MOScout Weekender: Poll Shows Page with Lead - Hallway on 2020 Races - Who Won the Week and more...
If, Then…
From 538… “In the suburbs southwest of St. Louis, Democrats flipped Missouri House District 99 in a special election. The district had a FiveThirtyEight partisan lean of R+11, and the Democratic candidate won by 8 points, making for a dramatic 19-point margin swing. If the same thing happens in Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, which covers Missouri House District 99, it would be enough to flip the seat from red to blue (the 2nd District’s FiveThirtyEight partisan lean is R+16).”
MOScout/Remington Poll: Page Leads STL County Exec Race
Survey conducted November 6 through November 7, 2019. 612 likely 2020 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4% with a 95% level of confidence. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout. See the full results here.
Q1: Do you think St. Louis County is headed in the right direction or is it going off on the wrong track?
Right direction: 41%
Wrong track: 26%
Undecided: 33%
Q2: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for County Executive are Sam Page and Jake Zimmerman. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Sam Page: 33%
Jake Zimmerman: 19%
Undecided: 48%
Q3: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for County Executive are Sam Page, Jake Zimmerman and Mark Mantovani. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Sam Page: 26%
Jake Zimmerman: 17%
Mark Mantovani: 21%
Undecided: 36%
Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for County Executive are Sam Page, Jake Zimmerman, Mark Mantovani and Maria Chappelle-Nadal. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Sam Page: 24%
Jake Zimmerman: 14%
Mark Mantovani: 18%
Maria Chappelle-Nadal: 11%
Undecided: 33%
Q5: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for County Executive are Sam Page, Jake Zimmerman, Mark Mantovani and Brian Williams. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?
Sam Page: 25%
Jake Zimmerman: 15%
Mark Mantovani: 14%
Brian Williams: 7%
Undecided: 39%
MOScout’s Hallway Index: Vulnerable Incumbents?
I asked: “Which statewide elected is most vulnerable in 2020?” 24 replies… I asked the same question last spring (April 2019), the results from that are in parenthesis.
RESULTS
1. Governor Mike Parson…. 33.3% (25.9%)
2. Lieutenant Governor Mike Kehoe… 4.1% (3.7%)
3. Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft… 0% (7.4%)
4. State Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick… 45.9% (57.1%)
5. Attorney General Eric Schmitt… 12.5% (25.9%)
Sample Comments
· Only because “None” wasn’t an option.
· [Fitzpatrick because…] He’s still himself. Which is smart but not charismatic nor good on the trail. And he is completely beholden to the tide of the top of the ticket.
· Not many are vulnerable. But my answer has changed to Parson, given the mood of the country yesterday. If enough things continue to go wrong for him, Nicole may give him a run for his (and his super donors’) money.
· Chose the Gov solely because Nicole is the only real human being running on the Dem side. However, he’s going to beat her by 9.
· I believe all the down ballot statewides are safe. All the focus will be at the one leading the ticket. Still, Parson wins.
· Really none of them are I chose Parson because he is the only one with a real opponent.
· Same answer as before, nothing has really changed since then. The races may be closer but still don't see major upsets at the top of the ticket. Fitzpatrick is the least well-known and has the smallest war chest.
· I picked Parson only because you didn’t give me a “none of the above” option and he’s the top of the ticket.
· [Fitzpatrick because…] Name ID
· 6. None of the above?
· [Parson is] the only one with a legitimate candidate running against him right now and he’s the one with likely the biggest opposition research file.
Who Won the Week
Missouri Democrats – It’s been years, but finally… the House 99 special election offers a glimmer of hope….
Nicole Galloway – The special elections gave her campaign the best news they could hope for. She’s the anti-Trump. And if the suburbs have soured on the president, it gives her a roadmap quite distinct from the Nixon/Koster/Kander path. It’s no longer win the cities big and keep the rural areas from being blowouts. Maybe now, it’s win the cities and suburbs big, and don’t even play for rural MO.
Scott Fitzpatrick – Labeled “most vulnerable” by the lobbying corps, Fitz hosted a very successful campaign kickoff with 425+ people and the entire statewide GOP slate in attendance to support him. He’s doing what he needs to do.
Ron Calzone – The capitol denizen hallwayers love to hate wins big at 8th Circuit Court of Appeals. Just glad I waited before ordering a batch of “Free Ron Calzone” t-shirts.
Sam Page – Latest MOScout/Remington poll starts Page with a lead the various primary scenarios.
Find a downloadable version here.
Lobbyists Registration
Gamble and Schlemeier added Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company.
Jay Scheinman added Square Inc.
$5K+Contributions
Missourians for Healthcare - $73,344 from Missouri Jobs with Justice Voter Action.
MO Drive Fund - $55,000 from Drive Committee.
Missourians for Healthcare - $19,795 from The Fairness Project.
Wood for Commissioner - $10,000 from Dagnar Wood.