Thursday, February 16, 2012

Senate Map Intrigue

Yesterday, at the urging of Sen. Mike Parson, the Senate suspended its rule requiring legislation to wait a day after it’s passed out of committee before it comes to the floor.  It did so to advance more swiftly Parson’s bill to push back the filing dates.

Filing is set to open a week from Tuesday.  Time matters.  But the Senate needs the cooperation of the House to meet this deadline.  And the House is said to be less enthusiastic under current conditions.

That’s because – according to multiple sources – senators of both parties have been quietly working on a new senate map.  They’re in discussions with the governor’s office which they believe can deliver at least two Dem redistricting commissioners to join Republican commissioners and agree on a compromise map.

The problem from the House leadership perspective is that the contours of this rumored compromise map are not friendly to some of their members.  Most importantly, it would eliminate the new Senate 7 upon which Assistant Floor Leader Jeanie Riddle has laid her designs.

It’s said to also be damaging to the prospects of Rep. Ward Franz to win Senate 33, and – longer term – to Rep. Jason Smith’s possible senate future.  Meanwhile Dem winners, according to the looks of the his compromise, would be Rep. Terry Swinger running in Senate 25, and potentially Rep. Linda Black.  For she might be encouraged to jump into Senate 3.

However with the House unwilling to play with this map, they may not push back filing dates.  That would leave us with the scenario that, on February 28, filing would open using the current senate map.

While there’s no Senate 7 in the current map, Riddle could re-up for her House seat and wait for the possibility of special elections in 2014 based on new proportional maps.  (Not to get too far into the future unknowns, but one respected scenario has 2012 election under old 2001 maps. It would be followed by 2014 “make-good” elections for the all senate districts with then-new maps.  And then in 2016 regular reelections would be held for the odd-numbered senate districts.  We’ll have time to weed through all this later.)

Winners and Losers with 2001 Maps

If we end up with the 2001 maps, here are the biggest losers.

In Senate 5, Rep. Jamilah Nasheed wouldn’t qualify under the residency requirement.  That’s because the relaxed residency requirements in the statutes are That’d be great news for Sen. Robin Wright Jones.

As mentioned above, Rep. Jeanie Riddle’s new Senate 7 wouldn’t exist.

Rep. Scott Largent loses his new Senate 31 district, reverting back to Senate 28 residency.

And Some Winners

Gary Romine in Senate 3 could shift his focus back again to general election.  He’s sort of been whip-sawed by the ever-morphing map

Rep. Mike McGhee can return to a Senate 21 run.

Rep. Ellen Brandom could return to a Senate 27 run.

Sen. David Pearce would have a less rigorous reelection route.

Rep. Ward Franz gets the rural Senate 33 district back, avoiding a primary with businessman Doug Libla and the Poplar Bluff posse.

Worst Budget News of the Year

Form Governing Magazine, a look at the Obama Budget and what it means for states.  Read it Here.

Pull Quote:  “According to the White House’s budget for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), Obama’s proposal would save nearly $360 in Medicare and Medicaid over the next 10 years: $56 billion would come through Medicaid reforms. Those reforms, though, could result in greater costs to states, policy analysts say. They would include... Limiting states’ ability to use taxes on health-care providers to pay a state’s share of Medicaid payments ($21.8 billion)….”

Lincoln Days Bingo Card

The peerless John Combest unveils his 2012 Lincoln Days Bingo Card.  See it Here.

Pirrello for County Exec?

With the Missouri Municipal League in the building this week, one tipster says that Ellisville mayor Mark Pirrello (R) was confiding his plans to run for St. Louis County Executive in 2014.  It’s said that he hopes to raise an early $250K to demonstrate his seriousness, with a total campaign budget of $1 million.

Jolie Files First Legislation of Session

Sen. Jolie Justus filed her piece of legislation yesterday, a concurrent resolution urging ratification of the ERA.  See it Here.

2012 Watch

Patty Johnson started a campaign committee to run as a Democrat in House 56.  Rep. Chris Molendorp is the current incumbent.  Johnson ran against Molendorp in 2010 winning 28.5% of the vote.

Stephanie Fuemmeler started a campaign committee to run as a Republican in House 48.  That’s Rep. Randy Asbury’s old district (he’s moving to House 6).  It’s a toss-up district.

Sam Cummings started a campaign committee to run as a Democrat in House 78.  The current incumbent is Rep. Penny Hubbard.

Clayton Jones started a campaign committee to run as a Republican in House 139. The current incumbent is Rep. Kevin Elmer.

Casey Clark started a campaign committee to run as a Democrat in House 135.  The current incumbent is Rep. Lincoln Hough.  It’s no longer a solid Republican district, but more of a lean district with the new lines.  Clark is assistant prosecuting attorney in Greene County.

$5K+ Contributions

United Food & Commercial Workers Local #655 Elect Political Action Fund - $6,504 from United Food & Commerical Workers Local 655 Elect Political Action Fund.

Missourians for Health and Education - $350,000 from Health Care Foundation of Greater Kansas City.

Schoeller for Missouri - $5,000 from Peter Herschend.

And

This is a jobs election cycle… this morning’s jobless claims were lowest level since March 2008.  Read it Here.