MOScout Weekender: Humphreys Files Suit - What's an Emergency? - WWTW - Final KC Poll - Hallway Index and more...

Developments in the Ongoing Abortion Battle

·         In addition to his $1 million contribution to the campaign committee for a referendum on HB 126, David Humphreys also filed suit against Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft yesterday. The initial hearing will be Tuesday June 11.  Humphreys’ lawyers are Lowell Pearson and Brad Ketcher.

·         Humphreys’ statement: “We are requesting immediate relief from the Cole County Circuit Court to allow our petition to proceed, which will let Missouri voters decide this monumental public policy issue (HB126). Our campaign began to ensure women and underage minors who are the victims of rape and incest are protected. This is a significant step forward in the fight to protect those who have already been victimized by rape or incest. We are committed to that goal.”

·         Auditor Nicole Galloway said she’d continue with her part of the process for the referendums despite Ashcroft’s action. "Auditor Galloway has consistently expressed a deep concern about efforts to stifle the voice of the people on ballot initiatives. She disagrees with this latest attempt to limit the power of Missourians to have their voices heard. Auditor Galloway is fighting to uphold citizens' constitutional rights to hold Jefferson City accountable through the referendum process."

·         One MOScouter’s assessment of whether the emergency clause really amounts to an emergency: The parental notification provision may apply too so few people that a court is unwilling to rule it is an emergency. DHSS' data says a little more than 100 minors have abortions in Missouri in a given year. The provision does not apply in all these cases because there are multiple exceptions.  The emergency clause made the bill effective three months ahead of the normal effective date. In that 3-month period you are talking about a handful of cases. The court may not think of that as an emergency but instead a device to limit the ability to do a referendum.

·         The lefty media is starting to dig into Dr. Randall Williams.  See Rachel Maddow’s bit here.

MOScout Poll: KC Mayoral

One last poll ahead of the Kansas City mayoral election on June 14.  See the full results here.

Survey conducted June 5 through June 6, 2019. 455 likely 2019 Municipal General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2019 Municipal General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.6%. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. (05/16) results in parentheses.

Q1: What is your opinion of Quinton Lucas?

Favorable: 54% (53%)

Unfavorable: 15% (16%)

No opinion: 31% (31%)

Q2: What is your opinion of Jolie Justus?

Favorable: 49% (48%)

Unfavorable: 26% (25%)

No opinion: 25% (27%)

Q3: The candidates in the June 18th General Election for Mayor of Kansas City are Quinton Lucas and Jolie Justus. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Quinton Lucas: 42% (38%)

Jolie Justus: 39% (30%)

Undecided: 19% (32%)

Q4: Do you think Kansas City needs to focus on development projects like a new airport, new downtown hotel and downtown housing development OR; do you think Kansas City needs to focus on neighborhood issues like crime, affordable housing and fixing roads and sidewalks?

Development projects: 14% (14%)

Neighborhood issues: 70% (71%)

Not sure: 16% (15%)

MOScout’s Hallway Index: How will Abortion Issue Play in 2020?

I asked my lobbyists focus group who they thought the abortion issue would play out in 2020.  “In terms of Missouri politics, who does the abortion debate help more in 2020?”  22 responses…

1. Republicans…. 9.1%

2. Democrats…. 72.7%

3. Will not have a big impact…. 13.6%

4. Not sure…. 4.5%

Selected Comments

·         Yawn. Different day, same story. Even though public sentiment is on their side, until Ds figure out how to capitalize on these issues, it favors Rs.

·         I chose "Democrats" because I want it to be Democrats and not because I am a Democrat, I am not. But the abortion laws passed reflect the views of a minority of voters. They won't save babies (women will go out of state or find illegal, unsafe means), they hurt our ability to attract young people to the state, which we need to support the lives in our state (i.e. healthcare workers, teachers, etc.), they waste taxpayer dollars in litigation and they cause unrest and distress. That said, GOP moderates never get too excited about anything so good chance it ends up not mattering.

·         I am not sure it changes the minds of voters, but I believe those who have the most to lose, always show up with more intensity than those who are only gaining - therefore I believe the mix of voter turnout is rebalanced in Dems favor - enough to win a seat or two in the legislature is the big question. Statewide races remain a challenge for democrats.

·         Based on voter turnout it seems D's have a much bigger upside. It's hard to imagine Republicans have as much opportunity given their voting propensity; whereas, Democrats consistently underperform voting patterns. If abortion and possibly Medicaid don't energize D voter turnout they should turn out the lights and lock the door.

Who Won the Week

Eric Burlison and Cindy O’Laughlin – Freshmen senators snag the chairmanship and chairwomanship of Senate’s interim committees.

Erin Brower – wins big promotion, she’s now Hallmark’s Government & Community Affairs Director. 

Jay Ashcroft – gets in the on the anti-abortion action.  And also he’s doing his job.  The court may decide that the emergency clause doesn’t meet the standard of an emergency, but that’s for the courts to decide, not the secretary of state.

Deb Lavender – On the same day she makes her announcement official, her primary opponent postpones his kick-off.

Shamed Dogan - Criminal justice reformer, and one of the few House members who has huge support from two of the biggest active donors in the state: Steward and Humphreys.

Tom Stillman – Probably tripled the value of the St. Louis Blues since buying the team in 2012.  And now one win away from winning the toughest trophy in all of sports.  LGB!

Find a downloadable version here.

Parson Bits

·         Governor Mike Parson will “speak about the importance of agriculture in Missouri and ceremonially sign SB 391 at the 16th Annual Cattleman's Steak Dinner… 6:30PM at the Sedalia State Fair Ground, Agriculture Building.”

·         Governor Parson appointed Madeline Orling Connolly as Circuit Judge for the 22nd Judicial Circuit, filling the vacancy created by the retirement of the Honorable Mark H. Neill.

Lobbyist Registrations

Matthew Dennis Alsager and Sam Licklider deleted Kingdom Principles Inc.

Mark Habbas added Eight Borders LLC, Demeter St Charles LLC, and The Peridot Tree LLC.

$5K+Contributions

Committee to Protect the Rights of Victims of Rape & Incest - $1,000,000 from David Humphreys.

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $5,601 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc. - $26,189 from Mark Ketchmark.

Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc. - $33,000 from Mark Ketchmark.

Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc. - $7,800 from Sherwood Smith.

Taxpayers Unlimited, Inc. - $44,000 from Mark Ketchmark.

KCFOP PAC - $15,000 from Herzog Contracting Corp.