Monday, July 23, 2012

Brunner Bubble Punctured?

Sarah Steelman supporters are pushing the optimism button.  They’re hinting that a recent poll has John Brunner’s numbers on the decline, and going so far to suggest that as the race heads into the final two weeks, they’re real competition may be Congressman Todd Akin.

Their theory is that Brunner’s earlier strong numbers were built entirely on his multi-million dollar television buys, and that the underlying support was weak.  Now with the first negative ads focusing on Brunner – from Steelman and from Democrats – that support is peeling off quickly.

Warily they eye Akin who has $1 million in the bank, a rock-solid conservative image and has stayed out of the way of attacks.

Logan: Lager Lies

Peter Kinder’s campaign manager Logan Thompson filed an Ethic complaint against the Brad Lager campaign.  Read it here.

In it Kinder’s team alleged that despite their repeated and empathic denials, the Lager campaign was behind anonymous websites and twitter account attacks.  In fact they say they have the proof in the credit card payment for the site from Lager staffer Jefferson Thomas.

Pull Quote: “Brad Lager intentionally lied and deceived the public about his involvement in the Kinder Report websites and the involvement of his staff. Lager violated campaign law by permitting his paid staff, and anyone else working in conjunction with his campaign, to put false disclaimers on the Kinder Report. Lager then attempted to evade the Missouri Ethics Commission by simply removing the illegal disclaimer. Lager’s whole intent was to deceive the public into believing that he and his staff were not behind the websites. This is evidenced by Lager and his staff’s statements in the Post Dispatch article and repeated efforts to promote the website without a disclaimer.”

Memo: Largent Leads

According to a July 16-17 Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research poll, Largent leads Senate 31 right now.

Largent 31%, Ed Emery 23%, Dave Morris 5%, and 41% undecided.

The slight sample (300 likely Republican primary voters) gives an outsized margin of error ( +/-5.7%).

Memo Conclusion

“Scott Largent is well positioned to win. He currently has an 8 point lead over his competitors. Largent leads among key demographics including voters across the ideological spectrum as well among seniors. Henry and Bates counties are a strong base of support for Largent, while Cass County is wide open. While there are still a large number of undecided voters, Scott Largent’s current name ID and standing on the ballot put him in a position to win should he have the necessary resources in the closing weeks of the campaign.”

Brutal

I would excerpt something here, but it may unexcerptable.

Rep. Sara Lampe issued a statement last week hitting Mizzou’s Coach Gary Pinkel for his non-condemnation of Joe Paterno.  Then she went on sport talk radio.  Quickly into the interview it becomes obvious that Lampe was in way over her head.  It gets brutal as the interviewer Kevin Slaten lays into her for grandstanding on the issue.

It goes on and on.  And it is painnnnnnful.  Listen to it here.

Caleb’s Golf Smash

Last when Rep. Caleb Jones’ golf tournament was a smash success.  The only event this year that will rival the size will be today’s golf event for his cousin, Speaker-elect Tim Jones.

There were 44 teams (132 people) and the rumored haul was $200K-ish.  If that’s in the right ballpark, then probably the only House members that will raise more this year will be Speaker Jones and Floor Leader John Diehl.  Electeds in attendance were Speaker Steve Tilley, Reps. Todd Richardson, Mike Cierpiot, and even Dem Reps. Stephen Webber, and exiting Mike Talboy.

Campaign Committee Numbers

House Republican Campaign Committee raised $195,960; spent $143,366; and has $777,461 on-hand.  Last cycle, HRCC’s 2010 July quarter was $403K raised; $158K spent; and $1.1 million on-hand.

House Democratic Campaign Committee raised $21,625; spent $25,373; and has $137,948 on-hand.  Last cycle, HDCC’s 2010 July quarter was $82K raised; $74K spent; and $230K on-hand.

GOP’s Missouri Senate Campaign Committee raised $134,830; spent $31,820; and has $284,469 on-hand.  Last cycle, Majority Fund’s 2010 July quarter was $164K raised; $97K spent; and $118K on-hand.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee raised $16,630; spent $8,157; and has $98,140 on-hand. Last cycle, SDCC’s 2010 July quarter was $24K raised; $0 spent; and $181K on-hand.

Endorsement Parade

Post-Dispatch endorsed Congressman Russ Carnahan.

Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford gets Sierra Club endorsement today.

And Kansas City Star released their state house and state senate endorsements.  See them here.

Lobbyists Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Matt Hill added TMS Audio Productions.

$5K+ Contributions

SEIU Missouri State Council PAC - $15,500 from SEIU Healthcare IL IN.

Fred Sauer Governor - $50,000 from Fred Sauer.

Citizens for Ed Emery - $40,000 from Missouri Club for Growth.

Citizens for Brad Lager - $10,000 from Burns & McDonnell.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from St. Louis Association of Realtors PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc – $13,500 from Benchmark Healthcare LLC.

Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from St. Louis Cardinals LLC.

McGhee for Senate - $20,000 from Missouri Club for Growth.

Missourians for Koster - $10,000 from Lewis & Clark Regional Leadership Fund.

Citizens for Jamilah Nasheed - $5,001 from Slay for Mayor.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $50,000 from UAW Regional 5 PAC.

Friends of Thomas Long - $25,000 from David Humphrey (sic).

Friends of Bill Stouffer - $8,000 from Porlier Outdoor Advertising.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Comcast’s Tom Krewson (51), Bob Quinn (56), and Rep. Darrell Pollock (51).