Thursday, June 14, 2012

Where Things Stand – Middle of June

Senate Republican Primary

The latest polling has the three Republican candidates all packed together in the 20% range.

They have all been diligent in staying as far right as far right exists.  At this point, based on money availability, the consensus is that Congressman Todd Akin has the hardest path to victory.

That’s because John Brunner is shoveling money in from his personal fortune.  Since that heap doesn’t appear to have been strained by the first couple million dollars, what’s a few million more?

Sarah Steelman, meanwhile, is said to have some large dollars on tap to inflate her SuperPAC into a fearsome force in the final month.

So the question to be answered here is: how big with Steelman’s SuperPAC go? And is it possible that Akin could muster the necessary amount to be competitive?  If they can’t answer those questions strongly, this is Brunner’s.

Lieutenant Governor

Sen. Brad Lager has funded his campaign almost exclusively from the checks of a half-dozen high net-worth donors.  He needs a second round from them.  If he gets that he can come into the final month of this race with greater resources.

He’s presumably far below Peter Kinder on name ID.  Thus he will need to both establish himself with voters who don’t know him as well as tear down the incumbent.

Kinder meanwhile has a decade of conservative good works which Lager will seek to undercut by highlighting his gaffes and various personal missteps.  It’s a tough tightrope for Lager: to tear down Kinder through personal attacks while raising his own profile.

The solution so far is through anonymous twitter accounts and websites.  Extrapolating this strategy, Lager’s supporters are expected to work through “unaffiliated” third party organizations.  These groups have yet to show themselves, but the nastier it gets the better November looks for Democratic front-runner Susan Montee.

Secretary of State

Of all the August primary races, the July fundraising quarter has its greatest significance in the Republicans’ secretary of state race.  Although Sen. Bill Stouffer has been working hard, the consensus among politicos is that this is a two-person race between Rep. Shane Schoeller and Sen. Scott Rupp.

It’s thought at Rupp’s campaign will require less cash to be successful than Schoeller.  First, as a state senator, Rupp has been representing a larger constituency than Schoeller.  But also because the Southwest television market Rupp would need to buy into is cheaper than the St. Louis market than Schoeller needs to penetrate.

However, Schoeller has been collecting more large checks than Rupp so far, so it’s difficult to call this race, and the July quarter should provide some clarity.

Nasheed Loses Round Two

Yesterday the Appeals Court pushed the Nasheed residency case toward the Supreme Court in another victory for Sen. Robin Wright Jones’ attempt to keep Rep. Jamilah Nasheed off the ballot.  “We would affirm the judgment of the trial court, however, because of the general interest and importance of the issues presented, this case is transferred to the Missouri Supreme Court under Mo. R. Civ. P. 83.02, 2012.”  Read the opinion Here.

Lampe Website Down

As of this writing, saralampe.com was down.  Could it be the transition time before Rep. Sara Lampe finally goes active with a LG “campaign” site?  We’ll see…

Big Court Date: June 25

The Missouri Supreme Court has announced its schedule for the June 25 hearings on the various initiative petitions.  They’re going to start at 1:30pm and they have oral arguments for the tobacco, payday loan and minimum wage initiative petition cases.  According to one observer this is the first time the Missouri Supreme Court has addressed the summary statement and fiscal note involved in initiative petitions since at least the 80’s.   And since the statutes have changed considerably, it’s the first time they have ever addressed the issues presented in these appeals.

According to the schedule, they will take up the issue of whether the auditor can do fiscal notes at all as the first issue covering all the cases.  Then they will argue each case separately.

Veto for SB 749?

The AFL-CIO sent out an “action alert” calling on Governor Jay Nixon to veto SB 749.  This was Sen. John Lamping’s bill which sought to undermine President Barack Obama’s inclusion of contraceptive coverage in health plans. The AFL-CIO said, “Working people should be able to continue to make decisions based on their own religious beliefs and moral convictions, not those of their employer.”

Silvey Draws McCaskill Fire

Via Twitter: Claire McCaskill ‏@clairecmc: “Ironic tweet criticizing the stimulus by Rep@RyanSilvey. He helped spend 4.8 billion of it in Jeff City. #didnthearhimcomplaining”

Not the worst thing for a Republican state rep to be matched up with a Democratic US Senator…

Lobbyists Registrations

From the Pelopidas website:

Christopher P. Moody deleted Health Care Foundation of Greater Kansas City, and LaFaver & Associates LLC.

Ashley Varner deleted National Rifle Association of America.

$5K+ Contributions

Citizens for our Library and Our Community - $25,000 from Stifel Financial.

St. Charles Lincoln County Fire PAC - $10,000 from Central County Professional Firefighters.

MO Republicans Party - $25,000 from Frederick Palmer.

Jay Nixon for Missouri - $50,000 from UAW Region 5 PAC.

Committee for Prop R - $10,000 from Home Building Industry Political Action Committee.

Cash Commentary

Prop R is a ballot question in August in St. Charles about whether to extend a ½ cent tax for transportation.

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Judi Roman.

And here’s an extended list since I’m headed for vacation…

Friday: Former Rep. Martin Rucker (55).

Saturday: Rep. Jason Smith (32), Rep. Bill White, lobbyist John Pelzer,

Sunday: The Great Sam Licklider, former Rep. Barbara Fraser, and Rep. Lincoln Hough (the big 3-0).

Next Week

Tuesday (19): Sen. Brian Nieves (47), GOP House candidate Rich McCane, and Jason Cohen.

Wednesday (20): Sen. Eric Schmitt (37), Zweifel’s Mike Pridmore, and Taunia Adams.

Thursday (21): Jeff Shawan, and Hank Thompson.

Friday (22): Rep. Margo McNeil (64), Ann Auer, and David Poger,

Saturday (23): Sen. Kevin Engler (53) and Retta Crawford.

Sunday (24): former speaker Jim Krieder (57), and former Rep. Danie Moore (66).