Monday, April 18, 2011

All The Republican Congressmen

It’s said that all six incumbent Republican congressmen will descend on Jefferson City today as a show of urgency for the Senate and House leadership to delay no more on reaching a consensus between their maps.

The fear is that if the two sides are able to agree on a map and glue together over-ride numbers, the courts may wreck havoc on their careful negotiated lines.

The question is what combination of carrot and stick they will use and whether they will calibrate their visit well enough to avoid making the situation worse.

What I mean: do they come in and try to strong-arm Sen. Jason Crowell in a way that makes him dig in deeper?

But What About Crowell

At least one observer questions Crowell’s ultimate motivations.

In this view, Crowell is running interference for St. Charles interests – Chuck Gross, Steve Ehlmann and Sen. Tom Dempsey.

By insisting that the Jo Ann Emerson district can’t creep too far north, those Jefferson County residents are moved into the Todd Akin district, and that pushes St. Charles wholly into the Blaine Luetkemeyer district, making it more winnable for a St. Chuck power.

Referencing Crowell’s playbook from last session of picking something others’ wanted (Ford plant bill) and trading it for something he wanted (pension reform), there’s a suspicion that Crowell’s interest in the map is more about what it’s worth for him to sit down in these last four week…

Sarah and Ed Numbers Entice Blaine?

I don’t think so, but as conspiracy theories go, I’ve heard stranger.  Here’s the bit: the weak quarters from Sarah Steelman and Ed Martin, both below $200,000, have Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer looking at the Senate race.  That’s heightened the interest for St. Charles folks in that congressional seat.

Also, Raising the Stakes

First, this is a legacy project.  It’s one of the things you hear all of the time from people who have worked on previous redistricting efforts at either the federal or state level.  So many topics in Jefferson City are visited and revisited.  These things stick for ten-years and are the template for future maps.

Second, there’s a time element.  Everyone else’s agenda is in line behind redistricting and the budget.  Now we’re at four weeks remaining.  And if you figure one of those weeks gets dominated by finalizing the map, and another goes to finish the budget, you’re down to two weeks.  Now if either the map or the budget gets caught in some kind of political quicksand everything else is really crunched.

Paycheck Protection

The head-scratching continues as to why the labor Democrats in the Senate let Sen. Jason Crowell’s paycheck protection bill go through so easily.

The current scuttlebutt is that it was given safe passage in exchange for several other bills being held back.  To avoid getting PQ-ed on a range of issues, the Dems had to feed the anti-labor Republicans something.

Now labor is working on the House side make the measure something they can live with.   One potential compromise would be to push Pro Tem Shane Schoeller’s bill, HB 466.  It still would hurt, but not as bad as what came out of the Senate.

It’d be in Speaker Steve Tilley interest to work the accommodation as it might help to persuade labor to sit out his Lieutenant Governor’s race in November 2012 rather than rally behind a yet undetermined Democrat.

Early Start for State Senate

From the April quarter released last week, here are where folks are with state senate campaign committees.  Obviously until the lines are drawn, match-ups are fluid….

Senate 1

Former state representative Sue Schoemehl sent a few email blasts near the end of the quarter ripping Sen. Jim Lembke as “Senator Cigar,” portraying him as a fat cat enjoying the good life while struggling Missourians were denied unemployment assistance due to his callousness.  Perhaps they were after the deadline, but Schoemehl’s quarter showed $0 receipts.  The main expense was $8,710 to David Woodruff’s Blue Pear.

Senate 3

Sen. Kevin Engler is termed.  The expected Republican candidate will be Gary Romine.  He raised $5,050 and has $43,989 on-hand.

Senate 13

Sen. Tim Green is termed.  And he’s serving as treasurer for Rep. Gina Walsh’s committee.  Walsh raised $30,085, and now has $49,222 on-hand.

Senate 17

Sen. Luann Ridgeway is termed.  Rep. Ryan Silvey has put together a nice endorsement list. Silvey now has $57,107 on-hand. He’s the early favorite for this seat.

On the Democratic side, Michael Reardon and Cathy Rinehart both filed Limited Activity.

Senate 21

Sen. Bill Stouffer is termed.  Rep. Mike McGhee raised $1,095 and has only $28 on-hand.

Rep. Bob Nance raised $0, and has $11,266 on-hand.

Senate 25

Sen. Rob Mayer is termed.  Rep. Gayle Kingery raised $400, and has $2,431 on-hand. Jeff Shawan raised $6,2,80 and has $6,099 on-hand.  Shawan is a serious candidate.  And Rep. Billy Pat Wright raised $2,050 and has $4,450 on-hand.

Senate 27

Sen. Jason Crowell is termed.  Rep. Ellen Brandom has always been a strong fundraiser.  And as Chair of Professional Licensing, she has a nice perch to do it from.  She raised $31,722 and has $71,287 on-hand.

Senate 29

Sen. Jack Goodman is termed. Rep. David Sater raised $13,410 and added in another $47,100 loan to finish with $60,510 on-hand.  Jim Strafuss raised $1,000 and has $984 on-hand. James Strahan didn’t start his committee until after the deadline.

Senate 33

Sen. Chuck Purgason is termed.  Rep. Mike Dethrow filed a Limited Activity quarter.  Rep. Ward Franz raised $26,750 and has $29,687 on-hand.  Rep. Darrell Pollock raised $1,975 and has $2,210 on-hand.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. Mike Colona (42) and MATA’s Amanda Good (32).