Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Rallies Yesterday

The pro-life groups swarmed the Capitol.  One senator remarked it was the biggest rally he’d seen in ten years.  Labor also rallied on the front lawn.  Governor Jay Nixon addressed them, touting 30,000 new union members in Missouri last year.

 

 

Kinder Whisper Number

With days still left in the quarter, it’s said that Peter Kinder’s quarter is steaming along with a $300K+ number in store when the April reports hit.  He has a big St. Louis event tomorrow night.  Snarks one Kinder supporter, “I’m guessing Sen. Brad Lager’s donor base – 3 supporters – might have to pick up it up a little.”

 

 

A Few Filing Observations

No rural Dem in LG primary is very very good news for Susan Montee.  Easily call her the favorite now.

 

No Sen. Luann Ridgeway for LG either.  Does that ease the PSC appointment process?

 

Why no Dem House candidate against Rep. Galen Higdon in what’s now a nice Dem district?

 

Amazing passes: Rep. Paul LeVota takes over Senate 11 without a primary.  No Dem challenge to Floor Leader Tom Dempsey in somewhat competitive Senate 23, and Sen. Eric Schmitt also gets clean path to re-election.

 

Rep. Cole McNary escapes a primary for Treasurer.  One Republican joked that between his lackluster fundraising, and endorsement from moderate Jack Danforth, he was doing everything he could to get a primary.

 

Rep. Noel Torpey showed up in the last hour to the SOS.  Rumor is that he was mulling a switch to Senate 11, but demurred in the end.  He’s running for re-election in a solid Dem district, but is already knocking doors and will have some labor support.

 

 

New Candidate Filings

As expected, Bill Haas withdrew from Senate 5 and filed for lieutenant governor, bringing that primary to an 8-way race.  Susan Montee has to feel good as the only one with strong statewide name ID, labor endorsements and top of the ballot position.

 

As expected, Scott Sifton withdrew from House 92 and filed for Senate 1.  It’s now a three-way Democratic primary to face incumbent Sen. Jim Lembke.  According to the St. Louis Beacon, Sifton has some impressive endorsements – Minority Leader Mike Talboy, Reps. Jeanne Kirkton and Stacey Newman, as well as former Congressman Richard Gephardt.

 

Terry Varner filed to run in Senate 3 as a Republican.  It’s said that he’s a Tea Party candidate to the right of Gary Romine.  Romine has done a lot of upfront work, but this will complicate his plans.  The district is a Democratic lean, so Varner might prevent Romine from moving to the middle and drawing the Independents necessary to win in November.

 

Crystal Williams filed to run as a Democrat in Senate 7.  John Burnett – previously mentioned as a possible candidate – endorsed Rep. Jason Holsman, so this looks like a one-on-one match.

 

In Senate 31, Charlie Burton filed to run as a Democrat and Dave Morris filed to run as a Republican.  Rep. Scott Largent is considered the favorite to win the Republican primary, and it looks to be a solid GOP district.

 

Former state representative Rebecca McClanahan filed to run as a Democrat in House 3.  She joins Richard Deyweiler, the Kirksville mayor, who filed yesterday.  Waiting for the primary winner is Rep. Zach Wyatt in this 60-40 Republican district.

 

Josh Hurlbert filed to run as a Republican in House 12.  He faces Ken Wilson, a former small town police chief in a primary.

 

Eric Pendell filed as a Democrat in House 14.  This should be a competitive race.  The incumbent Republican is Rep. Ron Schieber.

 

Henry Carner filed as a Democrat in House 22.  He’ll take on Rep. Brandon Ellington who won a special election.  Carner is a former firefighter.

 

In House 25, Joshua Judy and Sally Miller filed as Republicans.  It’s a safe Democratic seat that will be determined by the Dem primary.

 

Dale Walkup filed as a Democrat in House 31.  This is a 60-40 Republican district that where Rep. Shiela Solon has a primary challenger.

 

Ron Harvey as a Democrat in House 33.  He faces Republican Donna Pfautsch in the Republican district.

 

In House 37, Chris Moreno filed as a Democrat and Nola Wood filed as a Republican.  This is the old Holsman district; it’s safe Democratic.  Moreno ran a few campaigns a cycle ago, but the favorite remains Grandview councilman Joe Runions.

 

Kevin Morgan filed as a Democrat in House 38.  He’s pops to Courtney Cole who ran unsuccessfully for House last cycle against Rep. Denny Hoskins.  It’s an uphill battle to beat incumbent T.J. Berry in this 55% Republican district.

 

Former state senator Dennis Smith filed in House 44 setting up a potential wrestlemania aginst former state senator Ken Jacob in November.  Jacob has a primary.  Smith’s announcement came via Heather Grote.  In other words, he’s going professional.

 

Fred Berry filed to run as a Republican in House 46.  Incumbent Rep. Stephen Webber is safe.

 

Ron Monnig filed as a Democratic in House 48.  This is a 50-50 district.  Republicans have a primary. Monnig is a Saline Democratic County Chair.

 

Thomas Minihan filed as a Democrat in House 60.  I don’t know anything about Minihan yet, but I would imagine that Rep. Jay Barnes is safe.

 

In House 64, Wayne Henke filed as a Democrat and Rick Stokes filed as a Republican.  There’s no incumbent here. It’s a Republican lean district. But Henke, a former state representative, should have some name ID and campaign experience to make this competitive.

 

Tony Weaver filed to run as a Democratic in House 67.  He will take on Democratic incumbent Rep. Steve Webb.  Weaver is an Elbert Walton candidate.

 

Greg Lindemann filed to run as a Republican in House 69.  Rep. Margo McNeil is the incumbent.  It’s a 65-35 Dem district.

 

Tyler Holyfield filed as a Republican in House 70.  This is a toss-up district.  The previously filed Republican, Eugene Dokes, angered Ron Paul folks with his handling of the St. Charles caucus and the result is this primary.

 

In House 72, Paul Berry filed as a Democrat and Patrick Brennan filed as a Republican.  It’s a safe Democratic district featuring two incumbent Reps already in a primary (Mary Nichols and Eileen McGeohegan).

 

Michael Butler filed to run as a Democrat in House 79.  This is termed Rep. Jeanette Mott Oxford’s seat.  Butler was Sen. Wright Jones’ LA.  He faces Martin Casas in a primary.  Casas had a large head start on the ground campaigning.

 

Mike Owens filed as a Democrat in House 84.  He’s a former TV personality in St. Louis and is married to an alderwoman.  So despite this being a majority black district (Owens is white), he should be considered a viable candidate.  Also in the primary are Rep. Karla May and former Rep. Hope Whitehead.

 

Linda Rallo filed as a Republican in House 89.  This generated the most in-the-building talk yesterday.  Rallo was previously Rep. Cole McNary’s LA, and she’s primarying Rep. John  Diehl who’s in-line to be Floor Leader next year.  It’s said she’s running because of the Republicans attack on women’s reproductive rights / health care.  That’s not a usual Republican primary issue to run on.  And running to the middle in a primary an unorthodox strategy.

 

Deb Lavender filed to run as a Democrat in House 90.  She’ll face Rep. Rick Stream for a third time.

 

Bill Pinkston filed to run as a Democrat in House 99.  This is a safe Republican district with incumbent Rep. Andrew Koenig in a Republican primary.

 

Ed Rowles filed to run as a Republican in House 101, creating a primary with Rep. Don Gosen.

 

Terry Leinski filed to run as a Democrat in House 104 against Republican incumbent Rep. Kathy Conway.  This is a 55% Republican district.

 

In House 105, Debbie Bixler filed to run as a Democrat, and Jason Smith filed to run as a Republican.  The current incumbent is Rep. Mark Parkinson.

 

Tom Fann filed to run in House 106 as a  Democrat.  The incumbent, Rep. Chrissy Sommer won on a special election, and has a primary.  It’s a lean Republican seat, but is one to watch.

 

Rod Hoffman filed to run as a Democrat in House 107.  This is the district where Vicki Schneider is termed.  It’s a mildly Republican district. Hoffman is a retired principal.

 

Ian McFarland filed to run as a Republican in House 111.  This should be a pick-up for Dems who have former state Rep. Mike Frame running.

 

Daniel James filed to run as a Democrat in House 112.  This is another potential Dem pick-up.  Rep. Paul Wieland the Republican incumbent defending a Democratic district.

 

Bart Ziegenhorn filed to run as a Democrat in House 148.  Bart’s father, Dennis Ziegenhorn, was a state representative.  But this district looks solidly Republican to me.

 

Neal Boyd filed to run as a Republican in House 149.  He faces Rep. Steve Hodges.  This is a toss-up district.  Boyd was an American Idol contestant and so had some star power I suppose.  One to watch.

 

Ryan Holder filed to run as a Democrat in House 151.  It’s a safe Republican district.

 

 

Withdraws Extend Filing Deadline

From the SOS Website:

“Due to withdrawals of candidates, candidate filing remains open until Friday, March 30, 2012 at 5:00 pm. In the following races -- Governor, Senate District 5, Senate District 7, House District 49, House District 93 and House District 112.”

 

 

Bits

Former senator Wes Shoemyer will introduce Treasurer Clint Zweifel tonight at his huge St. Louis event.

 

House 25 candidate Jeremy LaFaver has hired Stacy Steen as his fundraiser.

 

 

eMailbag: Sauer Good for Nixon

“The Nixon campaign is likely doing backflips at the moment due to Sauer's entry into the Republican primary. This does three things: (1) it puts money in the primary requiring Spence to burn some cash before the general - and if Sauer's serious he might pull a Steelman, giving conservative credence to Nixon attacks on Spence for the bailout thing; (2) it might foment a further race to the right; and (3) it's a fundraising boon for Nixon. Seriously, Sauer's entry is worth at least $1 million to Nixon's campaign.”

 

 

$5K+ Contributions

Give Missourians a Raise – $55,000 from Missouri Jobs with Justice.

Missourians for Responsible Lending - $65,000 from Missouri Jobs for Justice.

Friends of Wayne Wallingford - $10,000 from Lloyd Ivey.

 

 

Birthdays

Happy birthday to Rep. Joe Fallert (59) and former Rep. Scott Lipke (43).

 

 

Condolences

Gregg Keller’s father, Juan, passed Monday.