MOScout Weekender: February Refunds Drop 16% - Weekly Poll Shows Parson Leads Dems - Hallway Worries About GOP Factions - WWTW and more...

February Revenue Numbers

The February numbers show state revenue from individual income tax flat with February 2018.  But the amount that the state expended on refunds dropped 16%.  That, together with strong sales tax growth of 10.5%, brought the net revenue for the month to a positive 17.9% compared to a year ago.

A lot of eyes are watching that refund number. The anticipation is that the tax cut snafu is depressing the refunds that Missourians will receive.  Over the next two months, lower refunds are the key to bringing the net revenue balance back to even – and preventing the state from using its cash surplus.

At the end of February, state revenues were running $296 million behind 2018’s fiscal year-to-date.  In other words, if this scenario plays out, that’s the amount of refunds that people might expect, but won’t see.


Elad Gets His Man

Elad Gross, who has filed suit to expose the dark money and bring transparency to Missouri politics, tweets “We got him. After more than two weeks of evading service, Senator Josh Hawley was personally served with the subpoena at CPAC.”

Gross has announced he’ll be running for attorney general as a Democrat in 2020.

 

MOScout Poll: Parson Leads Possible Dems

The MOScout Weekly Poll looks at 2020 match-ups, plus PDMP.

Survey conducted February 27 through February 27, 2019. 893 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Margin of Error is +/-3.4%.   See the full results here.

Q: Possible candidates in the 2018 General Election for Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mike Parson: 51%

Nicole Galloway: 40%

Undecided: 9%

Q: Possible candidates in the 2018 General Election for Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Scott Sifton. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mike Parson: 52%

Scott Sifton: 32%

Undecided: 16%

Q: Possible candidates in the 2018 General Election for Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Jason Kander. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mike Parson: 51%

Jason Kander: 36%

Undecided: 13%

Q: This bill establishes the "Narcotics Control Act." The Department of Health and Senior Services will establish a program for monitoring the prescribing and dispensing controlled substances. The department may provide information collected to dispensers, a professional licensing board, law enforcement, or MO HealthNet.  The department may also provide data for statistical, research, or educational purposes after removing identifying information. The information cannot be used to prevent an individual from owning a firearm. Do you approve or disapprove of the “Narcotics Control Act?”

Approve: 40%

Disapprove: 24%

Not sure: 36%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Greatest Threat to Successful Session?

This week, I revisited a question from before session, asking what the lobbying corps sees as the greatest threat to a successful session.  28 replies…

RESULTS

1. House-Senate in-fighting… 0%

2. Second Floor-Third Floor Infighting… 7.1%

3. Inexperienced Legislators… 3.5%

4. Redistricting Plan Blow-up… 3.5%

5. Republican factions in the Senate… 82.1%

6. Something else… 3.5%

Sample of Comments

·         [The anti-CLEAN] is the only issue this session that warrants a PQ. The timing of it and fallout from it could wreak havoc on the end of session. In this case, the collateral damage is acceptable to the Republicans.

·         While it’s early I also think you could see some factions develop in the House especially with so many new members. That may be a bigger threat to next session.

 

Who Won the Week?

Scott Fitzpatrick and Robert Ross – The no-nonsense treasurer and the unwavering committee chair tag-teamed the director of the Department of Revenue into eating his excuse.

Elad Gross – The relentless pursuer of dark money schemes gets his man, US Senator Josh Hawley served with a subpoena after addressing CPAC.

Elijah Haahr – While the second floor remains unmoved from its preoccupation with workforce and infrastructure, Haahr detours the House and passes pro-life legislation to a cheering conservative base.

Ed Emery and Rich AuBuchon – The senator and the lobbyist should take a victory lap for finally advancing the “joinder” tort reform that eluded other legislative sessions.

Caleb Rowden – The toughest challenges are probably still ahead, but the young floor leader notched another win with the go-all-night, find-a-compromise path for tort reform.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Jorgen Schlemeier, Sarah Schlemeier, Jeffrey Brooks, Cynthia Gamble, Kathryn Gamble, William Gamble, Sarah Topp, Olivia Wilson and David Jackson added Air Evac, and Concordance Academy of Leadership.

Jeffrey Brooks added Missouri Motion Media Association.

Olivia Wilson, Sarah Schlemeier, David Jackson, Cynthia Gamble, Kathryn Gamble and William Gamble added City of St. Charles and City of Chesterfield.

Jorgen Schlemeier, Sarah Schlemeier, and Sarah Topp added Education Direction.

Zach Brunnert added Filtered Inc.

Michael Grote added Gateway Foundation, Missouri Association of Rural Health Clinics, and Page Minder.           

Scott Richard Jensen added American Federation For Children.     

David Sweeney and Sonette Magnus added Justice Grown; and deleted Bird Rides Inc.

David Sweeney deleted Axon.

 

$5K+ Contributions

PT-PAC of Missouri - $7,500 from Central Missouri Physical Therapy.

Midwest Region Laborers' Political League Education Fund - $6,415 from Laborers Supplemental Dues Fund.