Tuesday, April 17, 2012

Session Bits

Senate Debates Education

The Senate spent its Monday session debating the “Turner fix.”  There appear to be four factions: “Free the kids” led by Sen. Jane Cunningham doesn’t want to dilute the Turner case, or give the affected districts the means to escape the ruling.  “Leave the kids” led by Sen. Jim Lembke wants to keep the city students in the city.  “Save the districts” led by Sen. Eric Schmitt is the middle ground which wants the districts to turn back kids when space doesn’t allow.  “Huh” is the rest of the chamber, particularly rural senators who are so far apparently thinking this is St. Louis issue, oblivious that this problem may be coming to a district near them in the enxt year or two.



Fiscal Note Challenge

Sen. Rob Schaaf challenged the fiscal note in the various prescription drug monitoring bills working through the legislature.  Schaaf argued that requiring pharmacists to input data into a database would require extra work on their part, which in turn would raise the price of the drugs, which would raise the costs of the drugs that the state buys.  He had other reasons for thinking the fiscal note should be higher, but the joint committee – chaired by Ryan Silvey – was unmoved and sustained the fiscal note.



Senate Bills on House Calendar

All the bills from the Senate right now are sitting waiting to be second read and referred to committees on the House side.  An early symptom of the gamesmanship between the two chambers which seems to infect the final month of every session?  Who knows?  But it’s expected that Speaker Steve Tilley will refer them this week.




Federal Candidates


Claire McCaskill previously announced that she raised $2.3 million and has $6 million on-hand.

Todd Akin raised $416,581; has $1.4 million on-hand.

Sarah Steelman raised $178,707; has $599,073 on-hand.

John Brunner raised $1.2 million;l has $225K on-hand.


Nothing in these reports changes the dynamics of this race.  It’s still hard to see a path for Akin to win; Steelman needs a substantial capital infusion; Brunner’s name ID is expected to continue to grow according to the ads he’s running; and McCaskill running a good campaign, but vulnerable to the eventual Republican nominee.



Lacy Clay raised $83,592; has $406,066 on-hand.

Russ Carnahan raised $144,699; has $488,81 on-hand.


Slight edge to Carnahan, but not enough to make a big difference.





Jay Nixon raised $1,674,971; has $6,130,704 on-hand.

Dave Spence raised $796,438; has $1,744,137 on-hand.


Spence’s campaign blew through $1.3 million last quarter.  It appears that nearly a million of that went to television commercials.



Lieutenant Governor

Peter Kinder raised $226,471; has $1,276,694 on-hand.

Brad Lager raised $326,370; has $1,108,113 on-hand.

Susan Montee raised $108,543; has $120,226 on-hand.

Judy Baker raised $100,933; has $82,889 on-hand.

Fred Kratky raised $47,977; has $47,727 on-hand.

Sara Lampe raised $22,573; has $25,691 on-hand.


On the Republican side, Sen. Brad Lager has amazingly brought himself into near financial parity with the incumbent Peter Kinder, who treaded water this quarter. However, he certainly till trails Kinder’s name ID, so it’s not true parity.


On the Democratic side, Montee led the pack.  Baker gave $10K to herself to make her $100K number.  Kratky and Lampe  aren’t raising enough to be serious with just three and a half months until the primary.



Attorney General

Chris Koster raised $890,610; has $2,031,292 on-hand.

Ed Martin raised $320,315; has $300,271 on-hand.


Koster obviously has a huge money advantage.  Martin has found his lines of attack and will be relentless, but will he have enough money to be able to break through against Koster?



Secretary of State

Scott Rupp raised $13,660; has $148,375 on-hand.

Shane Schoeller raised $96,084; has $185,893 on-hand.

Bill Stouffer raised $38,675; has $247,157 on-hand (and $199K in debt).

Jason Kander raised $252,911; has $648,567 on-hand.


Rupp actually raised $51K as he filed an 8 Day Report previously.  Overall Schoeller has raised the most money, but Stouffer has the most on-hand.  However Stouffer repay a portion of his loan, and one wonders if the other $200K is in to be used or will be backed out also. Still no breakout leader in this race as they are all within the same fundraising ballpark.


Meanwhile Kander chugs along.




Clint Zweifel raised $257,222; has $1,009,218 on-hand.

Cole McNary raised $39,629; has $75,977 on-hand.


McNary has to put some money in the bank if he wants to be competitive.



Senate Battleground Districts

Senate 1

Jim Lembke (R) raised $191,530; has $291,472 on-hand.

Sue Schoemehl (D) raised $8,234; has $13,310 on-hand.

Scott Sifton (D) raised $30,331; has $72,859 on-hand.


Sifton takes the front-runner position for the Dems as Schoemehl passes on another quarter.  Lembke’s pile of cash looks formidable.



Senate 3

Terry Varner (R) started his campaign committee after the deadline.

Gary Romine (R) raised $28,230; has $110,377 on-hand.

Jim Fallert (D) raised $6,200; has $9,167 on-hand.


Slow start for Fallert.



Senate 17

Ryan Silvey (R) raised $43,125; has $186,439 on-hand.

Sandra Reeves (D) has not yet formed a committee this cycle.


Silvey is putting this one to bed.



Senate 19

Kurt Schaefer (R) raised $65,365; has $358,804 on-hand.

Mary Still (D) raised $64,614; has $113,645 on-hand.


Still holds her own against the Appropriations chair.  However, she remains substantially behind on cash on-hand.



Senate 21

David Pearce (R) raised $37,795; has $146,499 on-hand.

Mike McGhee (R) raised $100,100; has $12,783 on-hand.

ElGene Ver Dught (D) has not yet formed a committee.


Like Senate 17, another district where Dems appear to have punted this cycle.



Senate 25

Doug Libla (R) raised $117,750; has $331,733 on-hand.

Billy Pat Wright (R) raised $22,840; has $55,603 on-hand.

Terry Swinger (D) raised $93,154; has $235,142 on-hand.


Nice quarter by Swinger.  This will be competitive in November.



House Battleground Districts

House 5

Lindell Shumake (R) raised $435; has $9,206 on-hand.

Tom Shively (D) raised $50; has $18,720 on-hand.


Toss up.

House 8

Jim Neely (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Jim Crenshaw (D) started a campaign committee after the deadline.

Clint Hylton (D) started a campaign committee after the deadline.


Sloooowww start fellas.



House 14

Ron Schieber (R) raised $2,975; has $17,270 on-hand.

Eric Pendell (D) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.


Should be competitive, but it’s a bad sign for Dems that Pendell hasn’t even formed a committee yet.



House 15

Kevin Corlew (R) raised $1,770; has $2,807 on-hand.

Jon Carpenter (D) raised $3,040; has $9,848 on-hand.

Shon Adamson (D) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Carol Suter (D) raised $1,750; has $8,355 on-hand.


Dem primary between Carpenter and Suter.



House 16

Noel Shull (R) raised $11,721; has $7,285 on-hand.

Vic Hurlbert (R) raised $12,099; has $9,299 on-hand

Jim Sweere (D) filed Limited Activity; he started his campaign committee a few days before the deadline.


Hurlbert is considered the favorite here, but it’s a nice first quarter by Shull.



House 17

Myron Neth (R) raised $5,100; has $15,070 on-hand.

Mark Ellebracht (D) raised $2,790; has $2,650 on-hand.


One to watch, but so far Neth looks okay.



House 20

Brent Lasaster (R) raised $730; has $1,517 on-hand.

John Mayfield (D) raised $1,330; has $426 on-hand.


This is a solid Dem district, but you still need to work to beat an incumbent.



House 29

Noel Torpey (R) raised $12,740; has $46,585 on-hand.

John Sutton (D) filed Limited Activity.


This is a huge Dem district, but don’t bet against Torpey.  If anyone can beat the odds it’s him.



House 39

Joe Don McGaugh (R) raised $700; has $700 on-hand.

Will Talbert (D) raised $9,635; has $15,739 on-hand.


Nice quarter by Talbert.



House 40

John Kallash (R) raised $871; has $871 on-hand.

Jim Hansen (R) raised $1,400; has $1,116 on-hand.

Paul Quinn (D) raised $1,100; has $4,903 on-hand.


No one distinguished themselves here.



House 41

Beverly Steiniger (R) raised $2,200; has $1,896 on-hand.

Ed Schieffer (D) raised $950; has $676 on-hand.


Schieffer should hold.



House 44

Caleb Rowden (R) raised $9,765; has $8,636 on-hand.

Mike Becker (R) filed Limited Activity.

Chris Dwyer (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Dennis Smith (R) raised $7,850; has $7,850 on-hand.

Ken Jacob (D) raised $46,483; has $44,941 on-hand.


Looks like a battle between Rowden and Smith to take on Ken Jacob.



House 47

Darrel Hansen (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

John Wright (D) raised $2,000; has $840 on-hand.

Nancy Copenhaver (D) raised $3,765; has $2,511 on-hand.


Copenhaver is considered the early frontrunner.



House 48

Dave Muntzel (R) raised $9,375; has $9,362 on-hand.

Stephanie Fuemmeler (R) filed Limited Activity.

Ron Monnig (D) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.


Muntzel off to the best start here.



House 53

Glen Kolkmeyer (R) raised $5,005; has $24,574 on-hand.

Holmes Osborne (D) raised $8,438; has $4,839 on-hand.


Much better start by Osborne this cycle than when he ran last cycle.



House 64

Robert Cornejo (R) raised $7,618; has $7,461 on-hand.

Rick Stokes (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Wayne Henke (D) started his campaign committee after the deadline.


Cornejo has a team together and is the frontrunner.



House 70

Eugene Dokes (R) had not yet filed his April report.

Tyler Holyfield (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Bill Otto (D) raised $1,499; has $7,772 on-hand.


Dems may pick this one up, as Republicans are in disarray in this district.



House 90

Rick Stream (R) raised $11,496; has $29,836 on-hand.

Deb Lavender (D) started her campaign committee after the deadline.


Judging from history, Lavender will likely put up some solid quarters in the future.



House 91

Elizabeth Deal (R) raised $950; has $846 on-hand.

Jeanne Kirkton (D) raised $1,616; has $35,969 on-hand.


Kirkton probably safe here.



House 94

Cloria Brown (R) raised $2,271; has $11,285 on-hand.

Tim Hotop (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Vicki Englund (D) raised $2,806; has $2,347 on-hand.


Toss up.



House 95

Marsha Haefner (R) raised $5,871; has $10,141 on-hand.

Joe Zelle (D) raised $800; has $356 on-hand.


Haefner probably safe here.



House 97

John McCaherty (R) raised $1,050; has $7,336 on-hand.

Sam Komo (D) raised $7,425; has $7,405 on-hand.


It will be a fight, but Komo is expected to return.



House 111

Ian McFarland (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Derrick Good (R) raised $24,020; has $19,092 on-hand.

Michael Frame (D) raised $3,370; has $2,691 on-hand.


Derrick Good has a nice start; Frame had better get with it.



House 112

Paul Wieland (R) raised $2,085; has $3,879 on-hand.

Avery Fortenberry (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Dean Asbury (D) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Daniel James (D) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.


Dems off to slow start.


House 113

Dan Smith (R) raised $6,710; has $5,311 on-hand.

Jeff Roorda (D) raised $41,227; has $38,509 on-hand.



Roorda’s strong fundraising performance, but the strong Dem index means I’ll probably be removing this from the battleground list.



House 115

Elaine Gannon (R) raised $6,310; has $4,345 on-hand.

Joe Detter (D) filed Limited Activity; he started his campaign committee a few weeks before the deadline.

Rich McCane (D) raised $6,533; has $3,628 on-hand.

Dan Darian (D) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.


This is expected to be a Gannon-McCane November battle.



House 132

Melissa Leach (R) raised $700; has $8,893 on-hand.

Charlie Norr (D) raised $5,098; has $7,582 on-hand.


Neck and neck.



House 149

Neal Boyd (R) has not yet formed a campaign committee this cycle.

Steve Hodges (D) raised $1,750; has $4,465 on-hand.


Boyd has to get on the stick if he intends to be legitimate.



House 150

Kent Hampton (R) raised $1,150; has $10,883 on-hand.

Tom Todd (D) raised $500; has $500 on-hand.


Hampton takes the early lead.



Selected Senate Primaries

Senate 5

Robin Wright Jones hasn’t filed her quarter yet.

Jamilah Nasheed raised $7,900; has $36,412 on-hand.

Jeanette Oxford raised $21,345; has $21,345 on-hand.


A nice start for Oxford in just a month of fundraising.  Nasheed showed more expense than fundraising, as she’s already putting yard signs out and phone-banking.  It’s a three-month sprint at this point.  And Wright Jones…



Senate 7

Jason Holsman raised $10,665; has $62,042 on-hand.

Crystal Williams raised $25,295; has $30,676 on-hand.


Holsman actually raised about $50K this quarter because he previously filed an 8 Day Report.  That means he won the first round in this duel.  And it’s expected that he will have a substantial July quarter as more Jefferson City money emerges after the session ends.



Senate 31

Scott Largent raised $4,400; has $31,260 on-hand.

Ed Emery raised $50,150; has $49,771 on-hand.

Dave Morris started his campaign committee after the deadline.


Beside the Humphreys check for $50K, Emery didn’t really raise any money.  That check was one zero away from being a real game-changer.  Largent should win this despite his slow fundraising start.



Senate 33

Mike Cunningham raised $0; has $2,227 on-hand.

Don Wells raised $24,695; has $79,776 on-hand.

Ward Franz raised $25,880; has $161,00 on-hand.


Franz remains the frontrunner here.



Campaign Committees

(Republican) Missouri Senate Campaign Committee raised $109,900; has $181,460 on-hand.

Senate Democratic Campaign Committee raised $26,465; has $89,667 on-hand.


House Republican Campaign Committee raised $271,724; has $724,867 on-hand.

House Democratic Campaign Committee raised $55,520; has $152,597 on-hand.



Lobbyists’ Principals Changes

From the Pelopidas website:


Polsinelli Shughart deleted Teva Neuroscience Inc.



$5K+ Contributions

Stand Up Missouri - $6,800 from Tower Loan.

Schoemehl for State Senate - $20,000 from Thomas P. and Ruby H. O’Driscoll Revocable Living Trust.

Scott Sifton for Senate - $30,000 from Scott Sifton.



Happy birthdays to Rep. Ryan Silvey (36), Rep. Sue Allen, MO Juvenile Justice’s Vivian Murphy, and MO Primary Care’s Joe Pierle.