Friday, July 20, 2012


Race Revisions

The Cheat Sheet has been updated.  See it here.  There are a few new July numbers for those who were late filing.  And I have changed a few opinions and “confidence levels.”  Those changes are highlighted in a peach-ish color.



Senate GOP

Senate 21 – I’m sticking with Sen. David Pearce in this race, but downgrading my confidence level from average to low.  Pearce started working the ground earlier than Rep. Mike McGhee.  There are whispers that Rex Sinquefield et al will be shoveling a boatload of money into this race.  Pearce, as Education Committee chair, was considered a Senate foe to some of the formers.  Sinquefield’s Missouri Club for Growth has already sent McGhee $60K.  Will more come?  How much?


Senate 27 – I’m switching from picking Rep. Ellen Brandom with low confidence to picking Rep. Wayne Wallingford with low confidence.  Brandom has more cash on-hand and has the personal wealth to put more in.  that could change the dynamic, but right now Wallingford appears to be better organized and holding the Cape base which is critical to this race.


Senate 31 – The other place where money is sloshing around is Scott Largent versus Ed Emery.  I’m keeping my forecast unchanged – Largent, low confidence.


Senate Dem

Senate 1 – Upgrading confidence in Scott Sifton winning to average.


Senate 5 – This is an extremely intriguing race.  I plan to write more about it next week.   But the talk has Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford becoming the consensus favorite right now.  I’m sticking with Rep. Jamilah Nasheed, low confidence.   The main questions are: how well are Oxford and Nasheed working their generally low-turn-out bases?  And with Robin Wright Jones take more black votes away from Nasheed, or take more progressive votes away from Oxford?


House GOP

House 44 – Upgrading confidence in a Dennis Smith win here to “high.”  Strong fundraising, hitting doors, working hard.


House 58 – Former rep. Steve Hendersen is running a lackluster campaign, switching to David Wood.


House 62 – Switching to Tom Hurst in this 7-way primary.


House 124 – Switching to Rocky Miller, better fundraising.  But still with “low confidence.”


House 134 – Downgrading confidence in John Sellars to “low” as likelihood of an Elijah Haahr upset grows.


House 146 – Reverting to the incumbent, Donna Lichtenegger, albeit with low confidence.


House Dems

House 24 – I think Judy Morgan is the favorite in this race, but I’m going to keep my Sarah Gillooly pick as I think it’ll be close and rather get whipsawed switching candidates in a tight race, seems better to wait and watch.


House 68 – Downgrading confidence in Bert Akin as he’s being out-raised by a city councilman.  But it’s hard to beat an incumbent…


House 73 – 56% black district should give edge to Courtney Curtis, but he filed “limited activity” in April and hasn’t filed a July report.  Still open to revision, perhaps Monday.


House 151 – Sticking with Ryan Holder with low confidence.  It’s an inconsequential primary as the Republicans will hold this seat.



Nieves for Leadership?

From Sen. Brian Nieves’ latest email blast:

“Our Sporting Clays Shoot is coming along nicely and I have a Very Important Update about it! We have had a few Extremely Generous Supporters write checks to underwrite the event and that means we can lower the price for the remaining available Shooter Packages! Yes, you read that correctly... Want to be a Shooter? Want a chance at 1st, 2nd or 3rd Place and win $500, $250 or $150 of In Store Credit at Pacific Guns?..


“You'll want to help us raise the funds to make sure I can continue my service, not only as a senator but hopefully in an expanded capacity in senate leadership as the Senate Majority Whip!...”



Emery contra Noranda

Ed Emery’s email to “valued volunteers, supporters, donors, and friends:”


“On July 16, 2012, mailers from Missourians Against Higher Utility Rates began to hit mailboxes of voters in Missouri’s 31st state Senate district…


“Although the hit piece officially was from Missourians Against Higher Utility Rates, it should be noted that the only donor of record to that organization is Noranda Aluminum of New Madrid, Mo. That’s significant because Noranda is the largest electricity consumer in the state and actively lobbies state government in Jefferson City…


“So why the negative mailer? During the time I served as chairman of the House Utilities Committee, Noranda approached their electric provider, St. Louis-based Ameren Corporation, with a request to discount their rates even further. When Ameren refused, Noranda came to me, as Utility Committee chairman, and asked that I intervene. They wanted legislation that would give them special treatment and mandate that Ameren provide lower rates — just for themselves, NOT for everyone across the board.


“Naturally, I refused their request. Not only would such a ‘special law’ for one company violate Article III, § 40 of the Missouri Constitution, it also would have been unfair to the state’s other consumers, who likely would have to bear the burden of additional energy costs. It also would have injected even more government control and price manipulation into the energy industry…”



House Dems’ Dream

Governor Jay Nixon has $7.6 million in the bank… so where are the commercials?  Some kind of magical discipline seems to be keeping the campaign from shooting until they see the whites of Spence’s eyes.


And will House Dems start dreaming that Nixon will deploy some of that cash to help some candidates win and cushion his veto-sustaining minority there?



MASW Search

Missouri Social Welfare Association announced that Bob Quinn has left the executive director position.  They have an interim ED in place while they start a search.



The Wacky Scenario

Whatever…. It’s Friday, I’m allowed a wack-ball paragraph.  Here- Mitt Romney’s steadfast refusal to release his recent tax returns has led to a few theories.  The strongest theory is that he had so many accumulated losses from the financial crisis in 2008 that he was able to offset all his income and pay no taxes in 2009.  You can imagine the commercial – millionaire pays no taxes….


But an alternative theory, surely far less likely, is that Romney had illegal Swiss bank accounts, and one of those years shows that he participated in the IRS’ amnesty program.  If that were the reason, it would be truly fatal to his candidacy.


In that scenario, the Republicans would be thrown into disarray.  And the beneficiary would be President Barack Obama and Democrats.  There.





$5K+ Contributions

Committee to Elect Stan Watson State Representative - $12,000 from Stan Watson.

Missourians for Conservative Values PAC - $200,000 from Better Government for Missouri.

CWA District 6 – Political Education Committee - $34,66 from CWA COPE.

CWA District 6 – Political Education Committee - $20,200 from CWA COPE.

CWA District 6 – Political Education Committee - $15,500 from CWA COPE.

Citizens for Keith English - $10,000 from Keith English.

Southeast Missouri Central Labor Council Political Action Committee - $5,660 from Southeast Missouri Central Trades and Labor Council.



Cash Commentary

Another $200,000 in anonymous Americanas moving into the anti-Kinder “Conservative Values PAC.”




Happy birthdays to Sen. Brad Lager (37), and former RGCA topper Dick Fleming.


Saturday: Axiom’s Christian Morgan, and former Rep. Sally Faith (67).


Sunday: Reps. Rick Brattin (32), and Eileen McGeoghengan, and former Rep. Jason Brown (42).