MOScout Weekender: Poll on Statewides - Hallway on Speaker Pro Tem - Who Won the Week and more...

MOScout Weekly Poll: Statewides

See the latest MOScout Weekly Poll here.

TOPLINES

Q: The candidates in the 2018 General Election for United States Senate are the Republican Josh Hawley and the Democrat Claire McCaskill. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Josh Hawley: 48%

Claire McCaskill: 46%

Undecided: 6%

 

Q: The candidates in the 2018 General Election for State Auditor are the Republican Saundra McDowell and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Saundra McDowell: 44%

Nicole Galloway: 43%

Undecided: 13%

 

Q: Has the Supreme Court confirmation process for Brett Kavanaugh made you more likely to vote for Claire McCaskill or less likely to vote for Claire McCaskill, or made no difference?

More likely: 42%

Less likely: 49%

No difference: 9%

 

Q: Shall Missouri law be amended to fund Missouri state law enforcement by increasing the motor fuel tax by two- and one-half cents per gallon annually for four years beginning July 1, 2019, exempt Special Olympic, Paralympic, and Olympic prizes from state taxes, and to establish the Emergency State Freight Bottleneck Fund?

Yes: 26%

No: 46%

Undecided: 28%

 

Q: Do you want to amend Missouri law to increase the state minimum wage to $8.60 per hour with 85 cents per hour increase each year until 2023, when the state minimum wage would be $12.00 per hour; exempt government employers from the above increase; and increase the penalty for paying employees less than the minimum wage?

Yes: 52%

No: 31%

Undecided: 17%

What It Means

Both the US Senate race and the state auditor race have the same pattern.  The Republican overwhelmingly winning Republicans; the Democrat overwhelmingly winning Democrats; and a slight Democratic tilt among non-partisans.  What that means: looks a lot like a turnout election.  Both candidates own their base, it’s matter of who turns out more of their base.

Also note: the same partisan split occurs in the question about whether the SCOTUS nomination process has impacted the US Senate race.

And

Despite the gas tax being far below water, without any organized opposition, I won’t be shocked if it ends up passing.  This is what happened when the Realtors passed their constitutional amendment to prevent a sales tax expansion.  That started deeply negative and a well organized campaign lifted it to victory – in the absence of a counter-campaign.

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: House Speaker Pro Tem Race

I asked the lobbyists and hallway walkers who they thought would win the House leadership race for speaker pro tem.  Folks see this as a two-person race, with Travis Fitzwater as the most likely winner.  27 responses.

Travis Fitzwater…     66.6%

Justin Hill…      0%

Glen Kolkmeyer…   0%

John Wiemann…    25.9%

No Opinion…     7.4%

Sample of comments

Travis Fitzwater

This is really a two-way race between Fitzwater and Wiemann. I expect Fitzwater to edge Wiemann out, but it is going to be very close.

Although it is neck and neck with him and Wiemann.  Wiemann has been working longer but Fitzwater is coming in strong at the end.

 

John Wiemann

Not clear cut by any means but giving the edge to Wiemann, seems to be very well respected within his caucus and a good fundraiser…

I’m still leaning toward Wiemann.  He’s likeable and putting in the work.  I think the race is between him and Fitzwater overall.

 

Must Everyone Be Constantly Lying, Cheating, Scamming?

Tony Messenger writes about email spoofing scam.  Apparently someone – Messenger insinuates that Johnson & Johnson is behind it – is picking random people and pretending to be them sending emails to legislators.  And sometimes they just make up people’s names.  Read it here.

 

Who Won the Week?

Download Who Won the Week here.

WINNAHS

Claire McCaskill – Josh Hawley’s ad focusing on his sudden unwavering support for the pre-existing conditions provision of the Affordable Care Act means that the pro-McCaskill attack line was working. And it means that the Republicans’ main tool for bludgeoning Democrats in the past – ObamaCare – has been neutered.

Nicole Galloway – Her office issues a continuing stream of audits, big and small, uncovering questionable practices, negligence and just plain wrong-doing.

State Board of Education – After months and months without a commissioner and a quorum, they’re back in business and starting their search for a new topper.

St. Louis – On the sidelines of my son’s soccer game last night there was talk of the Kavanaugh hearings, but mainly it was talk of the possible new soccer stadium.

 

Driving the Monday News

Auditor Nicole Galloway will be traveling the state on Monday to release her office’s latest audit.  This one is on the sex offender registration program.  “The audit examines the noncompliance rates and enforcement of registry requirements statewide. The report also includes noncompliance rates by county.”

You don’t do a fly-around if everything is hunky-dory with the program…

 

New Committees

6th Democratic Senate District Committee was formed.  Its treasurer is Larry Hunt.

Ford Motor Company Civic Action Fund – Mo was formed.  It’s a PAC.  Its treasurer is Chris Williams.

 

$5K+ Contributions

House Victory Committee - $10,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

SaferMO.Com - $50,000 from Regional Business Council.

Friends of the St. Louis Zoo - $25,000 from James Berges.

Find the Cures - $9,925 from Bradley Bradshaw.

New Approach Missouri - $5,001 from NMG 2005 Inc.

Missouri Health Plan Association PAC - $50,000 from Centene Management Company LLC.

Ford Motor Company Civic Action Fund – MO - $45,000 from Ford Motor Company Civic Action Fund.

Citizens to Protect Tax Revenue and Jobs - $18,640 from Penn National Gaming Inc.

MO Opportunity PAC - $10,000 from Timothy Drury.

MO Opportunity PAC - $25,000 from KBA Investments LLC.

RQC PAC - $64,700 from Missouri Health Care Association.

Civil PAC - $10,000 from United Food & Commercial Workers Union Local 655.