MOScout Daily Update: Budget Overrides Coming? - MOScout Races Status Spreadsheet - PAC to PAC Ban Overturned and more....

Look for Some Budget Overrides

As Jefferson City revs up for the Veto Session, word is that the House will likely override the governor on some budget line items.  Two sources tell me that negotiations between the second floor and the legislature had been ongoing for weeks, but that they’ve ultimately proven fruitless.

Some figured that Governor Mike Parson would acknowledge that his sudden ascension to the governor’s office via Greitens’ resignation led to a rushed review; he’d admit a mistake; and find a compromise as a face-saving avenue.  It appears the governor is sticking by his vetoes.

What It Means

I assumed with Justin Alferman and Robert Knodell in the governor’s office, there’d be an easy peasy relationship with the House.  And presumably, there still is.  But it doesn’t mean they’ll see eye to eye on every issue.

MOScout Race Ratings

I created a spreadsheet (see it here) putting each House and Senate race into a category – “uncontested,” “safe,” “likely,” and “lean” – to give a bird’s eye view how this cycle is shaping up.  I’m eschewing the “toss-up” category because it’s just gets too easy to throw close races in there. Also I have no fear of being wrong.  In truth the “leans” of either direction are my toss-up category. 

The spreadsheet is pretty self-explanatory.   The districts are identified by their current or most recent incumbent, not by who’s running this cycle.

The Math

I have Dems +1 in the Senate, and +3 in the House.   But if the leans could go either way according to the tide of the evening, the range is: Senate even to +2 Dems; House: +1 Dems to +8 Dems.

PAC to PAC Transfer Bans Struck Down

Post-Dispatch reports that “a federal appeals court agreed with a lower court ruling Monday that Missouri cannot ban contributions between political action committees. Despite concerns about dark money flowing into Missouri politics heading into the November midterms, the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals sided with U.S. District Court Senior Judge Ortrie Smith that the ban violated free speech laws. ‘The district court concluded that the prohibition unconstitutionally infringed on a political action committee’s First Amendment rights to freedom of speech and association,’ the ruling noted. The decision permanently stops the Missouri Ethics Commission, which oversees campaign finance laws, from enforcing a ban on political action committees from receiving contributions from other PACs…”

Still

Although Amendment 2 has continues to undergo what seems to be a piecemeal dismantling, it’s had some impact on the fundraising culture.  One politico tells me: I think the campaign finance laws are actually helping. It hasn’t reduced the appetite of politicians for more and more money, but it gives donors the excuse to say they can’t give the HUUUGE checks anymore. Sort of keeping the honest people honest kinda thing….

Bid to Streamline

Beyond the rhetoric of making government more business-friendly, comes the hard work of making it a reality.  A recent RFP from the state shows the importance of competent governance.  This RFP is just to help restaurants navigate the system better.  And although it’s aiming for a “one-stop shop” experience, it doesn’t include the SOS website even though that’s also part of the paperwork hoops a new restaurant would need to jump through.

From the RFP:  The State of Missouri… issued this Request for Proposal for the purpose of establishing a contract to acquire the services of an independent third party consultant to develop a streamlined, online, one-stop shop inter-agency digital registration web application that seamlessly interacts with all state agencies that are involved in registering a new restaurant for business (for the pilot, identified as the Department of Revenue (DOR), the Department of Labor and Industrial Relations (DOLIR), and the Department of Public Safety (DPS)).  The web application will have a single point of entry, and a user-centric interface… A contract resulting from this RFP will allow, at the sole discretion of the state, expansion of the web application to include digital registration for additional state agencies and additional business types….

Missouri aspires to be the easiest state in the country in which to register a business. One step in achieving this goal is creation of an easy to use, one-stop shop web application, which gives the appearance of seamless communication between state agencies, where a business can, at a minimum: Be led through the process of understanding the registrations that are necessary based on the nature of the business in a “wizard” style format; and enter data once into a single template that may be used for all required registrations and can be saved such that the business can come back at a future date to add additional registrations as they become necessary and/or the business is ready to proceed.

Currently an individual or entity seeking to register a restaurant to do business in Missouri would need to visit several websites and/or state government agencies to meet state registration requirements.  The registration process is time consuming and often results in those registering being required to provide duplicate information on different documents for the different agencies they must register with….

FYI

Also from the RFP, this nugget: During the first quarter of 2018, 262 restaurants began business in the state of Missouri….

Diehl Reaction

Following the first-rate Jason Hancock’s reporting on former speaker John Diehl wading back into the deal-making side of politics, the private eye-rolling spilled over onto Twitter.  Jeff City might have a short memory, all’s not yet forgotten.

The mighty Jason Rosenbaum reminded folks on Twitter that Diehl bobbed, weaved and deceived for weeks before resigning. “One frustrating aspect of the Greitens saga was revisionist history surrounding Diehl. Some said he resigned as soon after being confronted w/ text scandal. Wrong. He engaged in an elaborate deception scheme with reporters for weeks before @J_Hancock wrote his story.”

And Sarah Felts, a Democrat, but also herself House intern years ago, pulled no punches: “Indeed, how could anyone have a genuine concern about a man who ran on a platform that included ‘family values’, abused his public office by sending sexually explicit messages to a college intern 30 years his junior, lied about it, & resigned only after being caught? #MoLeg”

Dems Plan to Empty Trump Rally?

Daily Caller reports that a “county Democratic chapter in Missouri has a plan to resist President Donald Trump, and it involves rally tickets and baby balloons. Cape Girardeau County Democrats told supporters in an email to snatch up tickets to Trump’s scheduled rally on Thursday, with the intent of leaving the stadium empty. Trump is set to campaign for Republican U.S. Senate candidate Josh Hawley. ‘President Trump is coming to town, so it is time GEAR UP! Here is what is going to happen,’ the Cape Democrats wrote. ‘RIGHT NOW go to: [Trump rally website] and get your two free tickets…. this will empty out the stadium.’”

Events

Rep. Sheila Solon & Rep. Shamed Dogan fundraiser at Palm Strategies Group Office, Jefferson City – 5PM.

New Committees

Daniele Robertson formed a candidate committee (Friends Of Danielle Robertson For Carter County Clerk) to run for Carter County Clerk as a Democrat.

Richard Ollis formed a candidate committee (Richard Ollis For City Council) to run for Springfield City Council.

Lobbyists Registrations

Charles M Ambrose deleted University Of Central Missouri.

Christopher Crancer deleted Center For Diagnostic Imaging.

Brian Handshy deleted Renovate America Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

A Better Missouri Political Action Committee - $25,230 from Anheuser-Busch Cos.

SaferMo.Com - $50,000 from Pace Construction Company.

SaferMo.Com - $150,000 from Emery Sapp & Sons.

MO Consumer Lenders PAC - $8,000 from Advance America.

George Heim - $5,300 from George Heim.

UAW Region 5 Midwest States Political Action Committee (PAC) (MO) - $6,000 from UAW Region 5 Exchange Account.

Friends of the St Louis Zoo - $75,000 from Michael Staenberg.

AGC of MO PAC - $5,410 from Emery Sapp & Sons Inc.

AGC of MO PAC - $5,430 from Missouri Petroleum Products.

AGC of MO PAC - $6,150 from Fabick CAT.

Local 41 Political Action Fund - $17,424 from DRIVE Committee.

Grow Missouri - $105,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

Jobs with Justice Ballot Fund - $90,000 from Proteus Action League.

United Transportation Union Political Action Committee - $19,000 from United Transportation Union Political Action Committee.

Ecumenical Leadership Council of MO Political Action Committee - $62,000 from Committee to Protect Mo Families.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Rep. TJ Berry and A.J. Bockelman.