MOScout Daily Update: Hawley as Future of GOP? - Page Promoted - Otto for Commish - and more....
Hawley and The Future of the GOP?
I found last week’s MOScout/Remington poll fascinating. See it here. I asked questions about various new industries. Across the board, Missourians were skeptical and longed for more government oversight and regulation.
One reader shook his head at the overreaction of folks. Noting the poll showed 77% of Missourians think the e-cigarette industry “needs more government oversight and regulation,” and 72% are mostly “concerned about the harmful consequences” of autonomous cars, he blamed “mainstream media and politicians whipping up populist fervor… Tobacco has killed hundreds of thousands or millions? Less than 20 vaping deaths and it’s an epidemic and requires government take over? 90 people die EVERY DAY in cars driven by humans. There have been like 6 AV deaths TOTAL and it’s end of times!..”
According to the crosstabs, there are as many Republicans itching for the heavy hand of government intervention, as there are Democrats and Independents.
Trump’s No Reagan
This is different GOP than the one from my childhood. President Ronald Reagan championed free markets and thought “government is not the solution to our problem. Government is the problem.”
But that’s not the reigning spirit these days. When I asked lobbyists a month ago what they thought the impact of the Trump era would be on Missouri politics, a plurality (47%) chose “elevation of populism over conservatism in GOP platform.”
And in fact, President Donald Trump doesn’t display many “laissez faire” impulses. His America First agenda involves mostly anti-free market policies: use bully pulpit to tell companies where to build factories and invest; implement massive tariffs obstructing the free flow of goods across borders; and reduce immigration regardless of domestic demand for labor.
Hawley as Trump’s Heir
Reading a recent article in The Atlantic (see it here), they argued that Senator Josh Hawley was Trumpism without Trump. Delete Trump’s habit of personal insults, and his erratic policy-by-gut, and you have a lot of populism.
From The Atlantic article: By Hawley’s own account, some conservatives on Capitol Hill have spent the past three years with their eyes tightly shut, waiting for the Trump era to pass and everything to return to normal. “That’s not going to happen,” he told me in an interview this week. If the Republican Party returns to its pre-Trump ideological defaults—standing up for big business over the middle class, prioritizing free-market principles over social issues—“we’re not going to be a majority party, ever,” he said… Trump began the work of redirecting the GOP by building a working-class coalition, Hawley argues. In his view, Trump’s bombastic style and penchant for chaos bear no consequence for the new brand of conservatism Hawley envisions… While many Republicans have tried to sell themselves as populists, Hawley has adopted unusual language for talking about his economic views. He is totally comfortable citing statistics popular on the progressive left: the fact that 70 percent of American wealth is held by the top 10 percent of households, according to the Federal Reserve, or that working-class wages have stagnated compared with the rapid wage growth among top earners…
And
In this context Hawley’s crusade against the tech giants makes a lot of sense. And – according to last week’s poll – resonates with Missourians.
Q2: When you think about tech giants like Facebook and Google, do you think that industry needs more government oversight and regulation OR needs less government oversight and regulation?
Needs more government oversight and regulation: 65%
Needs less government oversight and regulation: 25%
Fine the way it is: 10%
Otto for Commish
News Tribune reports that “Harry Otto announced his candidacy Friday for Cole County Western District commissioner. He will run as a Republican.”
Otto served as Tom Schweich’s deputy state auditor, and then served in various capacities around the capitol before his retirement.
Page Promoted
The press release: Christine Page, director of Government Affairs for Missouri American Water, is overseeing the External Affairs team, effective Nov. 18. This expanded role will focus on creating strategic external messaging to support government and regulatory affairs, business development and community relationships… Christine has been in the Government Affairs director role at Missouri American Water since 2014. Prior to that, she worked at the St. Louis Regional Chamber, both as director of Government Affairs and as project manager, public policy. Christine has a Master of Professional Studies in political management from George Washington University and a bachelor’s degree in political science from the University of Missouri - Columbia….
State Budgets: Now or Never?
Bloomberg News reports that “states are increasing their spending at the fastest pace since the end of the Great Recession.” See it here.
Their budgets swelled by 5.9% in the 2019 fiscal year to about $2.1 trillion, the biggest annual increase since the recession ended in 2009, according to a report Thursday by the National Association of State Budget Officers. That’s up from a 3.7% pace in the year before as state officials pumped more money into transportation projects, pensions and reserves that will help them weather the next economic rout…
The jump in spending was spurred by “strong gains” in tax collections over the past two years, the budget officers group said. Eighteen states increased transportation spending by at least 10% in the 2019 year, chipping away at a backlog of deferred maintenance that the Volcker Alliance estimates to stand at $873 billion….
The possibility of another recession and uncertainty cast by the 2020 presidential election may spur states to continue stepping up their spending on transportation projects early next year in case the outlook changes, said Karel Citroen, head of municipal research at Conning, which manages about $6.8 billion in municipal bonds. “This is their now or never moment,” Citroen said. “This is going to be the final opportunity to take care of their infrastructure needs.“
Bloomberg Coming to MO TV
Mike Bloomberg is set to enter the Democratic presidential primary with an initial $19 million TV ad buy. According to this breakdown, Missouri will see $369K of it on their airwaves.
New Committees
No MO Flooding was formed. It’s a PAC. Its treasurer is Heather Edwards.
Lobbyists Registrations
Sherry Doctorian added CMOY LLC.
$5K+ Contributions
Majority Forward - $30,000 from Schupp for Senate.
Birthdays
Happy birthday to Joe Lakin, Willis Jones, and Bill Deeken.
MOScout Schedule
Short week ahead. I’ll put out morning emails on Monday, Tuesday and Wedensday, but then I’m off Thanksgiving and Friday with no weekend edition planned.