Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Another Day of Map Madness

The day before hitting the iceberg, people went through the motions of trying to change the ship’s direction.  A fatalism though had already descended.  It was just too late.

Some Republican senators met with a commissioner from the bipartisan commission.  Read Virginia Young’s story Here.

Word was that the senators had expected all four GOP commissioner to show, but got an email a few hours hence informing them that only one was available.  And according to Young’s story, that commissioner – Marc Ellinger – was less than accommodative, saying only a unanimous caucus could incent them to change their work.

Then David Brown – called by many in the building “Kurt Schaefer’s lawyer” – went to Cole County circuit court to ask for a temporary restraining order.  His petition was to prevent the secretary of state from opening filing for state senate races.  Judge Dan Green ruled against it, reportedly saying, “It’s not the Cole County Court’s job to run the state of Missouri.”

And with that a silence pang for more activist judges hit two conservative senators…

So…

Filing opens from this moment, at 8 a.m. this morning.  I’ll be there at the SOS office watching the spectacle and will tweet anything of particular interest – so feel free to follow me on twitter @missouriscout.  Otherwise full run of tidbits tomorrow…

Murphy Tweets Go National

Jamey Murphy – staffer to Sen. Jim Lembke – went ballistic on twitter the day that the tentative maps were revealed.  He has since wiped his tweets clean, but screenshot remains now in the archives of the Huffington Post.  See it Here.

The Great One and Filing

One quote attributed to Wayne Gretzky is “I don’t skate where the puck is, I skate where the puck is going.”

For senate filing today the guess is that people will go where the puck is headed, filing based on the tentative map.

That means I expect to see at least three in Senate 7 – Rep. Jason Holsman, lobbyist Crystal Williams, and former Rep. John Burnett.   (Minority Leader Mike Talboy announced yesterday that he wouldn’t seek the spot.)

I expect to see Rep. Jamilah Nasheed file to primary Sen. Robin Wright Jones in Senate 5.

I expect Rep. Scott Largent to file in Senate 31 and Sen. David Pearce in Senate 21.

The Case for a Conservative Rural Dem in the LG Race

Yesterday the three leading ladies of the Democratic LG race reportedly met in the office of “game-changers” Penman and Winton.  Read Jo Mannies’ Here.

One source says that Party Chair Mike Sanders was planning to prevail on the Judy Baker and Sara Lampe to step aside this time, in exchange for future considerations.

These meeting rarely reach the desired outcome, though one could see how Lampe – who has the smallest base and has raised the least money – might welcome an offer.

The basic math remains: a rural conservative Democrat running against three urban-based, liberal women is the favorite.  To confirm this suspicion I looked at the 2008 AG primary votes.  I summed together St. Louis City, St. Louis County, St. Charles County, Boone County, Jackson County, and Greene County.  They accounted for 147,484 votes – 42% of the total Dem primary votes cast in that election.  My guess is that it’s probably a little over 50% when additional suburban communities are taken into account.

Still it’s hard to see how a rural conservative Democratic alternative – I’m talking pro-gun, pro-life Shoemyer, Barnitz, McKenna type Dem – wouldn’t dominate the outstate areas while liberal Sara Lampe, Obama’s Judy Baker and former Democratic state party chair Susan Montee split the other half.

Can Montee win some rural votes? Yes.  But with a well-funded Baker cutting into her urban bases, it wouldn’t be enough against a good ole county Dem.

More Map Talk

One Dem says that the way Senate 1 is drawn, look for a primary.  Sue Schoemehl has had the district in her sights for some time. But she hasn’t raised much money.  And now with part of the politically astute neighborhood of Webster Groves will be in the district.  Someone will likely be take an interest.

Sens. Jim Lembke and Jane Cunningham are weighing their options.  One hallway dweller said that map fatigue seems to set upon the senate and when the two sought to rally more people to their cause “they heard crickets.”  As a result they seem to be casting their options wide.  For Lembke that includes the possibility of primarying Sen. Eric Schmitt.  For Cunningham there’s at least one eye wandering across the statewide ballot – including US Senate.

It’s said that down in Senate 33 – Sen. Chuck Puragson termed – former Rep. Mike Cunningham might join Reps. Ward Franz and Don Wells in that primary.  Cunningham is current Sen. Jay Wasson’s staffer.

Bits

Jay Nixon for Missouri recorded a crossover $2,000 from Bill Danforth yesterday.  And Spence for Governor reported 12 checks over $500 totaling $12K.

Ed Martin’s press release touts Allen Icet and Phyllis Schlafly endorsement’s… yawn… it’s like the third time they’ve endorsed him in the last year…

Rep. Mike Brown got a lot of floor time yesterday on the House side when they inducted Buck O’Neil to the Hall of Famous Missourians. Dems who haven’t yet forgotten last year’s override vote on the congressional districts were shaking their heads – “So that’s what Mike Brown got for screwing Ds?” texted one.

HSUS and Farm Bureau War

Is it me or is our political landscape devolving into a series of never-ending wars… Humane Society versus the Farm Bureau, Ameren versus Noranda, Kauffman/Danforth versus Missouri Right to Life?  No peace in sight.

Missouri Farmers Care and St. Charles Farm Bureau host a town hall meeting March 8 (7pm) at the St. Charles County Extension Center.  The topic is:  HSUS and the Attack on Missouri Agriculture. Featured speakers include: Sen. Scott Rupp, Rep. Kurt Bahr, Rep. Chuck Gatschenberger.

And

Today Michigan and Arizona vote.  Michigan is a dead heat with the momentum on Romney’s side.  Dems cheering for Santorum.

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Lobbyists’ Principals Changes

From the Pelopidas website:

Kent Gaines added Airport Tech Partnership LLP.

Mark J Rhoads added Missouri Association of Nurse Anesthetists.

Mary Schantz added KC Regional Home Care Assn.

Kelvin L Simmons added all of SNR Denton’s clients.

Stephen Moergen deleted Peabody Energy.