July 24, 2018: Final Primary Predictions

Franks Details Mental Anxiety Struggles

Rep. Bruce Franks put a candid post on Facebook about his struggles with anxiety.  See it here.

“I have anxiety attacks, I suffer from depression, I am a black man who has been taught that being strong is how you get through! I’ve learned that getting help is ok. We Gon Be Alright! Please Share! Please Share Rep Bruce Franks Jr.”

One long-time capitol observer calls it as “moving, eloquent description of anxiety, depression, PTSD and survivors’ guilt as experienced by a public figure, and an elected official, as I have ever heard. It’s extemporaneous - after all, Rep. Franks is a battle rapper - and it touched emotionally this white male whose privileges and peaceful middle-class upbringing are about as far from the life experiences of Rep. Bruce Franks Jr. as Mars.

Rep. Franks’ tweet of his Facebook video had been retweeted nearly 100 times 24 hours after its Saturday, July 21 posting. Now I want an update from Rep. Franks. I have never met him but I am sending him prayers and he is definitely in my thoughts.

In a Twitter response, Stephanie Edwards, whose Twitter bio says she is an adolescent therapist from St. Louis, wrote on Twitter at 12:05 a.m. on 7/22: ‘Thank you for sharing as a adolescent therapist the biggest challenge we face in attempting to help make youth is trying to find people/role models that have struggled just as our kids have. Your story will provide strength to others.’”


IE Watch: We’ll See….

Two weeks to Election Day…

In Senate 18, one MOScouter points out that Rex Sinquefield’s recent infusion into Missouri Club for Growth ($250K) could be a prelude to additional help for Cindy O’Laughlin.  O’Laughlin was previously on the board of the Club.  So if they’re going to be helping anyone in this race, it would be O’Laughlin.  It’s awfully late in the game, I’d assumed that money would be for the general election, but we’ll see…


In Senate 32, rumors are that we may see some third-party activity in this district.  It could be hitting as early as today – and according to rumors would be helpful to Rob O’Brian.  We’ll see….


Final Primary Predictions

I’ve uploaded a spreadsheet with my final predictions for the state House and state Senate primary race.  I’m picking a winner in every contested primary.  See it here.

Based on feedback, and additional research, here are the changes I’ve made to this final version compared to last week’s version…

House 5 – Republican primary – Changing winner to Louis Riggs (low confidence level).

House 9 – Republican primary – changing confidence level in Sheila Solon winning from “medium” to “low.”

House 26 – Democratic primary – changing confidence level in Ashley Bland Manlove from “medium” to “high.”

House 35 – Republican primary – changing confidence level in Sean Smith winning from “high” to “medium.”

House 42 – Republican primary – changing confidence level in Jeff Porter winning from “low” to “medium.”

House 111 – Republican primary – changing confidence level in Shane Roden winning from “high” to “medium.”

House 118 – Republican primary – changing confidence level in Mike McGirl winning from “high” to “medium.”

House 159 – Republican primary – changing confidence level in Dirk Deaton winning from “medium” to “high.”


Money Keeps Pouring Into We Are Missouri…

I’m amazed that the organized labor money keeps pouring into We Are Missouri.  You’d have thought they’d have their budget filled out by now.  Yet another $450K was recorded yesterday (see below).

It could be that labor sees the need to “run-up the score.”  If they can produce a 60-40 win at the ballot box, it would deter Republicans from immediately reprising right to work legislation.


Looking Around the Corner

It could be an absolutely topsy turvy general election in some places of Missouri.  Consider this map of Senate 22 – Jefferson County – where Republican Sen. Paul Wieland is a vulnerable incumbent.  President Donald Trump won the district by 35 points!

Yet a MOScout poll of Senate 22 in March showed Trump’s approval at only 50%, with 47% disapproving (a net positive +3%).  And Wieland trailing Democrat Robert Butler 44% to 38%.

I don’t think we’ll be seeing such enormous swings across the state, but in some places 2018 will be completely different than 2016.


New Committees

Progressive Pipeline PAC was formed.  Its treasurer is Frederick Doss.


Today’s Events

Backyard BBQ for DaRon McGee at the home of Rep. Judy Morgan – 5PM.

Travis Hagewood (Dem, House 31) at Elk’s Lodge, Blue Springs – 5:30PM.

Rep. Bryan Spencer at Olivers Restaurant – Warrenton, MO – 6PM.


Lobbyists Registrations

Kristin Czubkowski added White Oak Community Improvement District.

Sonette Magnus added Bird Rides Inc.

Korb Maxwell added Development Associates LLC, F&f Development LLC, Spring Venture Group LLC, White Oak Community Improvement District, BBT Joplin LLC, WBB Inc, Stone Ridge Transportation Development District, and Capital Mall Community Improvement District

Eapen Thampy added Hemp Life.

Evan Fitts deleted his lobbyist registration.


$5K+ Contributions

MO Chamber PAC - $10,000 from William Orscheln.

MO Chamber PAC - $10,000 from Robert Orscheln.

Physician Led Anesthesia Care PAC - $25,000 from Western Anesthesiology Associates Inc.

Missouri’s Future - $10,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy.

We Are Missouri - $10,000 from International Union of Elevator Constructors Local No. 3 PAC Fund.

Housing for All - $17,500 from Kansas City Regional Association of Realtors.

Majority Forward - $10,000 from Southwestern Bell Telephone L.P., d/b/a AT&T Missouri.

We Are Missouri - $40,000 from UFCW 8 General Fund.

We Are Missouri - $15,000 from Operative Plasterers' and Cement Masons' International Association of the United States Gen. Fund.

We Are Missouri - $10,000 from Plasterer & Cement Mason Local PAC Fund.

We Are Missouri - $50,000 from Region 5 Council of United Food and Commercial Workers.

We Are Missouri - $50,000 from Communication Workers of America.

We Are Missouri - $34,000 from Local 881 UFCW.

We Are Missouri - $300,000 from Preserve Middle Class America.



Happy birthdays to Senator Claire McCaskill, Rep. Jean Evans, Kevin Threlkeld, Betsy AuBuchon, Jim Lembke, and Kim Tuttle.