MOScout Daily Update: Parson Acts on Housing Credits - More MOScout Maps - Talent Talks CLEAN and more...
Hawley Rebuts ACA Attack
Pro-McCaskill third-party groups have been attacking on Attorney General Josh Hawley for his lawsuit against the Affordable Care Act, saying that he is against the provision requiring insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions. It’s one of the features of Obamacare which enjoys wide support among Americans.
In a sign that the attack may be working, Hawley’s campaign released an ad in which he shares his personal story and affirms his support for the policy. See it here.
Parson Makes MHDC Appts, Announces Roadmap for Reform
The press release: Governor Mike Parson announced two new appointments to the Missouri Housing Development Commission: Mark Elliff of Carthage and Rick McDowell of Parkville. The Governor also called upon the Missouri General Assembly to assemble working groups to prioritize tax credit reform legislation for the next legislative session.
“We are confident in the legislature’s ability to develop tax credit reforms that address housing needs, while ensuring greater accountability and an increased return on the investment of taxpayer dollars,” said Governor Mike Parson. “As a member of the Commission, I am committed to considering current federal tax credit applications, but until substantial reforms are enacted, state tax credits will not be issued.”
Talent Dogs CLEAN
Former Senator Jim Talent went on the mighty Jason Rosenbaum’s Politically Speaking to talk about the CLEAN Missouri proposal. He’s the topper of Missouri First, the anti-CLEAN group.
At the 10:20 minute point Talent echoes GOP talking point which troubles some on the left… “It would decimate the number of African American seats in the legislature precisely because in an attempt to reach these partisan goals it would have to spread around any solid pocket of either Republicans or Democrats…”
Supporters of CLEAN have rebutted this charge in part by pointing to their list of endorsers: “The campaign’s very first significant donation was from the Deaconess Foundation. Its treasurer is Rod Chapel. And the policy has earned the support of the NAACP the Organization for Black Struggle Missouri Faith Voices, DEMOS, Deaconess Foundation CBTU, SEIU, UFCW, Missouri Jobs With Justice, Campaign Legal Center Common Cause, Democracy Initiative, Treasurer Tishaura Jones, Rev. Rodney Williams, Ron North, Rasheen Aldridge…”
Where We Are
Missouri total population: 5,988,927
Missouri African American population: 693,301 = 11.6%
11.6% House seats = 18.90
African American House members (factoring Gail McCann Beatty’s seat) = 20
11.6% Senate seats = 3.94
African American Senate members (including Karla May and not Jake Hummel) = 4
I think its arguable exactly what the impact of Clean Missouri will be, but the status quo at least seems to be OK for African American representation.
More MOScout Maps
By popular demand, I ordered up five more maps from the amazing J Miles Coleman. They show the 2016 performance of these House districts.
House 10 – See the map here. This is Pat Conway’s district. He’s term-limited. The Dems had a primary and Austin Montee – son of former auditor Susan Montee - was upset. I think Dems hold it, but it could be dogfight.
30 Day COH
Republican Bill Falkner: $2,110 on-hand.
Democrat Shane Thompson: $2,864 on-hand.
House 34 – See the map here. Rep. Rebecca Roeber should be ok, but a recent MOScout poll of Senate 8 showed President Donald Trump underwater in her district. That has some folks thinking she could be in trouble if the suburbs go blue.
30 Day COH
Roeber: $34,402 on-hand.
Democrat Jim Ripley: $7,811 on-hand.
House 50 – See the map here. This was a very competitive special election. It’s unclear though whether the rematch will be a toss-up.
30 Day COH
Sara Walsh: $28,456 on-hand.
Michela Skelton: $31,363 on-hand.
House 95 – See the map here. Rep. Marsha Haefner is termed. This South St. Louis County district has a fair amount of organized labor, and the right to work numbers showed it. Can Dems parlay that into a win here?
30 Day COH
Republican Michael O’Donnell: $198 on-hand.
Democrat Mike Walter: $14,812 on-hand.
House 96 – See the map here. Rep. David Gregory has plenty of money, and should be fine here. But it’s next door to House 94 and 95, and Democrat Erica Hoffman is talking about education and trying to tap into the suburban mom discontent.
30 Day COH
Gregory: $52,190 on-hand.
Hoffman: $8,983 on-hand.
MOScout Forecast Update
Making two minor adjustments to the forecast spreadsheet. I plan to do updated each Tuesday. See the spreadsheet here. Moving Rep. Cheri Toalson Reisch from “likely Republican” to “tilt Republican,” and the same for Springfield’s Rep. Steve Helms.
This doesn’t change my current bottom-line projection (+2 Dems), but it does increase the range in favor of Democrats (from +3 GOP to + 14 Dems).
Herschend Gives $10K to Parson PAC
In the large contributions (below) Peter Herschend gave $10,000 to Uniting Missouri PAC – the pro-Mike Parson PAC spearheaded by Republican operative John Hancock. Herschend was just given a recess appointment to the State Board of Education.
One Republican shrugged when I mentioned the poor optics of this, “He’s been a stalwart GOP donor for years.”
New Committees
Shawn Finklein formed a candidate committee (Committee To Elect Shawn Finklein) to run in House 64 as a Democrat.
Constance Garcia formed an exemption committee to run as an Independent in House 109.
International Union Of Painters & Allied Trades Pat Federal PAC was formed. Its treasurer is Carl Farrell.
Miller County Mo Democratic Committee was formed. Its treasurer is Peter Groce.
Lobbyists Registrations
William Gamble, David Jackson, and Jorgen Schlemeier deleted Saint Louis Zoo Association.
William Gamble, David Jackson, Sarah Topp and Kathryn Gamble deleted Journey to New Life Inc.
$5K+ Contributions
Friends of the St Louis Zoo - $100,000 from Emerson Electric Company.
Johnson & Johnson PAC Missouri (affiliated with Johnson & Johnson Federal PAC) - $10,000 from Johnson & Johnson Federal PAC.
SaferMo.Com - $15,000 from Old Castle Materials, Inc.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from MO Majority PAC.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Catalyst PAC.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $15,000 from Blue Dart Ventures LLC.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $10,000 from Peter Herschend.
Protect Missouri Workers PAC - $50,000 from Simmons Hanly Conroy.
SaferMO.Com - $100,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.
SaferMO.Com - $20,000 from MLPA Legislative Fund.
Birthdays
Happy birthdays Rep. Bryan Spencer, Jeff Roe, Katie Reichard, Gordon Reel, and Mark Schwartz.
Condolences
To Dave Hageman on the passing of his sister, Jenny Tillman, after a courageous battle with cancer. See the obituary here.