Thursday, February 10, 2011

How Many of the Six Will Nixon Deep Six?

The business lobby has put forward a “fix the six” agenda to make Missouri more business-friendly.

The assumption is that the bills will pass relatively easily and unchanged through the House.  The Senate may be more difficult as Democratic interests make a stand, and even some Republicans question the proposals (see below).

But if all six can negotiate the legislative process and land on the governor’s desk, which will get hit with a veto from this governor who aches to be a low-tax, less-government, business-friendly Democrat?  Some are noxious to hard-core Democratic interest groups, but he can’t veto too many or he’ll appear anti-business.

The Six

Franchise Tax – This Gov hearts tax cuts.  Take this one to the bank.

Unemployment Fund Bonding – Gets done. What governor wouldn’t love the idea of issuing bonds for someone else to pay off later?  But President Barack Obama may take care this regardless as he’s floating the idea of extending the pay-back time for states.

Minimum Wage Off the Increase Escalator – This one has veto written all over it.  Not only does it strike to the heart of the Democrats’ union constituency, but it also would reverse a decision by the voters not five years ago.

Assuming Governor Nixon vetoes the minimum wage change, can he veto two of the remaining three of the “six” and still maintain his pro-business posture? Probably just one.

Workers’ Compensation – The change that Sen. Jack Goodman made yesterday in his floor substitute to exempt occupational diseases from the bill, may not satisfy business groups, but Democrats could probably live with it now, and therefore Nixon wouldn’t have to veto – if the Senate version holds in conference committee.

That leaves two to choose from.  They are the discrimination and whistleblower change (which might not make it through the Senate), and the lawsuit reform which would change how costs of a lawsuit are assessed.

Senate and CertainTeed

The Senate can be a more transparent institution because the personalities of senators and their motivations are often on display in debate.  The players in yesterday’s Senate debate on the workers’ compensation changes:

Goodman the Statesman

Sen. Jack Goodman broke with his House counterparts and exempted the CertainTeed – occupational disease – portion from the bill.  Goodman explained that he didn’t think future wrongdoing by employers would be deterred if they made the change, and that innocent workers would die as a result.  Such is Goodman’s reputation and respect that the decidedly pro-business Republican Caucus hardly balked at all.

Mayer the Horseman

Pro Tem Rob Mayer was the only senator to question the move.  And although he was unsuccessful in moving Goodman on the issue, it’s an indication that he’s going to push hard for business-interest “six.”  Mayer will appoint the conferees which could weaken Goodman’s position.

Schaaf the Inquirer

Sen. Rob Schaaf will be an impact player.  He was engaged in the debate yesterday.  There he was, a freshman only in the chamber a few weeks, writing an amendment on the floor and getting it adopted because he’d read the bill and thought a change would make it a better bill.

Rumorville: Behind Clayton Stepping Down

Robert Clayton stepped down as Chair of the Public Service Committee.  The same letter to the governor said that he would remain on the commission.

It was an odd maneuver which spawned a few theories from ridiculous to reasonable…

One source said that Clayton had rankled the thin-skinned in the governor’s office with comments during a meeting – “Video cameras installed in the agenda room record all commission meetings… he made a wisecrack during SCR1 discussions… that (the governor’s office) was not amused by… he got chewed out and a week later decides to step back…”

A more reasonable version of  this – “(The governor’s office) asked Clayton to withdraw the Prop C rule back in December because they did not want to have to choose among friends.  Clayton refused and it cost him his chairmanship.”

And finally the most reasonable of all – Clayton is said to be planning an exit in a few months after session.  That way the governor can appoint a successor without dealing with Senate confirmation right away, and leaving a trail of 2-2 ties while they wait.  This move starts the transition for Clayton to leave after May.

Who’s Next

Either Robert Kenney or Kevin Gunn. 

Gunn has seniority, but was a Matt Blunt appointee (though as an ex-Dick Gephardt staffer he has fine Dem credentials).  Kenney, a Jay Nixon appointee, worked for Nixon in the AG’s office.   Both are from the St. Louis area.

Gub Appointments

On the Senate Gubernatorial Appointments Committee, there are some eyebrows starting to rise at the number of appointments being deemed “independents.”  Because Independents don’t count against partisan caps on the various Boards and panels, there’s Republican concern that the governor’s office trying to “stack the deck.”  Look for greater scrutiny into the political affiliations of appointees labeled Independents.

Pesky Freshmen

Front page NYTimes: “The willingness to buck the leadership was not unexpected given the size of the Republican freshman class, 87 new members, and the fact that newcomers and many veterans felt empowered by election results they read as a mandate to push spending cuts and shake up Congress.” 

Here in Missouri the House Republican freshmen class is still said to be searching for their own role, not wanting to be taken for granted and feeling that they were elected with a mandate.  It’ll be interesting to see if they coalesce behind class leadership and, if unified, how they express themselves in the future.

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