Thursday, December 1, 2011

MOScout Poll: Tough Environment for MO Dems

My plan is to do some quick small polls during this election cycle.  The first one was conducted Tuesday night.  The sample size was a little small (313 respondents, +/- of 5.6% margin of error), but I plan to improve on that going forward.

The purpose of this poll was to establish a baseline right track / wrong track, and also gauge support for Sen. Claire McCaskill’s and Governor Jay Nixon’s reelection.


The poll showed that Missourians feel that things are “off on the wrong track.”  This sentiment shared across all demographic groups polled.  But it is stronger among Independents than it is with either Republicans or Democrats.


Both Democratic incumbents appear to be weighed down by the environment, though McCaskill is in a weaker position than Nixon.  Here are the results:


Question: “In general, are things in Missouri headed in the right direction, or are things off on the wrong track?”

Right Track – 38.7%

Wrong Track – 61.3%


Question: “If the election for Senator was held today, would you vote to re-elect Claire McCaskill, would you consider another candidate or would you vote to replace Claire McCaskill?”

Vote to Re-elect – 29%

Consider Another Candidate – 26.3%

Vote to Replace – 44.7%


Question: “If the election for Governor was held today, would you vote to re-elect Jay Nixon, would you consider another candidate or would you vote to replace Jay Nixon?”

Vote to Re-elect – 34.8%

Consider Another Candidate – 31.5%

Vote to Replace – 33.7%



More on Redistricting: Unconstitutional?

UNCONSTITUTIONAL!  That’s the accusation from some legislators who look at the map angrily.  What’s their basis for the challenge?  Article 3 of the Constitution says, “no county lines shall be crossed except when necessary to add sufficient population to a multi-district county or city to complete only one district which lies partly within such multi-district county or city so as to be as nearly equal as practicable in population… Any county with a population in excess of the quotient obtained by dividing the population of the state by the number thirty-four is hereby declared to be a multi-district county.”


Johnson County, for example, lacks the population to qualify as a “multi-district county.” Yet it was divided, and not added to another multi-district county.


Will there be a lawsuit?  And what happens then?



One source says that Senate Republicans have a conference call scheduled.  Some in their caucus are upset with the map and may look at options…


A different source says that House leadership has “requested that no one comment on the map until they figure out what they plan to do about it.”



More on Redistricting: Feedback

Lobbyist: “2012 could be another year of 25 new members, which lifts Kevin Engler as a house member nicely to possibly get a chair as a freshman.”


Former legislator: “As a veteran of several redistrictings, starting the numbering of the House districts in the NW rather than the NE corner?  Wrong, just wrong.”


Current legislator: “Don’t forget to talk about districts that have no incumbents in them.  Will some incumbents move, such as Karla May?”


Depressed Dem: “Great day for (James) Harris.  Always had good Republican support will now get Dem support. Bad day for courts and MATA.”




Dave Spence anted up a cool $2 million into his gubernatorial campaign.  The dude is liquid.  That check is a pretty loud refutation to Tom Schweich’s self-float or Ed Martin’s recent radio chatter.



And Team Spence made an artful controlled leak of his DWI from seven years ago.  The news is out and he can move on.



Rep. Ryan Silvey swung through St. Louis last night, and scooped up a cool $10K or so at a Ladue fundraiser hosted by Jack Danforth’s daughter Mary Stillman.



Text of the Day

Source this morning explaining why he didn’t text me back: “Sorry I missed this. My phone went nuke yesterday. I shit you not had 74 missed calls between 230 and 845.”



$5K+ Contributions

UAW Region 5 PAC - $200,000 from UAW V-CAP.

Stand Up Missouri - $48,000 from Security Group, Inc.

Stand Up Missouri - $20,000 from Wallace Management Co.

One Zoo for All - $45,000 from Friends of the Zoo Inc of Kansas City.

Spence for Governor - $2,000,000 from David Spence.




Happy birthdays to St. Louis County Executive Charlie Dooley and lobbyist Frank Plescia (55).