Thursday, March 29, 2012

Ridgeway for Commissioner

Sen. Luann Ridgeway filed to run for Eastern Commissioner of Clay County.  She faces Katee Porter in a Republican primary.  Porter is the incumbent.



House Primaries to Help Clay

As it looked on the first day of filing so it still looks on the last day of filing.  People can still drop out, but right now, the bottom-up landscape in CD-1 is favorable to Congressman Lacy Clay.


There are more contested Democratic primaries on the north-side base of Clay than the south-side base of Russ Carnahan.  House 66, 67, 75, 77 all look to have spirited primaries.  There are some in the central corridor, but the only real south-side primary is House 80.


Without anything brew-ha-ha at the top of the ticker (McCaskill and Nixon being unopposed in the primary) Carnahan will have to create his own excitement to turn-out his voters.



House Bits

The Case for Lavender in House 90?

Democrat Deb Lavender is rematching Rep. Rick Stream.  She lost in 2008 (54-46) and then again in 2010 (56-44).  So what’s different this time?  The environment, Dems assume, will be better this November than 2010.  And the district itself is slightly more Democratic.


Minihan in House 60

Thomas Minihan, Democrat running against Rep. Jay Barnes, is described by one politico as “a longtime party stalwart.”  He ran for Cole County Collector in 2008.  His campaign theme was “Minihan the Taxman.” He lost 57-43.



Southeast House Seats

There are four House races to watch, two primaries and two generals.


House 116 – Sen. Kevin Engler is running for the House seat against a big Tea Party guy.  Turn-out will be key.  One on the ground source says that the “district that doesn’t pull a lot of primary ballots.”  Engler will pull people out.  A small turnout will have a disproportionate number of the far right and he could lose.  But if interest in the statewide primaries, especially US Senate, can bring more Republicans to the polls, he should be okay.


House 146 – Rep. Donna Lichtenegger’s primary could be close. She lost the part of her district that gave her the edge in the primary two years ago.  She has the same opponent, Gerald Adams, who she beat by 300 votes.   She’ll probably be okay, but one to watch.


In the bootheel, Republicans are dreaming of a sweep.  But Dems could pick up a seat depending how on the outcome of two races.  In House 149, the previous Dem tilt is now a true toss-up, and the incumbent Rep. Steve Hodges faces quasi-celebrity Neal Boyd.  In House 150, Rep. Kent Hampton is trying to defeat Tom Todd as he did two years ago.  But now the district is now more Democratic.  Says my source, “Kent has busted his ass down there and will have a lot of help from Congresswoman Jo Ann Emerson and Rep. Todd Richardson.”




KC Star reporter Steve Kraske says that Freedom faces more fines in the future.  Read it Here.



And Politico’s Morning Score says that is giving some air cover to Sen. Claire McCaskill: “The national veterans' group - which has over 100,000 veteran, military family and civilian supporters - will announce a two-week ad buy in Missouri today to praise vulnerable Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. The ad features two photogenic Iraq War veterans from the Show-Me state… This initial buy is $200,000 in the Kansas City and St. Louis markets.”



Seriously, what happened to the BATS IPO?  One take on it Here.



Amazingly the St. Louis American’s Political Eye column has nothing to say about Mike Owens for state representative…




Activist: Not Just Ron Paul Folks Upset with Dokes

“Re: ‘The previously filed Republican, Eugene Dokes, angered Ron Paul folks with his handling of the St. Charles caucus and the result is this primary.’ The Romney folks were pissed, too, as was the state GOP.”



Lobbyist: Looking Like Huge GOP Year in MO

“This will be a worse year for the Demss than 2010. I think the Republicans have a shot to increase their House majority by two or three…  Republicans may lose a Senate seat, the 7th, but get that seat back, the 10th, in 2014. And I think Sen. Jim Lembke wins re-election due to the cycle.”



On the Alleged Existence of a Dem Strategy

“Probably a smart Dem strategy to leave Sen. Tom Dempsey alone, not gonna beat him, so why antagonize him? But start laying groundwork to win that senate seat next time.”



$5K+ Contributions

Missouri Senate Campaign Committee - $50,000 from Dempsey for Senate.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Group MVT LLC. - $75,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Friends of Peter Kinder - $10,000 from Citizens for Timothy Jones.

Schoeller for Missouri - $10,000 from Citizens for Diehl.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $7,000 from Missouri for Charlie Davis.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Friends to Elect Bill Reiboldt.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Citizens to Elect Sue Allen.

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Citizens for Hinson

House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $15,937.75 from Friends for Caleb Jones.

Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from Peabody Investments Corporation.

Slay for Mayor - $10,000 from Schnuck Markets Inc.




Happy birthday to lobbyist Zach Brunnert, and former state representative Neal St. Onge.