MOScout Weekender: Start of Senate 27 Primary? - Rothman Passes - WWTW - MOScout Poll - Hallway on PQ and more...

The Start of Senate 27 Primary?

Southeast Missourian reports that a “not-for-profit corporation based in Springfield, Missouri, is funding digital attack ads against state Rep. Kathy Swan, accusing her of opposing ‘Trump’s agenda’ and being ‘just like (former U.S. Sen.) Claire McCaskill.’ The ads state Swan ‘doesn’t know the needs of the Bootheel.’… The ads list the Show Me Success Missouri corporation as paying for the political attack. Show Me Success Missouri was established Feb. 28, according to incorporation documents filed with the Missouri Secretary of State’s Office. George Husted of Springfield is listed as the incorporator…. [Rep. Holly] Rehder said Friday she is not involved in the ad campaign against Swan. She said she has no affiliation with Show Me Success Missouri and has no involvement with the ads attacking Swan….  According to online records, Husted is an accounting associate with HenryAlan LLC. HenryAlan is a political consulting firm that provides financial expertise to candidates and campaigns.  In a news release issued last year, Axiom Strategies, which touts itself as the largest Republican political consulting firm in the nation, reported it had acquired HenryAlan. Rehder said she hired Axiom Strategies to aid her in past election campaigns….”

 

Roaring Revenues?

Once more with feeling: these numbers can be volatile.  But…. as of close of business Thursday, state tax receipts were $210 million ahead of last year, up 2.80%.

This is washing like a wave of great relief over budget-makers in the capitol.

 

Rothman Passes

From Post-Dispatch: A St. Louis attorney who rose to become Missouri’s first Jewish lieutenant governor died Friday (April 26, 2019).  Kenneth Rothman, whose political career included serving as speaker of the House, was 83.  Mr. Rothman, a Democrat who retired from active law practice in 2012, served in the No. 2 position in state government from 1981 to 1985… In 1982, Mr. Rothman campaigned for an increase to the state’s gasoline tax, arguing an increase was vital to preventing disasters on state roadways. “The proposition would cost voters an average of $2 a month, and that’s the cheapest life insurance policy I think anyone could buy,” he said near an old Highway 141 bridge over the Meramec River in Valley Park in September that year….

 

MOScout Poll: Various Issues

The MOScout Weekly Poll conducted April 24 through April 25, 2019. 881 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.5%.  See the full results here.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Parson’s job performance as Governor?

Approve: 45%

Disapprove: 18%

Not sure: 37%

Q2: The state legislature is considering various bills which would legalize gambling on sports. Sports wagering would only be allowed in casinos, or over the internet, to persons physically located in the state. Do you approve or disapprove?

Approve: 34%

Disapprove: 51%

Not sure: 15%

Q3: Senate Bill 39 would allow the concealed carry of firearms on public transportation systems. Do you approve or disapprove?

Approve: 40%

Disapprove: 52%

Not sure: 8%

Q4: Currently, there is a 17 cent per gallon tax on motor fuel. Senate Bill 430 would increase the tax by 2 cents a year for three years. Once fully phased in, the rate of tax will be 23 cents per gallon and would be adjusted annually for inflation. Do you approve or disapprove?

Approve: 32%

Disapprove: 59%

Not sure: 9%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: PQ

This week, I asked: “How likely is it that Senate Republicans use the PQ this session?”  72% of my Hallwayers think it’s very likely or somewhat likely.  With many comments pointing to abortion as the most likely cause.  26 replies…

RESULTS

1. Very likely… 42.3%

2. Somewhat likely… 30.7%

3. Somewhat unlikely… 11.5%

4. Very unlikely… 15.4%

 Sample of Comments

·         Aside from abortion, I don’t see a bill that they all agree on. And even if they did, could they agree on which Senator “gets the win”? It might happen, but I’m thinking it’s slightly unlikely.

·         I think Missouri could on some pro-life issues like the “heartbeat bill” which is passing in various other states.

·         Nothing like an abortion bill to bring the Republican caucus together.

·         Unfortunate, but the PQ is now the norm.

·         Republicans and Democrats alike are both anticipating more than 1 PQ motion. Whoever is on the Dias must be prepared.

·         They can’t get Cleaner MO or the abortion bill without it. My bet is that it’s only used for Cleaner MO.

·         I'd say unlikely because there are so many new people, and if leadership are using their heads, they wouldn't want new folks learning bad habits (especially so early on).

·         Dems are usually pretty good about working with the GOP to get concessions on a bill so it can move forward, but there are some issues (like abortion rights) that are seen as non-negotiable by both sides. Wouldn't be surprised to see the PQ used on such a bill.

 

Who Won the Week?

Mike Parson – When revenues were floundering and plenty of observers thought withholds would be the prudent course of action, the governor opted to wait and see.  Now revenues have returned and his next year’s budget looks in fine shape.

KCStar – Fearlessly working the stories.

Jerry Nolte – Nolte must be cheered by the entry of tough challengers for the two Clay County Commissioners who have formed an alliance to out-vote him for years.

Greg Razer – In the House super-minority, one of the few tools at your disposal is your voice.  Razer continues to use his.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

eMailbag on Gov’s Office Hiding Behind 1A

You don't get to assert someone else's constitutional rights to avoid following the law. Even if there is a first amendment issue, it's the people whose names were removed who would be able to claim the protection not the Governor.

 

eMailbag on Brunner Contra Plocher

Brunner should humble himself and run for state rep if he thinks it's so easy and wants to fight with a rep on social media.

 

Help Wanted

Pearson seeks Director, State and Strategic Client Relations - Central/Midwest US in Missouri.   “This position is home-based and is responsible for accounts in Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri and Wisconsin; therefore the incumbent will need to live in this region. Candidates must reside within a reasonable distance of an airport with regularly scheduled commercial airline service.  The Director, State and Strategic Client Relations will be a field leader and professional with autonomy to make decisions in the areas of client relations, government relations and state strategies in assigned states. This position will be assigned strategic client accounts as a single point of accountability, ensuring client expectations are met (academic, operations, financial), negotiating and renewing existing client contracts, and be the client’s advocate regarding client requests…  This is a non-management position and reports to the Vice President, State and Strategic Client Relations…”

See the ad here.

 

Lobbyist Registrations

Kristy Nelson added Epic Strategies.

 

$5K+ Contributions

MO Opportunity PAC - $10,000 from Hoberock Family Partnership, LP.

Midwest Region Laborers' Political League Education Fund - $5,729 from Laborers Supplemental Dues Fund.