MOScout Weekender: Rex Gives $250K to Parson PAC - Senate 19 Poll - WWTW - Hallway on Impeachment and more...

Another Rex Check for Parson PAC

Rex Sinquefield gave Uniting Missouri PAC, the pro-Mike Parson PAC, $250,000 yesterday.  That will put Uniting over $1 million in money raised in this quarter.

Sinquefield gave $1 million to Uniting last year, but hadn’t sent any large contributions to the committee this year.

Auditor Nicole Galloway’s team is expecting that national third-party PACs will provide some counterforce to Parson’s massive PAC war-chest. 

 

MOScout Poll: Senate 19

The MOScout Weekly poll looks at Senate 19.  This should be a swing district, but it’s unclear that Democrats can make it swing again.  President Donald Trump’s approval is underwater here, and yet both Parson and Sen. Caleb Rowden lead their opponents.  See the full results here.

Survey conducted September 25 through September 27, 2019. 446 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-4.7%. Totals do not always equal 100% due to rounding.

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?

Approve: 45%

Disapprove: 52%

Not sure: 3%

Q2: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for Governor of Missouri are the Republican Mike Parson and the Democrat Nicole Galloway. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Mike Parson: 49%

Nicole Galloway: 45%

Undecided: 6%

Q3: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for State Senate are Republican Caleb Rowden and Democrat Michela Skelton. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Caleb Rowden: 50%

Michela Skelton: 44%

Undecided: 6%

Q4: Possible candidates in the 2020 General Election for State Senate are Republican Caleb Rowden and Democrat Judy Baker. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Caleb Rowden: 49%

Judy Baker: 45%

Undecided: 6%

 

MOScout’s Hallway Index: Impeachment

I asked the Hallway, “How does the start of the impeachment process impact Missouri politics?” 29 responses…

RESULTS

1. Helps Dems…  3.4%

2. Helps Republicans…. 44.8%

3. No significant impact… 31.0%

4. Impossible to guess….  20.7%

Sample Comments

·         Unless there is something new out there, highly doubt that. This is about motivating the liberal base which may help them pick up seats in other states...but not Missouri.

·         My guess is it gins up the base more as Trump supporters likely view it as another “witch hunt”.

·         It'll rile up the base of both parties as the middle waits for the facts to unfold, so essentially no impact.

·         Every voter has made up their mind about Trump so I don’t see any significant impact. If we had more competitive districts it might matter, but with so few it really doesn’t matter.

·         Fires up both bases. But Republicans benefit more since their base is bigger.

·         It continues to make the Democratic look out of touch with a State Trump won by 19 points.

·         People are already dug in on this issue. I just don't see how it really changes behaviors. The Trump folks are in a perpetual state of playing the victim, now they just have another thing to show that everyone is out to get him. The real issue is does he deflect by doing something even crazier than normal like sending 50,000 soldiers to invade Tehran. That might make some parents just a little uncomfortable. Then again maybe that will be okay too.

 

Who Won the Week

LIHTC – This week, Governor Mike Parson declared to the mighty Jason Rosenbaum that the “legislature had their chance” and his administration is planning to move forward to restart the state tax credit program.

Greg Razer – Running in Senate 7, Razer kicked off this week. The big win: still no primary opponent in this solid Dem district.  One observer says he’s been “doing everything he needs to do to lock up the right support early.”

Caleb Rowden – This week’s MOScout poll shows Rowden will slim leads against his possible Democratic opponents, despite the same poll showing that Republican standard bearer, Donald Trump, is underwater in the district.  That’s the sort of positioning a Republican needs in this swing district.

Empower Missouri – Their “SNAP Challenge” gathers followers in the state legislature as nine state representatives take up the challenge to spend three days on simulated food budgets.

MOChamber – Honored in Denver this week as the 2019 State Chamber of the Year by the Council of State Chambers.

Find a downloadable version here.

 

New Committees

Jackson County Leadership PAC was formed.  Its treasurer is Mark Milton.

Missourians For A New Approach was formed.  It’s a campaign committee to support a ballot initiative for “adult use marijuana.”  Its treasurer is Mark Reading.

Anne Schweitzer formed a candidate committee (Citizens For Anne Schweitzer) to run for St. Louis City Alderman, Ward 13, as a Democrat.

 

$5K+Contributions

American Dream PAC - $12,350 from Missouri Leadership Forum.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,500 from MO DSV PAC.

House Republican Campaign Committee, Inc - $7,500 from RQC PAC.

House Victory Committee - $30,000 from UAW V CAP.

Uniting Missouri PAC - $250,000 from Rex Sinquefield.

 

Condolences

To Rob Vescovo on the passing of his mother, Barbara Lynn Wentworth.  See the obituary here.

Memorial Mass at Sacred Heart Catholic Church, Valley Park, Saturday, October 12, 2019, 10:30 a.m. Interment PRIVATE. In lieu of flowers, contributions may be made to Karmos Cancer Institute, Micheline Wentworth Fund for Ovarian Cancer Research.