August 10, 2018: GOP Frets About Auditor's Race - GOP Rebukes West - Polling Talk and more...
GOP Frets About Auditor’s Race
Republican politicos and operatives are warily eyeing the auditor’s race and considering if their nominee, Saundra McDowell, is too flawed to challenge the Democratic incumbent Nicole Galloway. A half-dozen Republicans confirm to me that there’s talk afoot to seek her ouster.
The race has taken on extra urgency among Republicans because they fear the passage of CLEAN Missouri initiative will strengthen the role of the auditor as it relates to redistricting. Under that proposal the auditor is assigned the task of hiring a new position, a state demographer, who would draw the districts. Many Democrats blame skewed districts lines for the Republican dominance in the legislature, asking why Dems poll between 45%-55% in statewide elections yet hold only between 30%-35% of the legislative seats.
If the Republican chatter moves to action, there are two paths they may pursue. First, would be an appeal that McDowell remove herself from ballot. She could cite not wanting her residency question to be a “distraction from the important issues of the campaign.” And – one building veteran suggested to me – perhaps the Parson Administration would find a spot for her.
The other option is a lawsuit. I am told that “inquiries” have already been made in this direction by Republicans. And it does seem that Dems won’t be taking legal action to remove her. They are content to grab some popcorn, and hope it becomes a messy fight.
Because no one saw her victory coming this whole brew-ha-ha is very fresh. And consequentially there’s not even a short list of possible replacements in the rumor circuit. The only name I hear as someone who might fit the bill is Rep. Holly Rehder. (And I was told that Speaker Todd Richardson isn’t interested).
The First Hit
Galloway’s campaign unleashed its opening salvo against McDowell. That, together with Kurt Erickson’s article (see it here) where McDowell seems unprepared to deal with the questions, may have further heightened GOP concerns.
Galloway press release: A native of Oklahoma, McDowell first arrived in Missouri in mid-2010 and proceeded to amass tens of thousands of dollars in civil judgments and wage garnishments associated with a failed law practice and poor personal financial management. The largest source of her personal debt is more than $50,000 owed in back-rent and fees associated with a 2014 lease-option-to-purchase a home. She was evicted from this six-bedroom, six-bath Springfield mansion, complete with pool, sauna, and home theater in 2015 for failing to pay rent. While serving as an attorney for the state of Missouri, her wages were garnished to pay her extensive debts pursuant to several court orders. When she launched her campaign for Auditor, she quit her job with the state and proceeded to quickly rack up more than $22,000 in campaign debts. Unlike Galloway, McDowell possesses neither a CPA license nor a background in financial accounting…
Follow Up on Anti-Semitic Candidate
The Kansas City Star reported on the Steve West, the Republican nominee in House 15 whose alter-ego “Justice Jack” has been spewing hate speech. See it here.
Pull Quote: The Missouri Republican Party late Thursday afternoon issued a statement about West’s “disgusting comments”: “Steve West’s shocking and vile comments do not reflect the position of the Missouri Republican Party or indeed of any decent individual. West’s abhorrent rhetoric has absolutely no place in the Missouri Republican Party or anywhere. We wholeheartedly condemn his comments.”
R+9?
There was an interesting discussion on Twitter about the weighting of polls as we head into the general election. See it here. The starter question was: Is it fair to ask after seeing voter turnout last night whether +9 R polling models for the general election in MO are the best predictors?
Remington Research, which does MOScout polling, has been using a partisan weighting for this general election in Missouri at +9 in favor of Republicans.
Discussion points:
· Donald Trump on Missouri by 19 points.
· The conventional wisdom is that Democratic turnout is lower in Missouri in mid-terms.
· The conventional wisdom is that “Independent” voters in Missouri skew conservative/Republican.
· The conventional wisdom is that party which holds the White House suffers in the mid-terms.
· Democratic voters have been energized in special elections across the country since Trump’s election.
Go figure.
eMailbag on MOScout STL County Poll
One reader says that there were hints of the Bell upset in MOScout’s St. Louis County poll months before the election…
In reviewing the Bob McCulloch drubbing, I found that the May MoScout poll had the incumbent at only 46%. Although Wesley Bell was at 28%, McCulloch seemed vulnerable to a good candidate with a good campaign. Because hardly anyone thought Bell was such a candidate, Tuesday's result came as a surprise.
But at the first candidate forum in June sponsored by the NFL Players Coalition at Clayton high School -- which McCulloch did not attend or even bother to acknowledge -- Bell came with a sizable cadre of enthusiastic supporters and campaign workers. Bell that night did an able job of presenting himself, debating an empty chair with Bob McCulloch's name on it. An underfunded but enthusiastic grassroots campaign? Who knew?
Even McCulloch's TV commercials made him look arrogant and tired, which in truth, he was. The voters got it.
Your poll also showed 70% against Prop A, but no coat tails for a union endorsed incumbent, who was at 46%....
New Committees
Firefighters of North County PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Ryan C Kostel.
Lobbyists Registrations
Eapen Thampy deleted Honuxpress.
$5K+ Contributions
CLEAN Missouri - $17,582 from 2018 Ballot Fund.
CLEAN Missouri - $81,100 from 2018 Ballot Fund.
SaferMO.Com - $10,000 from Linda Moen.
WPG PAC - $6,500 from Summit Natural Gas.
SaferMO.Com - $25,000 from AGC of MO PAC.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $10,000 from Major Brands Inc PAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Jason Grill, Gary Nodler, Cheryl Dozier, Mindy Mazur and Jerry Hobbs.
Sunday: Vicki Schneider, Sharon Jones, Mike Haffner, and Rep. Barbara Washington.
MOScout News
We’ve survived the first week of the transition which is the hardest part. Thanks for putting up with the hassles. It’s been taking me a bit more time in the morning, but as I integrate the new system into my routine I should return to 6:30AM-ish posting time.
Two quick things: if you’re not receiving the morning email, let me know so we can figure that out; and today’s Weekly Summary + Who Won the Week, may be coming from a different email address. Thanks!