MOScout Daily Update: Conservative Caucus 2021 - KC Mayoral Poll - Abortion Politics - Colona Makes Panel and more...

2021 Conservative Caucus

The birth of the Conservative Caucus provided a tectonic shift in the Senate this year.  Looking ahead, the caucus could shrink or grow.

It’s possible that the Republican “regulars” could lure a member away from the Conservative Caucus.  Their argument would be that the caucus produced little in the way of legislative achievements.  If Conservative Caucus members want to get things done, they might be better served forfeiting their affiliation with the group. 

On the other hand, the conservatives are eyeing the 2020 election cycle to see if they can enlarge their numbers to 7 or 8.  How that looks to me right now…

·         Senate 3 – Former Rep. Paul Fitzwater is considered the frontrunner.  He doesn’t fit the profile of a Conservative Caucus member.

·         Senate 15, 21, 23 – incumbent caucus members running for re-election.

·         Senate 25 – Eddy Justice may have a primary, but he’d be a prime candidate to join their caucus.

·         Senate 27 – I don’t imagine Rep. Kathy Swan, and obviously not Rep. Holly Rehder caucusing with the CC.

·         Senate 29 – David Cole is a mainstream PartyRepublican

·         Senate 31 – This primary is still murky.  Rep. Jack Bondon, and Donna Pfautsch are probably not joiners.

·         Senate 33 – I could see Rep. Robert Ross as a potential recruit for the conservatives.

And

Sen. Bill Eigel’s independent PAC, Believe In Life And Liberty - BILL PAC, will likely be a vehicle for Conservative Caucus supporters to aid those senators and help them build their voting bloc.  It has $174,649 on-hand.  Here are its donors – so far. 

·         Worldwide Technology’s David Steward, who was involved in this session’s push to revise the Title IX process - $75,000.

·         Rex Sinquefield, who’s long-time belief in school reform and lower income taxes are a near ideological fit with the Conservative Caucus - $75,000.

·         And surprisingly a smattering of trial attorney firms: Carey & Danis LLC ($4,000), Weitz & Luxenberg PC ($2,500), Onder Law ($4,500), Schlichter Bogard & Denton LLP ($4,000), Holland Law Firm LLC ($4,999), and Gori, Julian & Associates P.C. ($4,500).

 

Four Ways Things Could Go Off Track for Parson Next Session…

From one building denizen…

Parson had a great session but if one of about four things happen in the next 8 months, he might as well not bother coming to the building next year… 

·         If GM doesn't invest a billion dollars... most will believe he lied to get the rest of his items done so no one will believe him next year. 

·         If he using bonding for anything outside of federal funds for the I-70 bridge, he won't get a cent more for infrastructure. 

·         If Sen. Jason Holsman gets an appointment to the PSC after being the person who killed the Eminent Domain bill, he might have trouble with farmers in 2020. 

·         And if he turns LIHTC back on, he’s spoiling for a fight with House Floor Leader Rob Vescovo, who threw down on the issue.

 

KC Poll: No Much Movement Yet

Latest from Remington Research.  See the full poll here.

Survey conducted May 15 through May 16, 2019. 610 likely 2019 Municipal General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2019 Municipal General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.7%. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. (04/17) results in parentheses.

Q1: What is your opinion of Quinton Lucas?

Favorable: 53% (50%)

Unfavorable: 16% (14%)

No opinion: 31% (36%)

Q2: What is your opinion of Jolie Justus?

Favorable: 48% (47%)

Unfavorable: 25% (22%)

No opinion: 27% (31%)

Q3: The candidates in the June 18th General Election for Mayor of Kansas City are Quinton Lucas and Jolie Justus. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Quinton Lucas: 38% (38%)

Jolie Justus: 30% (31%)

Undecided: 32% (31%)

Q4: Do you think Kansas City needs to focus on development projects like a new airport, new downtown hotel and downtown housing development OR; do you think Kansas City needs to focus on neighborhood issues like crime, affordable housing and fixing roads and sidewalks?

Development projects: 14% (17%)

Neighborhood issues: 71% (69%)

Not sure: 15% (14%)

 

Henderson in Senate 3?

Although the twin goals of “education reform” – charter expansion and Educational Savings Accounts – failed to gain traction this session, Rep. Mike Henderson’s HB 604, School Turnaround Act, passed.

One hallway source says it’s a feather in Henderson’s cap: It obviously evolved into an omnibus education package that included changes to school start date, school transfer policies for unaccredited districts, Schatz’s hardship transfer bill, and the charter school’s lottery protocol language. Henderson showed a lot of leadership and his name has been thrown out as a possible replacement for Sen. Gary Romine (Senate 3) in 2020.

And

This was also a big win for David Jackson and Gamble and Schlemeier. Their client, Ed Direction, led the effort on the turnaround bill, managing to neutralize the unions and reformers alike. Between this and last year’s special session on computer science for their national client Code.org, they’ve have worked to pass two significant education packages in back to back years.

 

It’s Abortion Bans, Stupid?

New York Times (see it here) asks if Republicans are undercutting their best 2020 message (the economy).  They mention Alabama’s new abortion restrictions, but Missouri is a similar situation.

The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, companies are adding jobs and the gross domestic product grew by 3.2 percent in the first quarter, undercutting predictions of a coming recession. Yet for all that political upside, Republicans demonstrated repeatedly last week that they were not positioning themselves to wage the 2020 election over the strength of the economy…[I]n Alabama, the Republican governor signed a bill that would effectively ban abortion, the most recent and far-reaching of new state restrictions and a step toward a possible Supreme Court showdown over abortion rights. Such divisive and destabilizing stands — driven by Mr. Trump’s political impulses and by emboldened conservatives — could end up alienating swing voters and could help Democrats who might otherwise be on the defensive over the nation’s relative prosperity…

 

New Abortion Law Solidifies Parson Conservative Base

I was struck by this Kurt Erickson’s opening paragraph, and I think he gets it right: Governor Mike Parson signing the abortion “heartbeat” bill will put to rest any grumbling from the far right about him “not being conservative enough.”

Although the closing month of the legislative session was a rocky ride for the rookie governor, Parson emerged from the five-month legislative session with much of his agenda intact. His so-called “workforce development” push won support after he paired it with a package of subsidies for the General Motors truck and van plant in Wentzville. Lawmakers also delivered on their promise to further restrict abortion in the state, giving Parson some conservative bonafides after being attacked from the right for some of his policy proposals...

 

Colona Makes Panel

The Twenty-Second Circuit Judicial Commission announced the panel of three nominees to fill the associate circuit judge vacancy in St. Louis city created by the appointment of Judge Calea Stovall-Reid as circuit judge. Those nominated by the commission are: Steven J. Capizzi, Michael J. Colona, and Craig K. Higgins.

 

McCaskill Announcement

From Claire McCaskill’s twitter account on Friday: As I deal with my husband’s critical illness, I will go quiet for awhile. But at this moment let me share my feelings..more family, more friends, more music, less screens.

 

Help Wanted

Gephardt Institute for Civic and Community Engagement seeks Coordinator for Civic Engagement Programs. “The Coordinator for Civic Engagement Programs provides programmatic and administrative support to the Assistant Director for Civic Engagement Education. With a focus on the Civic Scholars Program and Goldman Fellows Program, the Coordinator supports recruitment, selection, special events, communications, fundraising activities, stewardship, assessment, and related efforts. The Coordinator also supports special projects related to civic engagement education, such as workshops and collaborative initiatives with campus and/or community partners.”  See the ad here.

 

Lobbyists Registrations

Salvatore Panettiere deleted Utility Associates Inc., Tactical Medical Solutions Inc., Missouri Pork Association, and Empower Missouri.

 

$5K+ Contributions

MO Opportunity PAC - $50,000 from August A Busch III.

Committee for KC Jobs - $10,000 from Burns McDonnell.

Committee for KC Jobs - $25,000 from Chipp Political Account.

 

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to Jim Guest, Justin Arnold, and Kyle Juvers.