MOScout Weekender: Poll on Statewides - Hallway Peers into Future - Who Won the Week and more...
How MNEA’s IPs Could Lead to Consolidation
One reader explains… “The reason rural school districts are scared of Missouri NEA’s proposal is that will cause the state to spend more per pupil. To streamline costs, lawmakers would likely have to end the small schools grant program – which basically protects schools from having to consolidate. It is likely lawmakers would be forced to end this program if they’re forced to have “fair and equitable funding” of schools, statewide. These proposals from NEA could really be an uncomfortable situation of urban / suburban schools vs. rural schools.”
eMailbag on Cig Tax
Such an embarrassment. Wanna reduce healthcare costs (hello? Medicaid?)? Raise the cigarette tax, Einstein.
MOScout/Remington Poll: Statewides 2020
Survey conducted October 9 through October 10, 2019. 1,451 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-2.5%. See full results here.
Q1: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Mike Parson: 53%
Nicole Galloway: 41%
Undecided: 6%
Q2: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for Attorney General of Missouri are the Republican Eric Schmitt and the Democrat Elad Gross. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Eric Schmitt: 53%
Elad Gross: 37%
Undecided: 10%
Q3: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for State Treasurer of Missouri are the Republican Scott Fitzpatrick and the Democrat Vicki Englund. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Scott Fitzpatrick: 50%
Vicki Englund: 40%
Undecided: 10%
Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for Secretary of State of Missouri are the Republican Jay Ashcroft and the Democrat Yinka Faleti. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Jay Ashcroft: 59%
Yinka Faleti: 33%
Undecided: 8%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Ambitious Republicans
I asked, “Which of these future Republican scenarios is most likely…” 25 replies.
RESULTS
1. Governor Jay Ashcroft…. 32%
2. Senator Eric Greitens… 4%
3. Congressman Elijah Haahr… 8%
4. Governor Mike Kehoe… 32%
5. Senator Eric Schmitt… 24%
Sample Comments
· With Blunt likely running for re-election, Governor Kehoe 2024 seems like the most likely time for any of these scenarios to happen.
· This was a fun one, but definitely one of the tougher questions you've posed. There are scenarios where each of these could have an opportunity to play out.
· Some of those other things seem possible as well, like a congressman Haahr and a Senator Schmitt. But Governor Kehoe just sort of seems like an inevitability at this point.
· You can’t beat Ashcroft in a Republican primary. Least likely is Sen. Greitens. Everyone needs to chill.
· [Haahr has] been a leader on tax cuts and pro-life legislation - 2 biggies. Doesn't seem to have many enemies. Unusual to see a legislative leader who both gets things done and does it without creating major intra-party rival antagonists.
Who Won the Week
Nicole Galloway – Though she can’t match Governor Mike Parson’s PAC money machine, outraising his candidate committee by $200,000 sends the message that her campaign is in fighting shape.
Missouri Dems – A slowing economy, and a potential unraveling from the White House mean that the long-shot scenarios which could change Dems’ fortunes in 2020 have become a little more realistic.
Gina Walsh – Promoted to “the highest position help by a woman in the Insulators Union.
Organized labor – Word is that mega-donor David Humphreys is passing on any right to work efforts this cycle.
Find downloadable version here.
$5K+Contributions
Missourians for Healthcare - $20,000 from SEIU Healthcare.
Missourians for Healthcare - $42,198 from The Fairness Project.
Missourians for Healthcare - $11,239 from Missouri Organizing and Voter Engagement Collaborative.
American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $5,896 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.
Uniting Missouri PAC - $6,000 from Brian and Barbara Satterthwaite.