MOScout Daily Update: Galloway's Huge Quarter - Baker Jumps into Senate 19 - The Parson Economy - Kruck's Tobacco Report and more....

Galloway’s Huge Quarter

Auditor Nicole Galloway pre-filed her October quarter, demolishing expectations with $543,150 raised.  This far exceeded Governor Mike Parson’s pre-announced $316K haul.

The pro-Galloway PAC, Keep Government Accountable, had a strong quarter also.  It raised $517,500 in the last three months. However, this trailed what Parson’s PAC, Uniting Missouri, which is said to have raised three times that: $1.5 million.

What It Means

·         Team Galloway served notice that they are capable of mounting a fierce fundraising operation.

·         Parson will have a financial advantage, but Galloway will have enough resources to get her message out.

·         Reminder: in the end, all this money may have limited impact if everything get washed out in a Trump referendum election cycle.

Baker in Senate 19

Former State Representative Judy Baker officially jumped into the Senate 19 race.  This had been rumored for a while.

The press release: "We need to invest in Missouri's people. For too long we have been represented by politicians who work for those with means to influence their own interests over the interests of us all. As your State Senator, I know we can do better and return the focus of our legislature to supporting education, good health, and the financial well-being of the people," Baker said….

What It Means

·         Baker joins Michela Skelton in a Democratic primary that one MOScouter previously described as Boone County Dems old school (Baker) versus new upstarts (Skelton).

·         One lobbyist while viewing it as a “tough seat” for Republicans, dismisses the Dems’ chances, “Baker and Skelton are a combined 0-5 over their last 5 election attempts… no ability to raise month…”

And

·         The Republican incumbent, Sen. Caleb Rowden, is vulnerable he gets tied to Trump.

·         MOScout/Remington polling last month (see it here.) showed Trump’s approval in the district underwater (45% approve, 52% disapprove), yet Rowden led both Democratic candidates (50-44 over Skelton, and 49-45 over Baker).

MNEA IPs Costs

Looking at the initiative petitions filed by MNEA, the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education calculates that the “Foundation Formula” would need $767 million more in funding “if all children ages 3 to 5 were enrolled in a full-time pre-kindergarten program.”

Using FY 2019 K-12 enrollment of 880,025, adding two more grade level cohorts could result in an additional 135,388 students to be included in the Foundation Formula. Using an average attendance percentage of 94% this would result in an Average Daily Attendance (ADA) of 127,265 if all children ages 3 to 5 were enrolled in a full-time pre-kindergarten program. This 127,265 less the 6,872 pre-kindergarten ADA used in the FY 2021 budget projections results in 120,393 additional ADA to be included in the Foundation Formula payment. This could result in up to $767,505,375 additional dollars to be required to be paid out through the Foundation Formula.

And

“Officials from Wellsville-Middletown R-1 School District… are also concerned that this may lead to a strong push to consolidate small schools that would be very detrimental to the wellbeing of many of the small rural communities…”

I’m not sure what in the petition hints at consolidation, but it’s a reminder how that fear concerns rural Missouri.

The Parson Economy

Steele Shippy on Twitter: “The Parson economy is bringing people from all over the country to Missouri to start businesses, raise their children and live the American Dream.”

One reader wonders if this isn’t a “risky” message by Parson campaign manager in light of a slowing economy being forecasted for 2020…

Kruck’s Tobacco Report

Missouri Budget expert Thomas Kruckemeyer has started a “Tobacco Report.”  See it here.  He takes issue with the state’s low cigarette tax.

“2019 marks the 55th year since a definitive link was established by the U.S. Surgeon General between cigarette smoking and lung cancer. While the Federal and many state governments have taken strong actions to fight tobacco induced death/disease, in recent times, the Missouri state government has ‘distinguished’ itself by doing almost nothing to protect its citizens from Tobacco-induced disease and death. Despite having one of the nation’s highest cigarette smoking rates along with high rates of tobacco induced death, nearly every key Missouri political leader has responded to this crisis by raking in tobacco interests campaign contributions and keeping the Missouri cigarette tax the lowest in the nation. It is a disgraceful situation…”

$5K+ Contributions

Majority Forward - $6,000 from Cigna Holding Company.

Majority Forward - $6,000 from Charter Communications.

Lobbyists Registrations

Nancy Giddens and Shannon Cooper added AIDS Resource Center of Wisconsin.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jamala Rogers, and Jay Hardenbrook.

Saturday: Reps. Jason Chipman and Rick Francis, Charles Schlottach, Bridget Halquist, Mavis Busiek, Jeff Mazur, and Alexandria Cypert.

Sunday: Larry Pleus, Linda Black, and John Mayfield.