MOScout Daily Update: Conservative Caucus Feedback - Senate 3 Feedback - Haahr's Last Session - Anti-Clean Implications and more....

Follow-Up on 2021 Conservative Caucus

Here’s some hallway feedback I got trying to imagine the Senate’s Conservative Caucus after next election…

·         I don't see Eddy Justice joining the CC. He's pragmatic and has been a civic leader on a number of fronts. He likes to accomplish things.

·         Rep. Robert Ross has a likely opponent in [Senate 33] in Van Kelly.  He would be a perfect candidate for the conservative caucus.

·         The dirty little secret of the conservative caucus leadership [as shown by contributions to BILL PAC]  is they are close with the trial attorneys. At some point it will come to a head and will be interesting to see where members like Eric Burlison and Cindy O'Laughlin fall when that happens.

Follow-Up On Henderson in Senate 3

After I wrote yesterday that Rep. Mike Henderson’s leadership on the “turnaround” education bill has folks talking up his future in Senate 3…

·         One lobbyist told me that Rep. Mike Henderson IS running in Senate 3, and “seems stronger than [Paul] Fitzwater to me.”

·         A second concurring that “Henderson has geographical advantage.”

But…

One savvy observer says “there will be others…”  Here’s a hint one offered: “Look for self-funder from Farmington area….”

Implications of Anti-Clean’s Failure

One of the unexpected twists of this session was the failure of Republicans to advance Anti-Clean.  They still can – and presumably will – pass it next session in time for the 2020 ballot.  What I’ve heard on this issue…

·         Dems acknowledge that it’s extremely likely that Republicans will pass it next session, but that was the case this session.  Mistakes and odd bounces can happen, and now the GOP has no room for error.

·         According to one source, Clean supporters behave like people who believe they will have plenty of resources to defend their proposal.  Anti-Clean backers wanted the extra year to fundraise for the epic battle – which will take place amid an election cycle with five statewides on the ballot.

·         However, Clean supporters won’t be able to counterpunch as effectively now.  There was talk of putting forth another Clean initiative (“Cleanest”) to compete with Anti-Clean on the ballot.  That’s a tougher scheme to pull off now.

·         Finally, this injects another cloud over next session.  Anti-Clean is clearly PQ material.  It will be one more hazard (Conservative Caucus, House leadership tensions, Parson re-election) lobbyists must navigate in the obstacle course to pass bills.

Haahr’s Last Session

Speaker Elijah Haahr is staring down the final eighteen months of his term-limited House service. 

·         We’re entering the phase where the speaker’s power recedes and the speaker-designate becomes more and more the go-to person for lobbyists and other legislators.

·         Haahr put his shoulder into a couple issues, but wasn’t able to overcome the opposition, notably – education reform (the establishment coalition plus a very unfortunate accident), and Grain Belt eminent domain (Invenergy/MPUA).

·         As usual as rising rivers, Haahr and Floor Leader Rob Vescovo haven’t been air-tight on every issue, and temperamentally have different styles.

·         For example, Haahr also was supportive of re-starting LIHTC, but was stymied in part by Vescovo on that effort.

·         So where does Haahr put his energies in his final session?  I think we’ll see one final ramming charge at education reform.

Bits

·         Missouri Democrats put their 51-page for selecting delegates to the 2020 national convention online.  See it here.

·         State tax receipts have continued to hold steady this month.  As of close of business Friday they were running $168 million ahead of last year, or positive 2.03%.

Help Wanted

NARAL Pro-Choice Missouri seeks Political Intern. “Assist the Political/Field Organizer and the Political Action Committee in planning and executing independent expenditure campaigns to turn out pro-choice voters in targeted districts; Work with pro-choice candidates; Assist the Political Action Committee in raising funds; Assist with office responsibilities-data entry, web maintenance, etc….”  See the ad here.

Lobbyists Registrations

Eric Cowen added BofA Securities Inc.; and deleted Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Incorporated.

Brent Hemphill deleted US Term Limits, Farm Equipment Manufacturers Association Independent Colleges & Universities of Missouri, and Missouri Disaster Response System, Inc. Courtney Mertens added Mertens Ventures LLC.

Jack Todd deleted Trinity Industries Inc.

$5K+ Contributions

Civic Progress Action Committee - $13,000 from RGA Reinsurance Company.

Birthdays

Happy birthdays to MO McCullough and Jessica Pabst.