MOScout Daily Update: Special Session Starts - GOP $$$ Calvary for McDowell? - Wave Indicators? and more....

Special Session Starts Today

The special session starts today at Noon.  Veto Session starts on Wednesday.  Don’t look for much real drama this week.  This is, at least in part, because the two top Republicans have bipartisan respect – if not support.

Speaker Todd Richardson – despite the Republicans’ monumental legislative achievements last session – will be remembered for his steady, measured leadership of the House with controversies at each bookend.  John Diehl’s resignation bringing him to the corner office, and Eric Greitens’ multiple scandals dominating his final year. Richardson played a cool and fair hand in both situations.

Additionally, Governor Mike Parson’s honeymoon continues.  From a Republican operative who has data on Parson from some recent polling… [Parson] has the highest approval levels among all Republican statewide office holders.  Of the Republicans who have an opinion of the Governor, 74% approve.  Of Democrats, he holds a 66% approval rating. 

Dems will stomp their feet at times for sure.  Rep. Barbara Washington on twitter last week took issue with the computer sciences legislation (see it here).  Sen. Rob Schaaf will likely rail against dark money.

But generally speaking folks are expecting a smooth week.

Will GOP $$$ Come to Save McDowell?

Although Saundra McDowell’s bid to become auditor has be beset by multiple problems, some think that the Republican donor class will come in and rescue her.  

As of her latest fundraising report last week, the McDowell campaign has about $5,000 in the bank and a little over $20,000 in debt.  

I did a quick ask-around to see what folks thought about that possibility of big donors coming in to bail out her campaign.  Generally speaking, few see a rescue mission happening.   The two reigning sentiments are: first, it’s going to be hard to decouple the auditor’s race from the political environment; second, if help does come it will be in an independent blast near the end because polling says the race is close enough to influence.

Here’s a sample…

I think leave [they] her in the wind.  No real interest to help her… [though] could change if she gets her [stuff] together.

Having hard time seeing her getting any fundraising momentum… Hawley would have taken all the money even if the auditor candidate was solid.  Definitely taking it all when she’s not.

I don’t think money will come in for her.  But Galloway’s name ID is so low that I think the Auditor’s race is handcuffed to the Senate race.

Donors do not trust McDowell with money.  [But] I would expect PACs to prop her up and tear Galloway down.

Romine Floor Leader Bid

Sen. Gary Romine, who was once said to be eyeing a bid for senate pro tem, is now exploring the floor leader’s race instead.  However observers watching that race don’t see his entry having much of an impact on the vote counts of either Sen. Denny Hoskins or Sen. Caleb Rowden.

Why GOP Should Be Afraid of a Wave

In one chart – right here.  From Axios.  Some of these indicators are specific to Congress. And there are some countervailing stats – unemployment rate, stock market highs – that aren’t on this graph. But the general environment is not good for Republicans…

Bits

PR guru Scott Charton goes on Missouri Viewpoints to pitch Prop B – SaferMO.com. See it here.

Former Rep. Chris Kelley says on Twitter he’s a No vote on all the MMJ IPs in November. See it here. “I am the first person in Missouri to sponsor legalization.  I will vote NO on all of them because of the way they are written.”

Former Greitens donor Elliot Broidy makes headlines… “The onetime mistress of former deputy Republican National Committee Finance Chairman Elliott Broidy alleged in newly revealed court documents that she was physically abused by Broidy…” See it here.

Jason Hancock reports on John Diehl making some deals.  Controversy again.  See it here.

And

He hasn’t decided yet if he’s running for president, but Michael Avenatti has already made a strategic 2020 decision. The attorney will base his national presidential campaign headquarters in St. Louis, Mo. should he launch a White House bid, he told POLITICO on Sunday. Best known for representing porn actress “Stormy Daniels” and holding an outsized presence on cable TV, Avenatti said he sees the Midwest as key to a successful run for president. He believes he’ll be the first presidential candidate to headquarter in St. Louis since Dick Gephardt’s 1988 presidential run (Gephardt’s 2004 campaign was based in D.C.). “I grew up there, I have ties to the area, my parents still live there; they’re getting older. It’s centrally located in the country. It’s the place that I identify most closely with as home,” said Avenatti, whose family moved to the St. Louis suburbs when he was 11. “If I do this, I’m going to spend a significant part of my campaign in the Midwest.”   See it here.

Events

Tony Luetkemeyer fundraiser at the home of Rich AuBuchon, Jefferson City – 6PM.

Help Wanted

Alzheimer's Association seeks Director of Public Policy. “The Director of Public Policy manages state governmental affairs and advocacy efforts in Missouri as well as the Ambassador Program for Congressional Advocacy. The Director also promotes the mission of the organization by building and mobilizing grassroots advocacy, interacting with policy makers, committees, coalitions, and communicates the Association's public policy priorities…”  See it here.

Lobbyists Registrations

Trent Watson deleted Mid-America Retail Food Industry Joint Labor-Management Committee.

Lon Lowrey deleted Lon Lowrey Consulting LLC, and Novartis Services, Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

Viceroy PAC - $15,000 from Golden Entertainment.

New Approach Missouri - $15,000 from Timberland Bay Properties LLC.

Republican Central Committee of St Louis County - $50,000 from Ralph and Ruth Deuser Trust.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays Erika Leonard, Jill Kline, Tom Madden, and Ian Dunlap.