MOScout Weekender: Poll on Medicaid Expansion - Hallway on Medicaid Expansion - Who Won the Week and more...

Hospital Association Adds $250K to Expansion Campaign

The Missouri Hospital Association added $250,000 to Missourians for Healthcare.  That’s the campaign committee formed to advance Medicaid expansion through an initiative petition.  And it shows the financial muscle behind the movement.  They’ve already reported over $1.6M in contributions just days after announcing the formal campaign launch.

MOScout Poll: Medicaid Expansion

Survey conducted September 4 through September 5, 2019. 910 likely 2020 General Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics for the 2020 General Election. Margin of Error is +/-3.3%.  See the full results here.  (Below in parenthesis are results from the same questions in December 2018).

Q1: Do you approve or disapprove of Mike Parson’s job performance as Governor of Missouri?

Approve: 50%  (46%)

Disapprove: 28%  (18%)

Not sure: 22%   (36%)

Q2: Do you favor expanding Medicaid to cover individuals up to 138% of the federal poverty level?

Yes: 44%   (46%)

No: 33%    (33%)

Not sure: 23%   (21%)

Q3: Some budget analysts believe that Medicaid expansion will result in net savings to the state budget.  Would you favor Medicaid expansion if it would save the state money?

Yes: 61%   (68%)

No: 22%    (17%)

Not sure: 17%    (15%)

Q4: Some budget analysts believe Medicaid expansion will cost between $100-$200 million annually.  Would you favor Medicaid expansion if a new tax were required to pay for it?

Yes: 34%   (32%)

No: 52%   (51%)

Not sure: 14%    (17%)

Q5: Do you think Medicaid expansion will save the state money OR Do you think Medicaid expansion will cost the state money?

Save the state money: 30%

Cost the state money: 49%

Not sure: 21%

MOScout’s Hallway Index: How Will the Medicaid Expansion Campaign Do?

The Hallway firmly believes that Medicaid Expansion will pass in 2020.  29 responses…

RESULTS

1. It will fail to gather enough signatures….  3.5%

2. It will gather enough signatures, but fail at the ballot box…. 17.1%

3. It will pass on the ballot, but be thrown out by courts… 3.5%

4. Successfully passed and implemented….  72.4%

5. No idea / no opinion….  3.5%

Sample Comments

·         If it doesn’t have opposition, it passes. If it has opposition, it dies.

·         Don’t see how it doesn’t pass unless there is an astronomical fiscal note…

·         Passed and implemented, but in a crappy way. Sort of how we provide Medicaid now… kick kids off of it so we can save a buck…

·         There is an appealing message here for voters and no organized opposition.

·         Any realistic person knows it’s the practical thing to do. I do not believe that Missouri voters have become the sort of ideologues that have been elected to the general assembly. The only thing that could be a game changer is if the education community makes the opponents’ arguments for them en masse and I don’t see that happening.

·         I think there’s a real possibility that this passes and that should terrify everybody who has a stake in the state budget. I dare the best budget minds to go fill that $400 million GR hole that would be required for state effort . Well, I guess you don’t need school transportation dollars if there aren’t schools to transport kids to.

Who Won the Week

Bill Eigel and Jim Lembke – The Conservative Caucus start-up landed their first round of funding as they imagine disrupting the business of politics in the Missouri Senate.

Medicaid Expansion advocates – Clean kick-off, truckloads of money, solid polling. So far, so good for this crew.

Amy Gunn – Name float in CD-2 spikes enough concern among Republicans that they lash out with a personal attack they hope pre-empts her candidacy.

Mike Parson – Enormous fundraiser in Kansas City hints a huge October number coming in next month’s reports.  Plus, attendance from the old Greitens cadre puts to rest rumors of a return from his predecessor.

Find a downloadable version here.

$5K+Contributions

American Dream PAC - $10,000 from Spire Missouri Inc.

Keep Government Accountable - $30,000 from Volunteer Political Fund Pipe Fitters Local Union 533.

POL PAC - $10,000 from J.E. Dunn Construction Company.

American Property Casualty Insurance Association Political Account - $121,952 from American Property Casualty Insurance Association.

Missourians for Healthcare - $250,000 from Missouri Hospital Association.

Congratulations

To Austin and Thea Walker on the birth of their first child… “Baby boy! Jude Ervin Walker - 8lbs 6oz”