MOScout Daily Update: Polling on Parson, Trump - Schatz' Anti-CLEAN - Next Week Senate Fireworks and more...

Driving the Weekend

This weekend Republican will meet at Westport in the far St. Louis suburbs for their annual Lincoln Days celebration.  Former Governor Matt Blunt is coming in to speak at the festivities.

Ahead of the big hoo-ha, Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft concluded his investigation of US Senator Josh Hawley, finding that everything was kosher in his office.  See the Kansas City Star’s story here.

And

This polling memo from American Viewpoint was circulating showing strong numbers for Governor Mike Parson.

Interviews were conducted February 12-14, 2019. The margin of error for the entire sample

is +/- 3.5%... Approximately 42% of interviews were conducted with a cell phone…

Governor Parson has very strong job approval ratings both overall and with key swing voters.

·         57% of voters approve of the job Governor Parson is doing, with only 17% disapproving. Not only does he enjoy nearly universal approval among Republicans (75%-5%), but also with Independents who decide elections in Missouri (58%-15%).

·         President Trump’s job approval ratings in Missouri remain stronger than they are nationally, but well below Governor Parson’s with several important voting blocs. President Trump’s job approval rating in Missouri is 53%-46% overall and is stellar with Republicans (94%-6%). However, Governor Parson’s job approval rating among college educated women (58%-22%) is considerably stronger than the President’s (42%-57%). Similarly, President Trump’s job approval with Independent women (44%-53%) is well below the Governor’s (55%-14%).

·         The Governor’s early successes should help Republican legislative candidates across the state, as he has improved the overall mood in terms of the direction Missouri is headed. A majority of voters now believe that things in Missouri are going in the right direction (50%), with 38% believing things are off on the wrong track. This is a significant improvement from last May during former Governor Greitens’ tenure, when wrong track sentiment had reached 51%.

 

Senate Fireworks Next Week?

Floor Leader Caleb Rowden said he expects to see some school choice bills hit the Senate floor next week, and after that the governor’s Fast-Track proposal would be revisited.

These two issues will heighten the rift between the Senate Conservative Caucus and Southeast duo of Sens. Gary Romine and Doug Libla.

As if to preview next week’s potential tussle, Romine and Libla held a brief inquiry talking about the ill-effects of replacing income taxes with other taxes.  And Sens. Bill Eigel and Andrew Koenig followed to reiterate their desire to continue slicing the state’s income tax.

We’ll see if the two camps can come to some accommodation, or if they’ll create stalemates on a variety of issues this session.

 

Schatz’ Anti-CLEAN

The watchtowers are fully staffed as CLEAN Missouri supporters remain on the look-out for an expected redistricting process revision coming out of the Republican legislature.

Filed yesterday (the last day to file bills) was SJR 29.  Its sponsor is Pro Tem Dave Schatz, signaling that this is potentially THE vehicle for the anti-CLEAN effort.

This version is very simple.  It would swap out the $5 lobbyist gift limit, replacing it with a total ban.  This is the “ballot candy” that will be popular with voters.

And it would re-order the criteria by which the district lines are drawn.  CLEAN prioritized “fairness” and “competitiveness.”  This SJR would put contiguousness and compactness ahead of those characteristics.

Why It Matters

This is likely a “go to the mattresses” issues for Senate Dems.  It’s a filibuster-PQ timebomb.  In other words you want to get your bills passed before this thing goes off…

 

Shawan Drops $100K into Committee

In the large contributions (below) Rep. Jeff Shawan made a $100,000 contribution to his candidate committee.  One tipster says this is a down payment on a likely Senate 25 bid. 

The freshman state representative hasn’t amended his campaign committee yet, and this looks to be part of a pre-election cycle posturing as potential candidates try to dissuade others from making the race.

Southeast power-broker Eddy Justice has reportedly enlisted Axiom for his Senate 25 campaign, and there’s some speculation that Ag-friendly Jason Bean, son of former Rep. Otto Bean is considering the race.

We’re about 11 months away from filing opening…

 

Corlew to Evans Dixon

Former Rep. Kevin Corlew on Facebook… Since 2007, I've practiced law at Shook, Hardy & Bacon L.L.P. I worked alongside excellent attorneys and am grateful for the experience. Today I begin a new chapter at the law firm of Evans & Dixon, LLC. I will work out of the KC office. I am looking forward to developing a multi-faceted practice in which I'll counsel clients in the areas of transportation, business, infrastructure, and election law.

 

Finally

Governor Mike Parson appointed William L. (Barry) Orscheln to the Conservation Commission.

 

New Committees

Dwayne Williams formed a candidate committee (Williams For KC) to run for Kansas City Council Person District 5 as a Democrat.

                       

$5K+ Contributions

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $58,364 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Lyda Krewson for Mayor - $9,000 from Pearl Capital Management LLC.

Friends of Jeff Shawan - $100,000 from Jeff Shawan.

 

Lobbyists Registrations

Jeffrey Brooks added Saint Louis Zoo Association, NRDC Action Fund Inc., and Education Direction.

James Harris added Kings Garden Midwest LLC.

Bryan Roosa added General Motors.

Jewell Patek added Missouri Alliance For Freedom, Gaming Partners International, NIC Inc.; and deleted Missouri Republican Party.   

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Harry Gallagher.

Saturday: William “Buddy” Hardin, Greg Harrison, Rob Monsees, and Titus Bond.

Sunday: Heath Clarkston, Maria Walden, Brooke Foster, and John Hancock.