MOScout Weekender: Parson Galloway Poll - Hallway on Gov's Race - Humphreys Contra Ashcroft - WWTW and more...

Driving the Day

Tonight, Missouri Democrats gather for their annual Truman Dinner in St. Louis.  “The dinner is expected to have over 400 Democrats in attendance to hear from speakers Senator Jamilah Nasheed, Representative Crystal Quade, and making her first speech since announcing her campaign for Governor, State Auditor Nicole Galloway…”

 

Humphreys Contra Ashcroft

Republican donor David Humphreys put out a statement yesterday ripping Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft

Jay Ashcroft’s deceptively stated “exception” for medical emergencies is no exception at all. Physicians will have to risk their reputations and their livelihoods – and face possible imprisonment – for performing any post-eight-week emergency medical procedure that results in termination of a pregnancy. Women and girls could be deemed criminals without ever intending to abort their pregnancies.  The complete lack of exceptions to protect female victims of rape and incest is another flagrant example of Jay Ashcroft’s misstatements on his ballot summary of legislation that is deeply flawed and likely unconstitutional…

But

What’s next for Humphreys?  His previously announced effort to put HB126 to a referendum appears to be on ice now.  Is this a call for a worthy Republican to give Ashcroft a primary challenge?  Is it a threat to walk away from state politics, even after his pro-business agenda has benefited recently from Republican rule in Jefferson City? 

 

MOScout Poll: Governor’s Race 2020

Survey conducted August 14 through August 15, 2019. 855 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Margin of Error is +/-3.3%.  See the full results here.

Q1: Do you think Missouri is heading in the right direction or going off on the wrong track?

Right direction: 47%

Wrong track: 38%

Not sure: 15%

Q2: What is your opinion of Mike Parson?

Favorable: 40%

Unfavorable: 28%

No opinion: 32%

Q3: What is your opinion of Nicole Galloway?

Favorable: 28%

Unfavorable: 18%

No opinion: 54%

Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mike Parson: 50%

Nicole Galloway: 39%

Undecided: 11%

Q5: What’s the most important issue facing the state of Missouri?

Reducing crime: 22%

Creating more jobs: 12%

Cutting taxes: 9%

Lowering healthcare costs: 22%

Improving education: 15%

Not Sure: 20%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Who will win the 2020 governor’s race?

The lobbying corps see Governor Mike Parson as the heavy favorite to win next November’s match-up. 25 responses…

1. Parson, heavy favorite… 72%

2. Parson, close call… 16%

3. Galloway, close call… 4%

4. Galloway, heavy favorite… 0%

5.Wildcard outcome…8%

Selected Comments

·         Governor Parson will win this election assuming he doesn’t have a primary. If he draws a credible primary opponent all bets are off.

·         I really like Galloway and I think she would be an excellent Governor. However, she would need a miracle to beat Parson. I myself, am a pro-choice person, and even I think the Dems have overestimated the support for the choice movement in general and grossly over estimated how motivated it is going to make specifically white women to vote for a democrat.

·         Parson wins, but it’s closer than most folks expect. Biden helps Dems outperform what they should do.

·         [Wildcard outcome]: Kehoe

·         Missouri is red, red, red

·         I would normally say “heavy favorite” for Parson because he’s likable and crushing it on the jobs front. But I think the draconian abortion law signed by Parson will impact suburban women enough to narrow the gap.

·         Trump will hurt Republicans in the suburbs, but Galloway can’t make this race competitive.

·         Some depends on who is the Presidential nominee for the Democrats, but it’s still hard to see a good path for Galloway considering she barely beat a train wreck of candidate in 2018.

 

Who Won the Week

East Coast MO – St. Louis County lands the Bunge headquarters, while the City preps to celebrate an expansion soccer team.

West Coast MO – A cease fire is declared in Kansas City between the two incentive bidding states.

Margie Vandeven – After being ousted in a Greitens-led coup, the DESE Commissioner unveils some bold proposals from her Police Committee, appearing to pick up right where she’d left off.

May Sheve Reardon – The sometimes controversial MO Lottery earned a coveted “excellent” rating from the auditor’s office.

Dave Sweeney – After finessing Build-A-Bear’s move downtown, the St. Louis lawyer/lobbyist put together another hot week. He’s representing the city’s new soccer team, and he signed up Jim McKelvey’s new venture, StarLake Holdings, as a client.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

$5K+Contributions

MO Architects PAC - $8,000 from American Institute of Architects of Missouri.