MOScout Weekender: Poll on Senate 5 - WWTW - Hallway on Senate Races and more...

Quote of the Week

Lobbyist: Was at [at event this week]… [Business executive] introduced the governor as “Parsons.” It just makes me cringe….

 

MOScout Poll: Senate 5

MOScout Weekly Poll looks at Senate 5, and the various possible candidate match-ups.  See full results here.

Survey conducted August 21 through August 22, 2019. 501 likely 2020 Democratic Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 Democratic Primary Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.5% with a 95% level of confidence. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding. Survey conducted by Remington Research Group on behalf of Missouri Scout.

Q1: What is your opinion of Jamilah Nasheed?

Favorable: 40%

Unfavorable: 18%

No opinion: 42%

Q2: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are Steve Roberts and Michelle Sherod. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Steve Roberts: 24%

Michelle Sherod: 21%

Undecided: 55%

Q3: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are Steve Roberts, Michelle Sherod and Megan Green. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Steve Roberts: 23%

Michelle Sherod: 11%

Megan Green: 32%

Undecided: 34%

Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 Democratic Primary Election for State Senate are Steve Roberts, Michelle Sherod and Peter Merideth. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Steve Roberts: 24%

Michelle Sherod: 13%

Peter Merideth: 20%

Undecided: 43%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Which State Senate District is Most Likely to Flip in 2020?

Which senate district is most likely to flip to 2020?  In parenthesis are the answers from when I asked this question back in January.  It looks like lobbyists now see Senate 17 and Senate 19 mostly off the table, with the action focused on Senate 1 and Senate 15.

RESULTS

1. Senate 1 Sifton (termed)…  44.8%  (29.6%)

2. Senate 3 Romine (termed)… 0%  (0%)

3. Senate 15 Koenig… 48.3%  (25.9%)

4. Senate 17 Arthur… 0%  (14.8%)

5. Senate 19 Rowden… 6.9%  (29.6%)

Sample Comments

·         If Ds are willing to be pragmatic and strategic they will ignore SD19 and put virtually all their available cash into SD1 and SD15 assuming Arthur can raise money to protect her seat. This type of focus could also bring in a couple of House seats.

·         If Rs fine the right candidate (Senate 1) is a winnable race.

·         I don't believe that Koenig will lose, but Trump will be a drag on him and he is unable to moderate his record – making this the race with the most potential to flip.

·         Koenig: If there is a large anti-Trump vote he has a problem. He isn’t moderate like Mike Gibbons and the district has become less Republican.

·         I don’t think the Ds have the campaign talent to take out an incumbent, and the 3rd is gone. So it’s either the 1st or 17th.

·         Koenig is the only one with an experienced opponent who is out raising money and may even attract national help. That being said, he's a hard worker and the seat is by no means going to be easy to flip.

 

Who Won the Week

LIHTC – A pair of gubernatorial appointments hint that this governor won’t sit on his hands forever waiting for a legislative “fix” for the tax credit program.

Mike Leara – The former state rep returns to public service, taking the gavel of the Missouri Gaming Commission.

Sunshine advocates – AG Eric Schmitt’s refusal to invoke the First Amendment as a shield against disclosing public information bodes well for those seeking transparency from their government.

??? – Not sure who wins with the governor’s call for a special session.  It seems like such a sliver of public policy, it’s hard to know who wins by tweaking the law a few months faster.  Is it auto dealers? Farmers? A lobbyist?  I just don’t know.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

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