MOScout Weekender: O'Laughlin on MNEA IPs - Senate Bits - Poll on Impeachment - HI - WWTW and more....

O’Laughlin on MNEA’s IPs

Sen. Cindy O’Laughlin, in her latest capitol report, critiques the initiative petitions submitted by the Missouri NEA.  See it here.

·         First, NEA’s effort states that the General Assembly must “adequately and equitably fund free and public schools.” This sets the table for a lawsuit similar to what happened in Kansas where the state’s Supreme Court, not the legislature, determined how much the state should spend on students…

·         Second, the initiative petition guarantees that at least 25% of the state’s funds be spent on education. This sets a Constitutional mandate that public education receive a certain level funding, regardless of other budget priorities like paying down debt, or building roads. Make no mistake, this will end up raising taxes on Missouri’s families and businesses.

·         Third, several of the proposals state that Missouri’s K-12 schools can set up daycare education at the cost of Missouri’s taxpayers. This puts our public schools in direct competition with the stay-at-home moms, daycare businesses, and churches that are currently providing daycare.

·         Finally, the teacher union has included language in every proposal that states that no state funding can ever go to alternative forms of education. Alternative schools exist in Kansas City and St. Louis as a refuge for families who are in failing school districts…

Senate Race Bits

·         In Senate 3, tipster says that “Rep. Mike Henderson is getting out of the senate race and running for re-election…”  We’ll see if anyone else jumps in, or if Kent Scism takes the seat by acclamation.

·         In Senate 27, Rep. Holly Rehder had a blow-out Shrimp Boil event with special guest Madison Gesiotto.  She’s a co-chair of Trump’s National Women’s Coalition.  And she gave Rehder a little love on Twitter.  See it here.

MOScout Poll: Impeachment

The MOScout Weekly Poll looked at impeachment this week.  Survey conducted October 2 through October 3, 2019. 1,687 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-2.4%. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.

See the results here.

Q1: Do you support impeaching President Donald Trump?

Yes: 42%

No: 54%

Not sure: 4%

Q2: How much have you seen, read or heard about Congress starting an impeachment inquiry into President Donald Trump?

A lot: 75% [GO TO Q3]

Just some: 18% [GO TO Q3]

Not much: 7% [GO TO Q4]

Q3: Thinking about what you’ve seen, read or heard about Congress starting an impeachment inquiry, do you think President Trump’s actions were proper, not proper but legal or illegal?

Proper: 44%

Not proper but legal: 17%

Illegal: 35%

Not sure: 4%

Q4: Do you think Donald Trump deserves to be impeached, does not deserve to be impeached, or is it too soon to say?

Deserves to be impeached: 39%

Does not deserve to be impeached: 53%

It’s too soon to say: 6%

Not sure: 2%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Trump Impact

I asked a long-term question of the lobbying corps this week… “What will the impact of the Trump era be on Missouri politics?”

RESULTS

1. Elevation of populism over conservatism in GOP platform…. 47.4%

2. Greater mistrust in mainstream media…. 10.5%

3. Solidifying working-class whites for the Republican Party…. 15.8%

4. Swinging suburbs toward Democrats…. 15.8%

5. Something else…. 10.5%

Sample Comments

·         I think all four of your options are the right answer--they are not mutually exclusive.

·         It may not be this cycle, but by the end of Trumps second term, there’s a real chance that the suburbs are gone for a long time.

·         It seems to me we’re in unprecedented territory and I’m not sure I could offer up any accurate idea of where we go from here…

·         Trump has done more to incite distrust in mainstream media than anyone in modern history.

Who Won the Week

The Hustle Edition….

Eddy Justice – Hitting his 250th campaign contribution, including “donations from donors representing every county in the district.”

Josh Hawley – Clogging my in-box with fundraising blasts ahead of his upcoming re-election campaign… in 2024.

Elad Gross – Calculating that his campaign has “participated in more than 220 meetings in Missouri in the past 10 months and have traveled over 25,600 miles - more than the circumference of Earth…”

Deb Lavender – Putting the Republican Senate 15 district in play this cycle as she works it like she worked her House races – tirelessly.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+Contributions

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $16,092 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Supporters of Health and Research Treatments - $39,100 from John McDonnell.

Supporters of Health and Research Treatments - $17,900 from John McDonnell.