July 23, 2018: Legislature Might Just Pass RTW Again
Until It Ends There is No End
If right to work fails to gain approval at the ballot box in two weeks, the Republican legislature might simply pass it again. As stunning as that might seem – especially to organized labor which has raised about $15 million to wage the anti-RTW campaign this summer – I spoke to a few Republicans who say that scenario is not out of the realm of possibilities.
There are some caveats of course.
First, it would depend on the closeness of the result. One observer says, “If it is a one or two point loss? Then we would have pressure to re-pass it, but if it is a ten-point loss, no way. That issue is dead for thirty years. [To justify re-passing it, you’d say] it was on a low turnout ballot, compare how many fewer people voted between August and November...not great messaging but if it is a close loss the big donors tell the general assembly to pass it again.”
Second, the outcome of the November elections could also impact the agenda of the legislature – and change this calculation. If right to work fails and Republicans lose seats in both the state House and state Senate, perhaps losing super majority status in one of those chambers, it might temper such boldness.
However this talk isn’t unprecedented.
The Missouri legislature overrode a veto from Governor Bob Holden in 2003 to pass the concealed carry law, although it had been rejected by voters just a few years earlier.
Last weekend’s MOScout poll showed Missourians rejecting right to work 59% to 34%, with 7% undecided.
That’s remarkably close to the actual results 40 years. In 1978, right to work was on the Missouri ballot, and it was defeated 60%-40%.
Here Come the IEs
As we enter the final stretch of the primaries, independent expenditures are starting to be deployed. The limits from Amendment 2 have depressed the fundraising of individual candidates. As a result, money seeking to influence the elections are moving through PACs and onto the radio, cable TV and into mailboxes.
In Senate 18, Missouri’s Future is on the air hitting Cindy O’Laughlin for her lack of support for Donald Trump. O’Laughlin was initially with Ted Cruz during the presidential primary. One lobbyist says, “It's a really good attack because it’s so counter to her brand... [Craig] Redmon is in second, so he would benefit most…”
Missouri’s Future received $50,000 last week from MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice. The treasurer of both committees is Leanna Hagenhoff, legislative director for MATA.
And in Senate 34, Sen. Rob Schaaf is crying foul over independent expenditures attacking Harry Roberts. The hit on Roberts is that he raised taxes during his time as Buchanan County Commissioner. See Schaaf’s Facebook post here.
Rex Re-Emerges
Rex Sinquefield is in the large contributions today, sending $250,000 to his Missouri Club for Growth and $200,000 to his Grow Missouri.
Team Rex hasn’t played as much as they used to, in terms of giving to politicians. They worked to support last session’s tax cut/reform bill, and they’ve been involved in the effort to explore privatization of St. Louis’ Lambert Airport.
But it looks like they will be backing candidate this cycle as well.
Whereas David Humphreys’ issues are mainly tort reform and labor reform. Sinquefield’s issues are education reform and tax reform.
Messer Wedding
Lobbyist Kerry Messer will marry Spring Thomas on August 4 in Wildwood.
New Committees
Kingdom Leadership PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Melissa Largent.
Jeffco Mo Engaged Citizens was formed. It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Laura Zemann.
Today’s Events
Jasper County Missouri Republicans Lincoln Ladies Ice Cream Social at Carthage Memorial Hall – 6PM.
Lobbyists Registrations
Jewell Patek added Gaming and Leisure Properties Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Citizens For Jerrica Fox - $8,000 from Jerrica Fox.
Victor Hurlbert for Clay County Auditor - $7,344 from Vic Hurlbert.
Fagras for Judge - $20,000 from Michael Fargas.
Missouri’s Future - $50,000 from MO Republican Attorneys for Civil Justice PAC.
Midwest Region Laborers’ Political League Education Fund - $7,760 from Laborers Supplemental Dues Fund.
SITE Improvement Association of Missouri PAC (SITE PAC) - $15,675 from SITE Improvement Association.
Missouri Blub for Growth Political Action Committee - $250,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
Grow Missouri - $200,000 from Rex Sinquefield.
House Republican Campaign Committee Inc - $45,000 from Burns & McDonnell Engineering Company Inc.
John Burnett for Jackson County - $15,000 from Charles Laue.
We Are Missouri - $100,000 from Pipe Fitters Association Local Union #533 Volunteer Political Fund.
We Are Missouri - $20,000 from Plumbers Local Union No 8 PAC.
Missourians for a Responsible Budget - $25,000 from CLPAC.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays to Tom Krewson, Darrell Pollock, and Bob Quinn.