9,915 and has $14,936 on-hand.

Speaker Pro Tem Shane Schoeller raised $5,575 and has $5,602 on-hand with $9,023 in debt.

Majority Whip Jason Smith raised $3,325 and has $18,457 on-hand.

Rep. Mike Leara raised $2,775 and has $6,129 on-hand.

Caucus Chair Shelley Keeney raised $325 and has $4,518 on-hand.

Minority Leader Mike Talboy raised $16,276 and has $41,233 on-hand.

Minority Whip Mike Colona raised $4,075 and has $11,779 on-hand.

Rep. Jake Hummel raised $1,325 and has $15,869 on-hand.

Policy Chair Jill Schupp raised $974 and has $26,330 on-hand.

Assistant Leader Tishaura Jones raised $825 and has $9,665 on-hand.

Caucus Secretary Sara Lampe raised $800 and has $5,697 on-hand.

Caucus Vice-Chair Chris Carter raised $650 and has $2,999 on-hand.

Reps for Senate

Senate 1: Schoemehl Starts Slow

Former Rep. Sue Schoemehl raised $7,495 and has $19,186 on-hand for her Senate 1 race.

Senate 13: Walsh Waits for Opponent

Former Rep. Gina Walsh raised $1,150 and has $48,502 on-hand.

Senate 17: Silvey Looks Strong

Rep. Ryan Silvey raised $11,175 and has $63,482 on-hand for his Senate 17 race.  No committee or action from his once rumored Democratic opponent Bill Skaggs.

Senate 21: No Great Shakes in Stouffer’s District

Rep. Mike McGhee raised $2,625 and has $2,202 on-hand.

Senate 25: Swinger Leads in a Swing District

Rep. Terry Swinger raised $5,500 and has $73,238 on-hand.

Rep. Billy Pat Wright raised $13,710 and has $14,480 on-hand.

Senate 27: Don’t Bet Against Brandom

Rep. Ellen Brandom raised $90,960 and has $153,158 on-hand for her Senate 27 race.

Senate 33: Franz Early Favorite

Rep. Ward Franz raised $13,955 and has $43,642 on-hand.

Rep. Darrell Pollock raised $4,525 and has $4,203 on-hand.

Rep. Don Wells raised $7,720 and has $26,477 on-hand.

Still No Heavies from Freshmen

Rep. Marsha Haefner raised $500 and has $865 on-hand.

Rep. Lincoln Hough raised $4,875 and has $11,271 on-hand.

Wright Jones Files Current Quarter, Mum on Past

Sen. Robin Wright Jones filed her July quarter on time, releasing a press statement: “Senator Robin Wright-Jones, D-St. Louis, today released her second quarter campaign finance report in compliance with rules established by the Missouri Ethics Commission... Sen. Wright-Jones says she created a new campaign committee and hired a new treasurer due to problems that arose when her previous treasurer became ill and was unable to complete the necessary forms in a correct and timely manner.  Sen. Wright-Jones says she has worked diligently during the past few weeks to resolve those issues and to file reports that accurately reflect her donations and

expenditures.”

In actuality, according to the Missouri Ethics Commission, she amended her committee to change its name and treasurer.  And despite this attempt to break from the past, and filing her current quarter on time, the real questions of her missing October quarter and unaccounted for thousands of dollars remain the heart of her problems.

The expenditures in this quarter – two payments to WGNU which filed a lawsuit against her, and $2,400 to Austin Law Firm, a firm which “specializes in representing creditors” – only heighten the appearance of serious fiscal troubles.  The items are listed as payments for “constituent outreach” and “constituent services” respectively.

Mayer for Judge

It has been whispered in the Capitol that Sen. Rob Mayer is going a possible Republican candidate for attorney general.  And that may be consultant David Barklage’s dream rematch.  But surveying the terrain, Mayer must see much more fertile ground to sown back home in Southeast Missouri.

The 35th  judicial circuit is made up of Stoddard and Dunklin Counties.  Former State Senator and sitting Circuit Judge Stephen Sharp turns 67 on July 25.  His term expires in December 2012.  Although he could run again and serve until he’s 70, he’ll be 68 before the primary election.  That gives primary and general election voters a reason to vote against a guy who was first appointed judge by Governor John Ashcroft back in 1990: they don’t want the governor appointing their circuit judge for the next two years. 

That very same argument was successful in upending another politico turned judge - former House Majority Leader Joe Holt - who served as an Associate Circuit Judge in Callaway County from 1998 through 2006 before being defeated in 2006. 

Mayer is from Stoddard County.  He served two terms in the House of Representatives (2000, 2002) and is termed out in the Senate next year, having been elected in 2004 and re-elected in 2008.  Dunklin County is in Mayer’s senate district and he’s performed very well there.

Although Dunklin and Stoddard Counties are roughly the same size in terms of population, Stoddard consistently has higher turnout – usually 1,500 to 1,800 votes even in the down ticket races. 

More importantly, Mayer ran for state senate against Sharp’s wife – Patt – in 2004 and performed very well.  Sharp garnered 56% of the vote in Dunklin County, beating Mayer by almost 1,400 votes; however, Mayer rolled in Stoddard County, pulling in more than 70% of the 13,000 votes cast – a 5,300 vote margin from Stoddard County. 

By 2008, Mayer had firmly solidified his position as state senator from the 25th.  He drew a token opponent, won Dunklin County by 1,500 votes and carried Stoddard County by almost 6,700 votes – more than a 3-1 margin. 

Fast forward four years later, Mayer is now riding high as President Pro Tem of the Senate and he did a good job helping people after the 2009 ice storm.  Those factors only will enhance his name ID and likeability in the Bootheel, an area of the state known for its love of government pork.  Furthermore Mayer’s got $42,500 cash on hand in his campaign account and as President Pro Tem he’s capable of raising a lot more.  

Now what’s left of the Dunklin County political machine that delivered the few hundred votes AG Chris Koster needed to eek out the 2008 AG primary won’t like having a Republican Judge Mayer.  However the judgeship is Mayer’s for the taking.  And Mayer’s prospects are much brighter in the 35th circuit than they would be if he runs against the charismatic Koster like his once-removed President Pro Tem predecessor Mike Gibbons did. 

Lobbyist Principal Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

Jennifer Durham added MO Rental Dealers Association; and deleted Telecommunications Association of Missouri.

$5k+ Contributions

Missouri Health Care Association PAC - $85,000 from Missouri Health Care Association.

Friends of Todd Richardson - $10,000 from RightCHOICE Managed Care Inc.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $10,000 from Burns & McDonnell.